Texas Winter 2014-2015

[aggiecutter]

Sounds like Austin is going to dodge any troubles.

Doesn't sound like PORTASTORM and the PWC headquarters staff agrees with the idea that ATX will dodge any troubles. I guess we'll know in 24 hours.

Oh, I don't agree at all. If you folks want to hang your hat on a model run which has been an anomaly compared to its previous runs ... a model run which is not based on any new ingested data, you go right ahead. Good luck with that. Until I see the RGEM and SREF and HRRR showing temps not going below freezing, I'm staying with my forecast. We've all see how horrible the GFS has been on temps in the last week. If you don't know about it, then you've been under a rock.

[TheProfessor]

12z RGEM drops about 4-5 inches of snow what looks to be on DFW.

[Portastorm]

6Z GFS says cold rain in Austin with surface temps 33-34 during the precip. As the precip ends Thursday morning the air column aloft cools enough for sleet. 6Z NAM is warmer than the GFS for the Austin area. 00Z Euro drops Austin's temps to around 33 on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, I went out to get the paper at 5:30 this morning and enjoyed the low of 70 degrees.

Not sure where you got your information, sir. I just saw a 0z Euro map which has the freezing line south of Travis County at 12z Thursday with a 0.10-0.25 QPF bullseye on it.

[downsouthman1]

Seems like the models have done quite a bit of flip-flopping regarding the Austin area. I'm not sure we will really know the extent of this until it is actually happening. That being said, it is shocking that there have been no warnings or even advisories issued here at this point. Seems that at least posting a Watch yesterday would have been wise.

EWX said one would be coming later. RGEM & SREF have not flip flopped on temps and gfs/nam have not been great on temps with arctic fronts this season, it's not atx cancel yet.

I was referring more to the GFS/NAM as far as the flip flopping goes. I know they are saying they will issue something later today, just seems like a Watch could have been issued leading up to that. Just an opinion.

I totally agree with your opinion.

[Tireman4]

6Z GFS says cold rain in Austin with surface temps 33-34 during the precip. As the precip ends Thursday morning the air column aloft cools enough for sleet. 6Z NAM is warmer than the GFS for the Austin area. 00Z Euro drops Austin's temps to around 33 on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, I went out to get the paper at 5:30 this morning and enjoyed the low of 70 degrees.

Not sure where you got your information, sir. I just saw a 0z Euro map which has the freezing line south of Travis County at 12z Thursday with a 0.10-0.25 QPF bullseye on it.

The Warm Meteorologists Weather Outlook....( Geared for those meteorologists that like the warm side of models and life)..

[Portastorm]

New 12z RGEM continues consistent and on board with a 6-hour-plus period of freezing rain and sleet for Austin. Appears to show a convective nature to the precipitation as well which could mean thundersleet.

[downsouthman1]

New 12z RGEM continues consistent and on board with a 6-hour-plus period of freezing rain and sleet for Austin. Appears to show a convective nature to the precipitation as well which could mean thundersleet.

I saw that as well. There's a central TX blob on that.

[SouthernMet]

New 12z RGEM continues consistent and on board with a 6-hour-plus period of freezing rain and sleet for Austin. Appears to show a convective nature to the precipitation as well which could mean thundersleet.

If Austin can get below freezing by midnight, this could be pretty significant.

[veedub63]

New 12z RGEM continues consistent and on board with a 6-hour-plus period of freezing rain and sleet for Austin. Appears to show a convective nature to the precipitation as well which could mean thundersleet.

That is NOT good news. Given that this potential event is forecast to occur within the next 15-18 hours (and I know this has been discussed ad nauseam), it would seem prudent for those in a position to provide warnings to the public to accomplish just that.

[SouthernMet]

Btw, models are really blowing up this event for DFW, SREF/RGEM and the NAM showing very significant snow/sleet accumulations, and don't forget the winds... #GrandFinale

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z RGEM shows a bullseye of 5" of snow over DFW, .5" of freezing Rain over Austin and 1" of sleet from San Angelo to Marshall. All of these values merit Winter Storm Warnings. All with temps in the 20s.

[stormlover2013]

Ralp anything for beaumont area are if it gets close to beaumont?

[Ralph's Weather]

Ralp anything for beaumont area are if it gets close to beaumont?

I doubt the freezing temps make it down there. I think that most of the freezing precip stays north of a College Station to Huntsville line though sleet could be seen tomorrow morning.

[Yukon Cornelius]

12Z RGEM shows a bullseye of 5" of snow over DFW, .5" of freezing Rain over Austin and 1" of sleet from San Angelo to Marshall. All of these values merit Winter Storm Warnings. All with temps in the 20s.

Could you post the 12z RGEM?

[Ntxw]

No change in thoughts for NTX, could be several inches of sleet then several inches of snow over it tonight. Hi resolution is really zoning in on Dallas, Collin, Rockwall counties as ground zero for some intense banding but it is an area wide event. Can FW issue wind advisories in tandem with WSW? I suspect some locales will experience near blizzard conditions in the wee hours when it switches over.

[Texas Snowman]

Less up towards the Red River I would assume?

[WacoWx]

I know its almost impossible to predict at this point, but will a flight be able to get out of DFW tomorrow at 6:30pm?

Odds of it not being cancelled?

[Ntxw]

Less up towards the Red River I would assume?

2-3 is the average for everybody depends on banding where they set up. Short range models sets up a strong band from Dallas up to Texarkana.

[Texas Snowman]

Not at my PC, curious if there are any similarities between this and the 2009 Christmas Eve storm?

[downsouthman1]

What really impresses me is this deep fetch of Pacific moisture:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash