SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

gettin a bit more symmetrical and looks like the eye is about to clear

[Yellow Evan]

I have a hard time believing this is even a category 5...Looks more like 100 to 125 knots...Eyewall remains open and not as warm as it should be...It's cold cloud tops can really fool anyone which dvorak likes to rate...

Since that pass, Pam structurally has gotten much better.

[cycloneye]

Webcam at island of Vanautu.

http://www.telsatbb.vu/Public_Cams_Live.aspx?CamID=5

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 15:50:32 S Lon : 169:18:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 913.7mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -23.3C Cloud Region Temp : -83.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.5 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS41 PHFO 122321
TCSSP1

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2321 UTC THU MAR 12 2015

A. Tropical cyclone Pam.

B. 12/2232Z.

C. 15.6°S.

D. 169.2°E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HR.

G. Ir/eir/vis.

H. Remarks: Dg eye temp with sufficiently wide surrounding cmg yields eye pattern of 6.5 with 0.5 eye adjustment, thus DT is 7.0. MET is 7.0. PT is 6.5. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions 12/1749Z 14.9°S 169.2°E amsu 12/1817Z 14.8°S 169.3°E ssms 12/1844Z 15.0°S 169.3°E ssms.

[Yellow Evan]

2015MAR12 233200 6.8 908.6 134.8 6.8 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -23.34 -83.01 EYE -99 IR N/A -15.84 -169.31 COMBO MTSAT2 33.5

[cycloneye]

17P PAM 150313 0000 15.9S 169.3E SHEM 140 918

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 15:56:55 S Lon : 169:17:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 911.1mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -25.2C Cloud Region Temp : -83.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.5 degrees

[euro6208]

Still moving south of west in the direction of Port Villa...

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:59:39 S Lon : 169:11:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 911.1mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -25.2C Cloud Region Temp : -83.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.5 degrees

[Alyono]

30 kts gusting to 40 kts at Port Villa. Pressure now 977mb

[Alyono]

sustained 37 mph winds, TS winds imminent. Pressure fallen to 976mb

[HurricaneBill]

30 kts gusting to 40 kts at Port Villa. Pressure now 977mb

I think later on, Aneityum will be a location to watch as the center is forecasted to come close there.

[HurricaneBill]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bnx1Lk7Hy4U[/youtube]

[Alyono]

30 kts gusting to 40 kts at Port Villa. Pressure now 977mb

I think later on, Aneityum will be a location to watch as the center is forecasted to come close there.

think its going right over Port Vila

[Yellow Evan]

30 kts gusting to 40 kts at Port Villa. Pressure now 977mb

I think later on, Aneityum will be a location to watch as the center is forecasted to come close there.

Port Villa looks like the exact target actually

[Alyono]

39 mph gusting to 51 mph. TS winds have arrived as of 0230 UTC

975mb. Pressure falling like a brick

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 16:14:47 S Lon : 169:10:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 903.2mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -20.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees

[Alyono]

could be a 160 kt direct strike on Port Vila. This looks to be going full Haiyan on us

[Yellow Evan]

2015MAR13 013200 7.2 897.0 146.0 7.2 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -20.37 -82.42 EYE -99 IR N/A -16.25 -169.17 COMBO MTSAT2 33.6

Hmm, I'd go 145 then.