WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 163.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. A 260359Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Latest model runs closely clustered with a track south of Guam...

[euro6208]

Looks like a majority of the models have this strengthening big time as it passes south of Guam...

CMC has a big typhoon in store for Yap...

NAVGEM 979 mb typhoon recurving west of the Marianas...

EURO with each run is stronger bottoming out at 968 mb with a track north of Tacloban

GFS previously got this down to 917 mb but is much weaker in latest run, 962 mb before a weakening trend towards Luzon...

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 260902
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 26/0832Z

C. 6.4N

D. 160.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/0754Z 6.5N 160.3E SSMIS


...SALEMI

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's amazing, all models except the JMA model show this as a strong typhoon, even the very conservative ECMWF. This is probably gonna bring one of the biggest wind reversals (together with other possible tropical developments) during this time of year, maybe enhance the westerlies. Probably this, as well as the past three storms (Mekkhala, Higos and Bavi), is a product of the favorable conditions or conductivity brought by the ENSO state right now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest ECMWF Runs trend south. Hope it does not hit Ormoc, where we're heading...

Latest run is MUCH FARTHER south, from the southern/south-central part of Luzon they shift to the northern part of Cebu or north-central part of Visayas by TAU 216, without anymore taking the NW-ward shift in direction shown in previous runs.

[euro6208]

06Z GFS still a strong typhoon but weakens considerably as it stalls east of Luzon for over 2 days due to upwelling of cold water

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN21 PGTW 261030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.8N 162.3E TO 8.0N 155.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 160.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 260853Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271030Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 260912

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF POHNPEI)

B. 26/0832Z

C. 6.70N

D. 160.20E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET YIELDS A 1.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow, getting organized. Flare up of convection over it's approximate LLCC.

[euro6208]

Nothing interesting so far from that island in the path, Pohnpei...

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 261210
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 PM CHST THU MAR 26 2015

PMZ172-173-270200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-
1000 PM CHST THU MAR 26 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN POHNPEI STATE...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIDED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM PINGELAP IN POHNPEI STATE TO BE NEAR 6.5N 160.1E.
THIS IS ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL...135 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF POHNPEI AND 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN. THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER.

THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE IT CLOSE TO IF NOT
OVER MOKIL TONIGHT AND POHNPEI AND PAKIN SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE RANGE OF 20
TO 25 MPH WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOCATED WEST OF THE CENTER.

AT THIS TIME ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CAN
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE THE ISLANDS OF MOKIL...POHNPEI AND PAKIN.
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AT THIS TIME.

ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE SHOULD KEEP ADVISED ON FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

$$

ZIOBRO/EDSON

[euro6208]

Nevertheless, this should bring strong winds over Guam and the Marianas due to interaction with this system and a high to it's north...

Can't wait for the breezy weather

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nevertheless, this should bring strong winds over Guam and the Marianas due to interaction with this system and a high to it's north...

Can't wait for the breezy weather

Atm the models are trending the track to the S of Guam they have the system being steered W by the lower level ridge. If the system becomes very strong before approaching Guam it could then be steered by the upper level westerly winds and not the lower level str and a NE recurve in the track may put the system a lot closer to Guam or even in the path.

Nope. The stronger it gets, the more west it goes and weaker storms get pulled up by the passing trough more easily compared to stronger storms. This was the case with other storms, like Bopha and Haiyan. As Haiyan moved through the STR, it followed a west NW track, but when it got stronger and peaked, its track shifted west and went south of the forecast tracks. Bopha had this too. Because of less favorable conditions, Bopha weakened and moved WNW. However after an EWRC and encountering better environmental conditions, Bopha intensified further and went MUCH south compared to the forecast because instead of a Central/North Visayas hit, Bopha hit Mindanao. But as it weakened its track went more Northwesterly. There are countless more examples of this, but sometimes this does not occur, rarely, like Nuri, which was easily picked up by a trough and harmlessly recurved away from the Philippines and Japan.

Evidently, it is shown by the models that when this future typhoon peaks or is holding on to a stronger intensity, then it moves along with the flow of the STR. What ECMWF shows is that it remains stronger for a longer period of time compared to others as it is surrounded by favorable conditions and because of that, the typhoon executes a more westerly track over the Central Philippines. GFS shows also a realistic scenario, as it moves west, it stays over favorable conditions, and the trough moves enough to reach the storm. It encounters less favorable conditions and therefore weakens. As it weakens, the storm moves slowly and upwells the water. Finally, they show the storm shift Northwestward. The latest runs from NAVGEM and CMC/GEM trended south/west as conditions down over Yap/Palau, Carolinas and Central/Southern Philippines, are more favorable because of warmer sea surface temperatures and lower vertical wind shear.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

98W has flaring convection now. Deep reds and a TCFA has been issued. It continues to get better organized.




Analysis for 98W: http://goo.gl/qYZQou

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[xtyphooncyclonex]

Beautiful morning view. Center now over Pohnpei and is very much poised to become TD 04W in the next few hours.

[cycloneye]

LLC not exposed as it was 24 hours ago.

[1900hurricane]

Visible imagery is showing low-level spiral banding on the east side of the central convection, inferring a closed low level circulation under the eastern half of the convection. Looks like an upgrade will be coming soon.

[mrbagyo]

Philippine sea is not that steamy right now

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haiyan took place over the NE monsoon