WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneTracker2031]

JTWC upgraded this for TS Four. This system is gaining more sustained convection which it needs to fire up in the future. TS Warnings are in effect in Guam and this could be one to seriously watch and monitor.



Analysis for TS Four: http://goo.gl/f15eY2

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271346
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
1145 PM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 04W STILL HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 156.2E

ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS STILL
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

Very large 5 day cone for Tropical Storm 04W!

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 271535
TCSWNP

A. 04W (NONAME)

B. 27/1432Z

C. 7.4N

D. 156.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/1126Z 7.5N 156.4E AMSU


...KIBLER

TPPN10 PGTW 271508

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (W OF POHNPEI)

B. 27/1432Z

C. 7.47N

D. 156.39E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 2.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/1032Z 7.20N 156.95E MMHS
27/1126Z 7.60N 156.73E MMHS


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 271630
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 04W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

...TROPICAL STORM 04W MOVING TOWARD CHUUK STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU
AND ULUL IN CHUUK STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
290 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
295 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
455 MILES EAST OF ULUL
490 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
880 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL MOVE WEST TODAY...CROSSING INTO CHUUK STATE
LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS FORECAST TO PASS
ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF LOSAP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN PASS
ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH OF CHUUK AND 25 MILES SOUTH OF FANANU LATER ON
SUNDAY MORNING. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO WEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...FANANU...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE
OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...ULUL...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TO EAST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY...INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND
11 FEET TONIGHT. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF 04W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED REEFS FOR
MOST ISLANDS AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK STATE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 900 AM THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

Quite a large area of tropical storm force winds...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 MAR 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 7:34:36 N Lon : 155:55:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1004.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.9 3.4

Center Temp : -59.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.5 degrees

[euro6208]

GFS for the past few runs have been hinting of at least a 927 mb monster into Yap and Luzon...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgraders to TS MAYSAK.

TS 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 27 March 2015
<Analyses at 27/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°50'(7.8°)
E156°10'(156.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°40'(7.7°)
E152°30'(152.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°55'(7.9°)
E147°50'(147.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°40'(8.7°)
E142°10'(142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 271910
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 AM CHST FRI MAR 27 2015

...TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK...FANANU
AND ULUL OF CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 155.9E

ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 860 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.9 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...TAKING MAYSAK BETWEEN CHUUK AND
FANANU SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH...BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY 800 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 11 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

GFS strengthens Maysak into a typhoon in just 18 hours or so...

938 mb over Yap, peaks at 929 mb in the Philippine sea and makes landfall over Luzon as a typhoon...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 MAR 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 7:33:02 N Lon : 155:38:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1004.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.5

Center Temp : -81.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.3 degrees



Rapid intensification could be on it's way...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 747 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTLY
CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS FURTHER
IDENTIFIED IN A 271757Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS THE BULK OF
CONVECTION IN THE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND EIR LOOP WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONSENSUS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND SUPPORTED BY RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP. TS MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. LOW VWS, EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, RESULTING IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MAYSAK WILL TRANSITION TO A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY,
ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE, PRIOR TO LEVELING OUT AT 100 KNOTS. THIS
REDUCED INTENSIFICATION IS CAUSED BY AN INFLUX OF DRY STABLE AIR IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND REDUCED OUTFLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING STR;
HOWEVER, SSTS AND VWS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[ohno]

Will this be the first storm to hit the philippines in april if ever?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Will this be the first storm to hit the philippines in april if ever?

Actually no because there have been many storms in the past, but not as strong and powerful than this. We only had a weak tropical storm named Peipah last year, locally Domeng, hit Mindanao.

[cycloneye]

Impressive structure.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 272154
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

...TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU AND CHUUK IN CHUUK
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE AND FARAULEP IN
YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE...AND
SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.6N 155.4E

ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST..2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.4 EAST...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY...TAKING MAYSAK BETWEEN
CHUUK AND FANANU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH...BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION
IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY BY 2 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kts.

04W MAYSAK 150328 0000 7.6N 154.9E WPAC 45 989

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 280015

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 27/2332Z

C. 7.44N

D. 154.84E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET YIELDS A 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/1950Z 7.45N 155.90E WIND
27/2122Z 7.57N 155.83E SSMS


LONG


TXPQ26 KNES 272129
TCSWNP

A. 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 27/2101Z

C. 7.5N

D. 155.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED STEADILY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CDO AND BANDING FEATURE. BANDING OF 6/10 RESULTS
IN A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA showing a strong bullish forecast

TS 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 28 March 2015

<Analyses at 28/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°50'(7.8°)
E155°10'(155.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°50'(7.8°)
E151°20'(151.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°25'(8.4°)
E145°55'(145.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°10'(9.2°)
E140°20'(140.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)