SIO: NATHAN - Post-Tropical

[TheAustinMan]

Nathan appears to have made landfall between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville at 5am local time as a Category 4 (Australian scale) cyclone and is now moving inland. The weather station at Cape Flattery, which experience the edge of the southern eyewall, recorded peak winds of 65kts and peak gusts of 87kts earlier today. Operational intensity for Nathan is 90kts.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Issued at 5:52 am CST Friday 20 March 2015.



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 5:30 am CST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 155 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 15 kilometres of 14.6 degrees South, 144.7 degrees East .
Movement: west at 19 kilometres per hour .

[mrbagyo]

If TC NATHAN's LLCC is still intact when it enters the GOC it should have no problem re intensifying there are excellent lift values -4/-6 for the storms to soar and the cape values and SST are better than what NATHAN had in Coral Sea.

yeah, Nathan's show is far from over.
JTWC expects Nathan to reintensify into hurricane intensity once in the GOC.
JTWC's GOC track looks weird - a bit similar to Monica.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Issued at 1:49 pm CST Saturday 21 March 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 12:30 pm CST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.7 degrees South, 139.9 degrees East , 170 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 380 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is currently a category 1 system located offshore west of Cape Keerweer in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is moving steadily west northwest.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan will continue to move across the Gulf of Carpentaria today and intensify as it heads towards the east Arnhem Land coast, making landfall
on Sunday morning as a category 2 system.

18P NATHAN 150321 0600 13.7S 139.3E SHEM 40 993

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Issued at 11:00 pm CST Saturday 21 March 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 9:30 pm CST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.4 degrees South, 138.4 degrees East , 225 kilometres southeast of Nhulunbuy and 225 kilometres east northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: west northwest at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Nathan has intensified into a category 2 system and is moving west northwest across the Gulf of Carpentaria.
It is expected to make landfall on the east Arnhem Land coast during Sunday morning before weakening slightly during Sunday afternoon, as it moves northwest
away from the northern Top End coast.

18P NATHAN 150321 1200 13.2S 138.4E SHEM 50 985

[Yellow Evan]

TXPS22 KNES 211829
TCSWSP

A. 18P (NATHAN)

B. 21/1801Z

C. 13.0S

D. 137.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...BANDING OF 1.0 YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET IS 2.5 FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT TREND. PT IS 3.0 BASED ON CONSTRAINT THAT PT CANNOT BE
GREATER THAN .5 OVER THE MET. FT IS 3.5 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/1232Z 13.2S 138.3E AMSU
21/1628Z 13.0S 137.6E AMSU


...VELASCO

[TheAustinMan]

First visible this morning.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Nathan
Issued at 5:03 pm CST Sunday 22 March 2015.



Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 4:30 pm CST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.1 degrees South, 136.0 degrees East , 85 kilometres west of Nhulunbuy and 45 kilometres east of Galiwinku .
Movement: west northwest at 13 kilometres per hour .

The centre of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is moving across Arnhem Bay, west of Nhulunbuy.
Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE approaching Elcho Island late this afternoon.

Cyclone Nathan is expected to increase in intensity overnight tonight once it returns to open water, possibly reaching Category 3.
Cyclone Nathan is expected to then move parallel to the coast, weakening to a Category 1 or 2 system before making landfall.

18P NATHAN 150322 0600 12.2S 135.9E SHEM 60 978

[cycloneye]

Just moved into the Southern Indian Ocean basin.

[Yellow Evan]

I take it it is re-entering the AUS.

[Alyono]

large scale environmental conditions are becoming less favorable. That is likely why the global models are killing this

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Thursday 26 March 2015
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 29 March 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
At 1:00pm WST the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Nathan was located over
northern parts of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and is forecast to move into the
Western Region (i.e. west of longitude 125E) on Friday. Due to how
significantly the system weakened as it moved over the Northern Territory and
the somewhat unfavourable environmental conditions that it is currently moving
through, it is expected to be below tropical cyclone intensity when it reaches
the Western Region. The majority of computer model guidance suggests that the
system will remain below tropical cyclone intensity, however there is a window
of time between Friday and Sunday when conditions are marginally more
favourable and there is a slight risk of redevelopment.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low

18P NATHAN 150326 1800 13.3S 127.3E SHEM 20 1010

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS
OF TC 18P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
A 261411Z GPM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE AND IN RECENT RADAR DATA.
THE CIRCULATION LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

[jaguarjace]

Bureau of Meteorology's report on Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan:
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sevwx/qld/qldtc20150310.shtml