Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST SUN MAR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MID
WEEK. BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH WILL BUILD INTO TUE MORNING THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME
NEXT 24-36 HRS AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY ON MONDAY. A
DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN MON NIGHT AND INTENSIFY THU THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS SFC TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A DRY AND WINDY ONE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTIPLE RED FLAG DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 12 HRS. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED MON.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 20G30KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO TUE MORNING AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 7-9FT TUE-WED. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH MID WEEK ON
BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ADVECT QUICKLY AFTER 12Z MON
WITH BKN CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS. SO NO RED FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED
ON MONDAY DESPITE STRENGTHENING WINDS. DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN
MON NIGHT AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
FROM THU ON. MULTIPLE RED FLAG DAYS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM TUE ON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 75 / 20 40 40 20
STT 77 73 78 75 / 20 40 40 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST MON MAR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL APPROACH NO MORE
CLOSELY THAN EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
WILL DRIFT TO JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE WILL...HOWEVER...
REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE NESTLED OVER COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH PROVIDING BRIEF SHOWERS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT INCREASE AGAIN BY
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS EXPECTS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
SOME DID BRUSH THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND ENTER ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES. A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING. SAINT THOMAS
REPORTED SIX ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THIS BAND WILL MOVE INTO
PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EAST. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.2
TO 1.4 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY WITH ONE VERY SHORT DIP
BELOW 1 INCH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
ONTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE
DIMINISHES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA TODAY TO CAUSE PSBL BRF MVFR ALL TAFS XCP
TJPS. MTN OBSCURATIONS. MOST SHRA WL NOT LWR CONDS. CONT TRADE WND
THRU AT LEAST TUE...E 18-32 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GO UP OVER MOST WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
SOME DRY AIR MAY STILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN OVER INTERIOR PUERTO
RICO TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES.
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE AREA. THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTH COAST AREAS WILL BE CONSIDERED AFTER THE
MORNING SOUNDING IS RECEIVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 86 74 / 50 40 30 30
STT 79 73 86 72 / 50 50 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST MON MAR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN WINDY/VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHARP DRYING EXPECTED TUESDAY AS SFC TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHEN. DRY AND
WINDY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE RED FLAG DAYS POSSIBLE. EVEN AS RIDGE SHOWS SOME
WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG
MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VCSH
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. THESE SHRA ARE MOVING QUICKLY
AND SHOULD BE BRIEF OVER ANY ONE AREA. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
AT AROUND 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS...MAINLY FROM THE EAST. WINDS
DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS...BUT PICKING UP AGAIN
AFTER 10/13Z TO 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY...REMAINING EASTERLY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TUE-WED WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS DO NOT
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DOWNSLOPE ENE WIND TOMORROW
AND ESPECIALLY WED WHICH WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING
ON THE SOUTH COAST. ALL GUIDANCE SHOW HEIGHT RISES AT ALL LEVELS
AND RISING SLP VALUES NEXT TWO DAYS ALL INDICATIVE OF DRYING/SINKING
MOTION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS...SIG FIRE WX POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST BOTH TUE AND WED. RED FLAGS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THU. WINDS
DO NOT DROP BELOW RFW CRITERIA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MULTIPLE
RED FLAG DAYS ARE LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 60
STT 73 86 72 85 / 20 20 20 60

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST TUE MAR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEK. EACH
DAY...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME BRINGING BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS COMING ACROSS/TOWARD THE
ISLANDS. THE STRONG SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY...
HOWEVER BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE CREATING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN.
ALTHOUGH BRIEF LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS BREEZY...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR AT TNCM AND TKPK IN -SHRA TIL 10/13Z
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ TIL 10/15Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
10-15 KTS...BUT INCRG AFTER 10/13Z TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS PSBL TO
30 KT. MTN OBSCURATIONS ERN PR TIL 10/16Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE SURROUNDING
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH CHOPPY SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WATERS. FOR
BEACH GOERS...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL BEACHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL SURF
ZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A DRYING TREND
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THEREFORE...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
COASTAL PLAINS...MONA ISLAND AND SAINT CROIX BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 73 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 72 85 73 / 20 30 30 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE MAR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID TO HIGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP INVERSION IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOME OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A FEW SHOWERS FORMED AND STREAMED OFF PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS NOTED AS A MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND PASSING
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY LIGHT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE STRONG CAP INVERSION AND LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL FAVOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND LOW PWAT VALUES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BRIEF VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH 10/23Z. SFC
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY AT 15-20 KT AND GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT
11/02Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT TO 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS BUT CONTINUED EASTERLY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AFTER 11/13Z TO ABOUT 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY. BRIEF SHRA POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR DUE TO
ROUGH WIND DRIVEN SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 22-25 KTS AND SEAS
REACHING UP TO 8 FT. HAZARDOUS SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RAPID DRYING TREND OF FUELS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMEDITIES WILL REMAIN LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS...MONA ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND
OF SAINT CROIX. FOR THIS REASON A WARNING FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY UNTIL 6 PM AST...AND A WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.FOR UPDATES...LOCAL FIRE
DEPARTMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGER SHOULD REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER MESSAGES ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 86 / 30 30 20 20
STT 73 85 75 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED MAR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING MID TO HIGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY
DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOCAL REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S BY SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING THE LOCAL REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFT
11/20Z IN PASSING SHRA OVER THE USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. EAST
WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL050.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 8 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TODAY...FROM 10 AM AST...THROUGH 6 PM AST TONIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 002 AND 014. FOR UPDATES...LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT AND
EMERGENCY MANAGER SHOULD REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER MESSAGES
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 74 / 30 20 20 20
STT 85 74 86 74 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST WED MAR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN SUBSIDENCE CAP AND STABLE CONDITION ALOFT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE RIDGE IS SO FAR NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WIND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL SLIGHTLY LOOSEN ITS HOLD AND RELAX
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PREVAILING
WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTED MOSTLY NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OR REPORTED. THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS. DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE PERIODS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND
FROM TIME TO TIME.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM...LATEST GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGESTS NO
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEAST TO JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES EXPECTED
TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...BRIEF -SHRA WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CIGS AT AROUND FL060 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND
12/02Z...LEAVING MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVER THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY THROUGH 12/24Z...DECREASING SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER
12/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 74 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 86 74 85 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MONDAY...
ERODING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNDER RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. A DRIER AIR MASS HAVE
STARTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...AS THIS DRY AIR DOMINATES THE
LOCAL REGION.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
GENERAL...LITTLE CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THRU MID MORNING IN PASSING -SHRA OVER THE USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS. EAST WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW
FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...FLATTENING OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BREEZE CONDITIONS FROM THE EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
BE KEPT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL BRING
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PR AND
ACROSS THE USVI MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT
THESE WERE QUICK TO DRY OUT AS DRIER AIR MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS CAUSED THE LOCAL WEATHER TO BE DRY WITH ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW-PR WHICH OBSERVED SOME
CLOUDS DEVELOPING WHEN THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGED IN THAT
AREA...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN NO RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THOSE
SECTIONS OF PR AS OF THIS WRITING. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
LATER BUT THOSE SHOULD BE BRIEF AND NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT...IF THEY
DEVELOP AT ALL.

GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS DOMINATING FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...LEAVING
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS IN THE NIGHTTIME AND
MORNING HOURS AND SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOONS WHEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO
STRONG WINDS...EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW
DAYS AGO. THESE WINDS WILL MOVE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY
QUICKLY...SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF OVER ANY ONE AREA. EXPECT
THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROBABLY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS DURG PRD. WND FM E 15-25 KTS...BCMG NE-N AND
DCR W/H UP TO FL250. FEW CLDS BTW FL025-FL060...FEW TOPS 100 OVR
WATER BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS...SFC WND FM E 10-20 KTS W/ OCNL GUST
PSBL UP TO 25 KTS OR SO. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS AS THE
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 22 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET UNTIL AT LEAST
SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 85 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
MOST SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY WEST SOUTHWEST UNDER A EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. FOR TODAY...AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.
THEREFORE...CLOUDINESS WITH PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MOST OF THE DAY.

THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUS...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT THE WIND
SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME. NOT CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PUSH PASSING -SHRA OVER NORTH AND EAST PR/USVI FROM TIME TO TIME.
THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TIST.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE NE AT 10-20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCA BUOY SHOWED SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. MARINE
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WHICH WERE IN EFFECT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 73 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 73 85 73 / 30 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVERGENCE AREA CAUSING A LINE OF CLOUDS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...LEAVING MAINLY
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE PLACE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN ISOLATED AREAS. THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. WINDS OBSERVED WERE LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AND THIS PATTERN WITH WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHICH
MEANS THAT EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY MOVE IN...THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
WITH LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. IN THE MORNING
HOURS...THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND CULEBRA AND THE USVI. THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY BE AROUND THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT THE WIND SHOULD BE WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SMALL
PATCHES OF MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME. NOT CHANGES
TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
GET CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS...HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR DURG PRD. WND FM NE BLO FL300 WITH STRONGEST L/LVL
WNDS BTW FL020-FL100...THEN BACKING AND BCMG FM N AND DCR W/HT UP TO
FL300. SCT-BKN CLD LYR BTW FL020-FL070...FEW TOPS 120...ISOLD
-SHRA/SHRA EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS...AND OVR E AND CTRL PR.
PARTIAL MTN TOP OBSCR WITH PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA ERN PR VCTY
PICO DEL ESTE. SFC WND NE 10 TO 15 KTS W/OCNL GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS.
NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED A LITTLE AS WINDS ARE
NOW UP TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UP TO 6 FEET FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 73 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 73 85 73 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS....MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
NORTH CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN...A BROAD POLAR LOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONT BOUNDARY SUPPORTED
BY THE POLAR LOW WILL STALL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THE
SHEARLINE/PREFERENTIAL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT AREA WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILING ACROSS PR
AND USVI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE ON FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE...A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
CAP WILL TRAP THE MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...LIMITING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE/PRE-FRONTAL THAT WILL AFFECT
THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING THE FREQUENCY OF THE
SHOWERS MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE
SHEARLINE AS A MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...SHALLOW CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
PUSH PASSING -SHRA OVER NORTH AND EAST PR/USVI DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME CLOUDINESS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE NE AT 10-15 KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 76 84 76 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SAT MAR 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE MAIN CURRENT BAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO USVI WILL OVERSPREAD PR THIS
EVE TO CAUSE MINIMAL SHOWERS MUCH OF TONIGHT. NEXT BAND IS
ARRIVING INTO LEEWARDS ATTM MAINLY SOUTH OF ST. MARTIN WHICH
WILL INCREASE SHOWERS FOR USVI AND EASTERN PR WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ARRIVAL OF THOSE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BRUSH
FIRE THREAT MINIMAL ON SUNDAY FOR SOUTH SECTIONS.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BE RATHER WEAK MUCH OF THIS WEEK SO
TRADE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. ALSO NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND GFS CURRENTLY DOES NOT PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER AS
HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES THIS WEEK. SHOWERS WILL STAY LIMITED BUT THE
SHOWERS WE DO HAVE WILL MOVE SLOWER AND LOCAL EFFECTS (SEA BREEZE
AND TERRAIN) WILL HAVE MORE TO SAY ABOUT LOCATION OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. -SHRA EMBEDDED IN TRADE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI AND EASTERN PR
TERMINALS. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE E-NE AT 10-15 KT GUSTING
IN THE LOW 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELL ARRIVED INTO BUOY 41046 EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH 7-8 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS ONLY WELL TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
ACCORDING TO MODELS AND ARE NOT DIRECTED TOWARDS LOCAL WATERS. SO
USED WNAWAVE FOR NO MORE THAN 7 FT SUN/SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF ISLANDS NEAR 35N IS PROGRESSING EAST AND TRADE WINDS WILL
BEGIN DROPPING OFF ON SUN WITH THE SLACKENING GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 73 86 / 40 40 30 30
STT 73 84 73 84 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. A
BROAD POLAR LOW WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY THE POLAR LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE
ISLANDS...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY A
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...AS MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THE BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION...THUS IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THE REGION WILL GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OVERALL...EXPECTING MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG NORTHERN COASTS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...DRYING EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...A MODERATE NORTH SWELL WILL
INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY AND MONDAY.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
FORECAST FOR TODAY AS THIS MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE
THE BREAKING WAVE HIGH UP TO 7 FEET ALONG THE NORTH COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 85 73 / 20 30 30 10
STT 84 73 83 73 / 20 40 40 10

[Gustywind]

Hi Cycloneye! Thanks for this daily job we appreciate us in all the Carib . Hope you're always in shape as usual (seems you are our SUPERMAN!), see you!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MID LATITUDES PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE
TAIL OF A WEAK JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDING EAST OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC CAUSING THE TRADE WINDS TO FLAG AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS CLOSE AS THE
20 DEGREE NORTH LATITUDE LINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN PATCHES OF MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
THAT APPROACHED ON WEDNESDAY BREAK AWAY AND RETURN TO THE AREA IN
NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS FORMED IN THE DOWN STREAM FLOW OF
SAINT THOMAS AND MOVED OVER THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE OF PUERTO
RICO. OTHERWISE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE REST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
NAM5 MODEL SHOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND PUSHING
ACROSS SAINT CROIX AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. BETTER SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURFACE WINDS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AND ONLY PATCHY
PASSING SHOWERS BEFORE MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES. -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ/TJSJ THRU AT LEAST 22Z.
FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE USVI AND PR...WITH SCT/BKN CIGS AT
LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE
USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS WITH LIGHT LAND BREEZES DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 PUSHED AS HIGH AS 9.8 FEET IN NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELL EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT DROPPED DOWN TO 8 TO 9
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELL HAVE NOT YET PUSHED INTO THE
LOCAL NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN TO
A LITTLE ABOVE 6 FEET WITH AN 11 SECOND DOMINANT PERIOD. EXPECT
THE SEAS TO CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING IN ZONE 712 OF OUR ATLANTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE PEAK
IN SWELL SURGES INTO THE AREA. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WEAK SURGE ON WEDNESDAY AND A STRONGER SURGE ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 73 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 73 83 71 84 / 30 30 20 10

[cycloneye]

Hi Cycloneye! Thanks for this daily job we appreciate us in all the Carib . Hope you're always in shape as usual (seems you are our SUPERMAN!), see you!

Welcome back to another hurricane season that gets closer and closer.Let's see how the tropical activity affects or not the Eastern Caribbean islands.The important thing is to be prepared no matter how the season is in terms of activity.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AMPLIFIES INTO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
AND HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM
AFFECTING LAND AREAS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. UNDER
THE PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
U.S.V.I. AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE RATHER WEAK AT 5-KT OR LESS AND SUPPORT VERY
SLOW MOVING CELLS. THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS TROUGH ALOFT MOVES AWAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL
BUILD FROM THE WEST AND HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES...
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A FEW TRADE
WIND SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES WITH BRIEF -SHRA CAUSING VCSH BEFORE 16/14Z. CIGS AT
AROUND FL050 ARE EXPECTED AT TNCM/TKPK UNTIL AROUND 16/12Z. AFTER
16/16Z...MTN OBSC AND SHRA EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 16/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SUBSIDING NORTH SWELLS WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KT MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST
PERIOD AND SUPPORT 3-5 FT SEAS TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 73 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON MAR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AND HOLD
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&


.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES QUICKLY TURNED
VARIABLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING AS A BAND OF OF MOISTURE MOVED
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL LOCAL
ISLANDS WITH MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH OF RAIN OVER
SAINT THOMAS AND ISOLATED AREAS OF EASTERN PR. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE AND LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECT CREATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

THE PULSE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. ON
TUESDAY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EAST COAST AND OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND THEN MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUT THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN TODAY.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND
HOLDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES...AND A GENERALLY FAIR
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
PR.


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR WILL BE DIMINISHING IN AND AROUND THE USVI
AS MDT-HVY SHRA MOVE WEST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS
ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PUERTO RICO. CONDS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN
THE USVI AS THEY HAVE IN THE LEEWARD ISLAND TAFS OF TNCM AND TKPK
AFT 16/21Z AND IN PR AFT 17/04Z. WINDS E 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NR SFC INCRG TO 30 KT AT FL050. WINDS DIMINISHING BY 17/12Z TO
NE 10 TO 15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE BELOW 5 FEET ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE ARRIVAL OF A 5 TO 6
FEET NORTH SWELL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
NORTHERN COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN USVI.
THEREFORE...A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 86 / 20 20 20 10
STT 73 85 73 84 / 10 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AS
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING EXPECTED FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK COLD FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM
AFFECTING USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. WINDS OVER LAND WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND A RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME
TO TIME...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA ARE STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY. A BRIEF WEAKENING OF RIDGE
ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE WEATHER PATTERN
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...UNDER RIDGE
ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLD -SHRA. AFTER 17/16Z...LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN RANGES INTO SW-PR CAUSING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...STRENGTHENING AFTER 17/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 10 TO 15 KT
WITH BRIEF GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-5 FT MOST OF THE 5-DY FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 73 / 20 10 20 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 30 30 40