New NHC products and revisions: 2015 season

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20150318_p ... hanges.pdf

Some of the highlights:

1) More emphasis on storm surge inundation areas...including prototype watches and warnings.

2) Storm surge maps (introduced in 2014) continue on an experimental basis, likely to become operational in 2016.

3) Changes to disturbance probabilities - 30% becomes yellow (low) and 60% becomes orange (medium).

4) 5-day disturbance forecasts become operational.

5) Advisory cycles change - no more 2-hourly intermediate advisories, replaced by 3-hourly with hourly updates. Does not preclude Special Advisories if necessary.

6) More products will use mixed case, like the TCD and TWO did in 2014.

7) Use of local time (based on Mexican and Central American standards) for EPAC products, instead of always using PDT/PST.

8) The cone is shrinking a little more.

[TheAustinMan]

I would also like to add a reminder that the NHC forecast cone is based the margin-of-errors of past forecast tracks as usual. It's not dynamic and does not change in size depending on how confident the NHC is. Also, the cone doesn't reflect the size of the storm; you may be outside of the cone and still be impacted. Check for what watches/warnings your local weather office or National Hurricane Center has for your location instead of relying too much on the forecast track per se.

[CrazyC83]

I would also like to add a reminder that the NHC forecast cone is based the margin-of-errors of past forecast tracks as usual. It's not dynamic and does not change in size depending on how confident the NHC is. Also, the cone doesn't reflect the size of the storm; you may be outside of the cone and still be impacted. Check for what watches/warnings your local weather office or National Hurricane Center has for your location instead of relying too much on the forecast track per se.

That is always important and needs to be emphasized.