ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

That's 6C already!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm thinking of at least moderate this time.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Comparison 2014 and 2015, exactly a year apart. 2015 is obviously warmer and looks to be possibly stronger, with less cooler-than-normal waters and warm surface temperatures (surfaced) at the same time upwelling. Stronger El Niño more likely this time IMO.

2014



2015 (currently)

[Ntxw]

Both are comparable, the biggest difference is 2015 surface is already in a nino so if the atmosphere couples then it has a better starting point.

[Yellow Evan]

If and this is a huge if, we can get consistent WWB activity, I see no reason why we get get to moderate El Nino status by summer, and possibly strong by autumn. Huge if though.

[Hurricaneman]

The next month will be crucial as currently according to tropical tidbits the ENSO 1-2 are well below normal and it seems as though the ENSO 3 area is dropping currently to about .1 above normal because the only ENSO area thats EL Nino like is the 4 region and its near +1.5 which is the main reason that the ENSO 3\4 region is at +.7 but that warm subsurface is of some interest but will the MJO do what its been doing the last few months and not fully circle the Pacific and not have the WWB make it across and not bring those subsuface anoalies to the surface or will the MJO pulse actually make it all the way across the Pacific with the WWB and help make El Nino go more traditional thats the real question

[Ntxw]

The next month will be crucial as currently according to tropical tidbits the ENSO 1-2 are well below normal and it seems as though the ENSO 3 area is dropping currently to about .1 above normal because the only ENSO area thats EL Nino like is the 4 region and its near +1.5 which is the main reason that the ENSO 3\4 region is at +.7 but that warm subsurface is of some interest but will the MJO do what its been doing the last few months and not fully circle the Pacific and not have the WWB make it across and not bring those subsuface anoalies to the surface or will the MJO pulse actually make it all the way across the Pacific with the WWB and help make El Nino go more traditional thats the real question

Whether it's a modoki or traditional it's not too important at this time. ENSO goes through various looks at different parts of the year, I think we overvalue this idea too much. Strength and placement of large scale SST's is a more important figure. We've seen time and again ENSO 1+2 can drastically change very quickly either way.

[Yellow Evan]

Strength and placement of large scale SST's is a more important figure. We've seen time and again ENSO 1+2 can drastically change very quickly either way.

Well, the warm SST's are displaced to the west than normal El Ninos, hence the Modoki look. It is something to keep an eye on.

[dexterlabio]

the only crucial thing to see in the coming days is if a strong MJO pulse will indeed circle the Pacific....that'd be a closed deal IMO for a stronger ENSO event if it happens... That is actually what last year lacked; a strong MJO that maintains all the way eastward...


Just a lookback...a very strong MJO pulse was the one that kickstarted the 2009 El Nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IDK but because the pool had already surfaced, El Niño conditions have arrived, and that the warm pool is just as warm as last year, coupled with a strong WWB and incoming MJO, I think it is safe to say that there would be at least a moderate to strong El Niño this year and would not end up like last year. We even had a category 4 typhoon (Higos) at such unusual time of year, last month.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 3/9/15 has Nino 3.4 at +0.5C. The update discuss about the warm subsurface pool and the ONI that is at +0.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · 1h 1 hour ago
The strongest ever observed March RMM Phase 7 amplitude of 3.85 was back in 1997. That # could be rivaled next week.

[Ntxw]

Strength and placement of large scale SST's is a more important figure. We've seen time and again ENSO 1+2 can drastically change very quickly either way.

Well, the warm SST's are displaced to the west than normal El Ninos, hence the Modoki look. It is something to keep an eye on.

Yeah, I was leaning more towards the overall Ocean SST's not just ENSO. Strength of ENSO imo is still more important than what type it is. And as mentioned they go through different looks during their lifespan. Often during the summer and fall favor the eastern look then as they wane in the winter and later winter early spring they progress back west.

This ENSO event is very much driven (or net result from) the connection it has with the Northern Hemisphere PDO

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake EricBlake12
Can't believe Twitter isn't buzzing at all about the March ECMWF monthly fcsts- even more anomalous than 1 y ago leading to super Nino hype

[Ntxw]

February PDO is out. Down a little from January but still outrageously high at +2.30. In fact it is the highest February +PDO on record back to record keeping. Just crazy. March is going to come in with another very high value.

[cycloneye]

February PDO is out. Down a little from January but still outrageously high at +2.30. In fact it is the highest February +PDO on record back to record keeping. Just crazy. March is going to come in with another very high value.

Surprised me the release as they do it on mid months. But data is still very positive as you said.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,with the big MJO pulse comming,the big WWB that is going to sweep eastward but still the 4 areas are cooling,what is going on?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,with the big MJO pulse comming,the big WWB that is going to sweep eastward but still the 4 areas are cooling,what is going on?

There are anomalous easterlies in the eastern regions while the WWB is occurring out west. It has more implications of pushing the warm water below rather than the surface at least until it comes up. We are naturally in the time of year with seasonal variability that tends to weaken ENSO.

[cycloneye]

This discussion about the PDO was posted at WU and I found it good to share it here.

For the 3rd month in a row, according to JISAO, the ongoing +PDO is once again in record territory (@ +2.30), easily beating out February 1941...

Thus, this past winter's averaged PDO was also a record, & by a wide margin...
The top 7 & 8 of these top 10 +PDO winters (all except 1983-84 & 1926-27) were juxtaposed within multi-year El Ninos/+ENSO events. That's very likely not just mere coincidence. I've been under the impression until recently that for the most part the PDO is largely an artifact of or a reddened response to ENSO, perhaps there's more of a two-way relationship, particularly with exceptional wintertime +PDO regimes influencing the longevity of El Ninos (i.e. extreme +PDOs favoring longer El Ninos). Of course, last spring's extraordinary downwelling Kelvin Wave, lacking an extraordinary ENSO response like it's 1997-98 counterpart, contributed appreciably to this current configuration, w/ a considerable proportion of this displaced & anomalously warm water from the West Pacific warm pool being flushed into the extratropical North Pacific...
2014-15 2.42
1940-41 2.06
2002-03 1.98
1986-87 1.80
1935-36 1.77
1939-40 1.76
1905-06 1.60
1983-84 1.47
1976-77 1.33
1926-27 1.29

[Ntxw]

This discussion about the PDO was posted at WU and I found it good to share it here.

For the 3rd month in a row, according to JISAO, the ongoing +PDO is once again in record territory (@ +2.30), easily beating out February 1941...

Thus, this past winter's averaged PDO was also a record, & by a wide margin...
The top 7 & 8 of these top 10 +PDO winters (all except 1983-84 & 1926-27) were juxtaposed within multi-year El Ninos/+ENSO events. That's very likely not just mere coincidence. I've been under the impression until recently that for the most part the PDO is largely an artifact of or a reddened response to ENSO, perhaps there's more of a two-way relationship, particularly with exceptional wintertime +PDO regimes influencing the longevity of El Ninos (i.e. extreme +PDOs favoring longer El Ninos). Of course, last spring's extraordinary downwelling Kelvin Wave, lacking an extraordinary ENSO response like it's 1997-98 counterpart, contributed appreciably to this current configuration, w/ a considerable proportion of this displaced & anomalously warm water from the West Pacific warm pool being flushed into the extratropical North Pacific...

So in a sense what the author is trying to say is that the anomalous large warm pool instead of fully directing it's impacts into a full blown intense Nino was instead an influence into spreading out the +PDO and prolonging this event well into 2015? I guess it could make sense given this +PDO regime began around the same time the pool emerged. This year's warm pool is every bit as mean it seems. For sure though this +PDO spike is more than just a fleeting spike, it's lasted well over 13 months and possibly at least a 2 year deal.