South Atlantic 2015

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cycloneye
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South Atlantic 2015

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:53 pm

I am creating this general South Atlantic thread as it has been active and members would want to get information about this basin. There is a developing system at this time so the thread for it is at Atl Active Storms Forum.

Some history. Courtesy by Dr Bob Henson at WU.

South Atlantic tropical storm history

Tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that until 2011, there was no official naming of depressions or storms done. In 2011, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center instituted a naming system with nine names, of which two have been used so far (Arani in 2011, and Bapo in 2015.) If this week’s storm becomes a subtropical storm, it will be called Carl. Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of fewer than ten tropical or subtropical storms to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. An unnamed February 2006 storm may have attained wind speeds of 65 mph, and a subtropical storm brought heavy flooding to the coast of Uruguay in January 2009, killing fourteen people. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms).

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_SAtlantic.html
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Re: South Atlantic 2015

#2 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:11 pm

Here are the names for this basin by the Brazil Navy Hydrography Center. Arani was the first name used by the Navy.
Image
http://www.mar.mil.br/dhn/dhn/downloads/normam/normam_19.pdf - Page 18

Translated Portuguese to English:
1 - Bapo (Rattle)
2 - Cari (White Man)
3 - Deni (Indian Tribe)
4 - Eçaí (Small Eye)
5 - Guará (Water Bird)
6 - Iba (Bad)
7 - Jaguar (Wolf)
8 - Kamby (Milk)
9 - Mani (Indian Goddess)
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Re: South Atlantic 2015

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 01, 2015 12:07 pm

Maybe another one this year? This is the UKMET.





GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.04.2015



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 26.6S 46.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.04.2015 26.6S 46.0W MODERATE

12UTC 06.04.2015 26.9S 43.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.04.2015 27.0S 40.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.04.2015 28.2S 36.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: South Atlantic 2015

#4 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Apr 05, 2015 11:31 am

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.04.2015


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 28.2S 43.7W


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 06.04.2015 28.2S 43.7W WEAK

00UTC 07.04.2015 31.4S 36.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.04.2015 35.5S 29.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.04.2015 43.1S 18.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.04.2015 48.9S 7.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.04.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


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Re: South Atlantic 2015

#5 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:14 pm

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Re: South Atlantic 2015

#6 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Apr 06, 2015 5:56 am

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.04.2015


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 28.1S 42.1W


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 06.04.2015 28.1S 42.1W WEAK

00UTC 07.04.2015 30.5S 36.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.04.2015 37.4S 27.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.04.2015 43.9S 17.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.04.2015 49.0S 6.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.04.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


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