WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

¡Finalmente! Es aquì.

Pero el tiempo, viento y latitud/longitud aun no se actualizo..

04W FOUR 150326 1800 6.7N 158.8E WPAC 20 1008

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TD
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 27 March 2015
<Analyses at 27/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°55'(6.9°)
E157°40'(157.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°00'(7.0°)
E156°00'(156.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Camp now divided into two

UKMET, ECMWF & CMC agree on a landfall over the Philippines, with UKMET showing a Central Visayas pummel. On the other hand, models GFS and NAVGEM show a recurve, with NAVGEM plowing it all the way close or near to Japan.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW! JTWC favoring a west running monster at 100 kts. Hope this does not end up like Peipah or Bavi.. Lol

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 6.8N 158.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8N 158.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 7.1N 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 7.4N 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 7.6N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 7.8N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 8.4N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 9.2N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.3N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 157.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 262330Z ASCAT
PASS AND COINCIDENT METOP-A 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND A CONSENSUS OF
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TD
04W HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH NEWLY-FORMED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE CIRCULATION,
DESPITE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OBSERVED OVER THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH ONLY THE NAVGEM
MODEL DEPICTING A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY
MODEL GROUPING. GIVEN THE STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING SCENARIO AND
TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED DUE
TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY CONTINUED
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS TD 04W TRACKS ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERIPHERY.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DECREASES AND OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS REMAIN IN PLACE. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TD Four looks very good. It just needs some more sustained convection to work with it. This might be one to watch.



Analysis for TD Four: http://goo.gl/BD8UfR


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[tdp]
Follow us on

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very much more organized than earlier today, center right over the ball of thick convection or small CDO.

[ohno]

WTF is this?!?! Strong storm in the Philippines??? It is APRIL for f**ks sake!!! Stop messing up the earth people!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Getting more organized as blowups of convection and consolidation happen by the hour, despite light--to-moderate northeasterly wind shear.

[euro6208]

Oh we are opening a 5 star hotel and a major typhoon passing south of us

[euro6208]

WTF is this?!?! Strong storm in the Philippines??? It is APRIL for f**ks sake!!! Stop messing up the earth people!

El Niño...

[euro6208]

JTWC up to 2.5, could we see a TS?

TPPN10 PGTW 270611

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (W OF POHNPEI)

B. 26/0532Z

C. 7.17N

D. 157.58E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/21HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT WERE UNAVAILABLE AS WE WERE
TOO WEAK 24 HOURS AGO. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270251
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...6.9N 157.7E

ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 15 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 560 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 595 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 990 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7 EAST...AND
MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SATURDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 500 PM BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM
THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 270359
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST FRI MAR 17 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W FORMS NEAR POHNPEI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN AFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.9N DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.7E DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 35 MILES WEST OF POHNPEI
15 MILES WEST OF PAKIN
145 MILES WEST OF MOKIL
340 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
400 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
595 MILES EAST PULUWAT
560 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
990 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WILL MOVE AWAY FROM POHNPEI AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD CHUUK STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT TRACK
OF TD 04W INDICATES IT WILL PASS APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES NORTH OF
LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...20 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 50 MILES
SOUTH OF FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TD 04W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEST 24 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


...FANANU...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET SATURDAY THEN TO
BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. ALSO...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The UKMO model did a very spot on job when predicting the track of Hagupit, when they showed Samar landfall and a sudden northwesterly turn to southern Luzon. Let's see what they predict now...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, I disagree with a recurve (again) away from the Philippines because the ridge appears stronger the lower the pressure (or the stronger) of the storm gets. The STR is holding strong and is in fact, stronger. There's a weakness in the ridge, though it appears to be over the SCS which means possible recurve after traversing Southern Luzon/Visayas. The ridge actually is steady and is unlikely to propagate eastwards, and that the position of the STR over Luzon is too far south to be caught or weakened by troughs up north.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/movies/wgmsdlm4/wgmsdlm4java.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh we are opening a 5 star hotel and a major typhoon passing south of us

What's the name of the hotel? Amazing, you're opening it.

Is it this one, Dusit Thani?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11395946

Well back on topic, ummm probably based on your location the impacts may be some rough waves there, some showers and strong winds. Good thing it's just south of where you are (Guam) but this is quite dangerous because of its possible rapid intensification.

[talkon]

04W FOUR 150327 1200 7.4N 156.6E WPAC 35 996

Tropical Storm by JTWC

[cycloneye]

15:00 UTC JTWC warning upgrades to 35kts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Many ensemble members of the different global dynamical models, or a majority, agree on a track towards Visayas/South Luzon/Mindanao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kpaV-mAcMM