
WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
Latest AMSU Microwave showing hints of an eye...


0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
This is a very beautiful storm. Great banding, low shear, and a pronounced poleward outflow channel. I think this one could spin up real fast.
0 likes
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Maysak tracking over a solid and zonal STR.


0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 280109
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015
...TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK MOVING INTO CHUUK STATE...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE AND SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU AND CHUUK IN CHUUK
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE AND FARAULEP IN
YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE...AND
SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CHUUK STATE
TODAY. MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN CHUUK AND FANANU EARLY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN PASS BETWEEN ULUL AND PULUWAT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
...FANANU...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. SECURE SMALL CRAFT AND DO
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BECOME DAMAGING AT 35 TO 45 MPH
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE STEADILY FROM 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING TO
BETWEEN 11 AND 14 THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 13 TO
16 FEET TONIGHT AS MAYSAK PASSES BETWEEN CHUUK AND FANANU OVERNIGHT.
SURF WILL BUILD STEADILY TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 16 FEET BY
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE. SEAS AND
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY TO
THE WEST.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
...CHUUK...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. SECURE SMALL CRAFT AND DO
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT...SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REACH DAMAGING LEVELS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS SUNDAY MORNING PROGRESSES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE STEADILY FROM 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING TO
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 13 TO
15 FEET TONIGHT AS MAYSAK PASSES BETWEEN CHUUK AND FANANU OVERNIGHT.
SURF WILL BUILD STEADILY TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 15 FEET BY
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE. SEAS AND
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY TO
THE WEST.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MAYSAK. A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES WILL BE PRESENT ON CHUUK TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY IF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
...LOSAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY
FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION. SECURE SMALL CRAFT AND DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 MPH AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AND THEN WEST OVERNIGHT AS
MAYSAK MOVES THROUGH CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF MAYSAK TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET TONIGHT. SURF
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 11 AND 14 FEET BY THIS EVENING AS MAYSAK MOVES
NORTH OF LOSAP. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
...ULUL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER IN CASE OF TYPHOON
CONDITIONS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. F NECESSARY...BE
PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO DAMAGING LEVELS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT THE EAST AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF MAYSAK PASSES SOUTH OF ULUL. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF
MAYSAK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OR MAYSAK INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW DAMAGING LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET BY TONIGHT. SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING REACHING LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURF WILL QUICKLY RISE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 15 TO 18 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAYSAK PASSES SOUTH OF ULUL. COASTAL INUNDATION
OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES FARTHER INTO CHUUK STATE. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
...PULUWAT AND SATAWAL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY MORNING ON PULUWAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON SATAWAL. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
PULUWAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON SATAWAL. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD
AND WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.
IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 40 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON PULUWAT
AND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ON SATAWAL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES INTO YAP STATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MAYSAK NORTH OF PULUWAT
AND SATAWAL. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF MAYSAK TAKES A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ON PULUWAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON SATAWAL AS MAYSAK NEARS FROM THE EAST. SEAS WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET AS MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH. SURF OF 6 TO 8
FEET THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ON PULUWAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON SATAWAL. SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 11 AND 13
FEET AS MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
LASTING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
...FARAULEP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IF TROPICAL STORM
MAYSAK TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER
PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD
AND WATER IN CASE OF TYPHOON CONDITIONS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
THE ONSET OF DAMAGING NORTH WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF MAYSAK SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE CENTER OF MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST
NORTH OF FARAULEP EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE STEADILY BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY TO PEAK
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET AS MAYSAK PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 15 TO 20
FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY
NIGHT AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS
POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES THROUGH
YAP STATE.
...WOLEAI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF TROPICAL
STORM MAYSAK TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD
AND WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN CASE MAYSAK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO
A SHELTER. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BY MONDAY EVENING AS MAYSAK
MOVES INTO YAP STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTH OF WOLEAI MONDAY EVENING BUT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK OF MAYSAK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO WOLEAI. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS AND SURF WILL RISE STEADILY SUNDAY NIGHT AS MAYSAK
MOVES INTO YAP STATE. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 11
AND 14 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 14 FEET. SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
$$
WILLIAMS
WTPQ81 PGUM 280109
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015
...TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK MOVING INTO CHUUK STATE...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE AND SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU AND CHUUK IN CHUUK
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE AND FARAULEP IN
YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE...AND
SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 240 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 435 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CHUUK STATE
TODAY. MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN CHUUK AND FANANU EARLY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN PASS BETWEEN ULUL AND PULUWAT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
...FANANU...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. SECURE SMALL CRAFT AND DO
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BECOME DAMAGING AT 35 TO 45 MPH
LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE STEADILY FROM 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING TO
BETWEEN 11 AND 14 THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 13 TO
16 FEET TONIGHT AS MAYSAK PASSES BETWEEN CHUUK AND FANANU OVERNIGHT.
SURF WILL BUILD STEADILY TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 16 FEET BY
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE. SEAS AND
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY TO
THE WEST.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
...CHUUK...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. SECURE SMALL CRAFT AND DO
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT...SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REACH DAMAGING LEVELS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS SUNDAY MORNING PROGRESSES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE STEADILY FROM 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING TO
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 13 TO
15 FEET TONIGHT AS MAYSAK PASSES BETWEEN CHUUK AND FANANU OVERNIGHT.
SURF WILL BUILD STEADILY TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 12 TO 15 FEET BY
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE. SEAS AND
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY TO
THE WEST.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MAYSAK. A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES WILL BE PRESENT ON CHUUK TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY IF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.
...LOSAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY
FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION. SECURE SMALL CRAFT AND DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 MPH AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AND THEN WEST OVERNIGHT AS
MAYSAK MOVES THROUGH CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF MAYSAK TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FEET TONIGHT. SURF
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 11 AND 14 FEET BY THIS EVENING AS MAYSAK MOVES
NORTH OF LOSAP. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
...ULUL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER IN CASE OF TYPHOON
CONDITIONS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. F NECESSARY...BE
PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO DAMAGING LEVELS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT THE EAST AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF MAYSAK PASSES SOUTH OF ULUL. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF
MAYSAK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OR MAYSAK INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW DAMAGING LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET BY TONIGHT. SEAS WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING REACHING LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURF WILL QUICKLY RISE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 15 TO 18 FEET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MAYSAK PASSES SOUTH OF ULUL. COASTAL INUNDATION
OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES FARTHER INTO CHUUK STATE. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
...PULUWAT AND SATAWAL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY MORNING ON PULUWAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON SATAWAL. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
PULUWAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON SATAWAL. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD
AND WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.
IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 40 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON PULUWAT
AND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ON SATAWAL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MONDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES INTO YAP STATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MAYSAK NORTH OF PULUWAT
AND SATAWAL. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF MAYSAK TAKES A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ON PULUWAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON SATAWAL AS MAYSAK NEARS FROM THE EAST. SEAS WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET AS MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH. SURF OF 6 TO 8
FEET THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE TO HAZARDOUS
LEVELS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ON PULUWAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ON SATAWAL. SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 11 AND 13
FEET AS MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
LASTING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
...FARAULEP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IF TROPICAL STORM
MAYSAK TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER
PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD
AND WATER IN CASE OF TYPHOON CONDITIONS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
THE ONSET OF DAMAGING NORTH WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF MAYSAK SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE CENTER OF MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST
NORTH OF FARAULEP EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE STEADILY BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY TO PEAK
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET AS MAYSAK PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 15 TO 20
FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY
NIGHT AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS
POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES THROUGH
YAP STATE.
...WOLEAI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF TROPICAL
STORM MAYSAK TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARD. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD
AND WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN CASE MAYSAK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO
A SHELTER. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BY MONDAY EVENING AS MAYSAK
MOVES INTO YAP STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTH OF WOLEAI MONDAY EVENING BUT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK OF MAYSAK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO WOLEAI. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS AND SURF WILL RISE STEADILY SUNDAY NIGHT AS MAYSAK
MOVES INTO YAP STATE. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 11
AND 14 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 14 FEET. SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
$$
WILLIAMS
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 248
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 7:20 pm
- Location: Pembroke Pines, FL, USA
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
TS Maysak is looking impressive and will continue to get stronger over the next couple of days. I suspect that it should become a Typhoon easily due to it's amazing outflow and perseverance.

Analysis for TS Maysak: http://goo.gl/siaMkm
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Analysis for TS Maysak: http://goo.gl/siaMkm
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
SHORT VERSION OF DISCLAIMER: THIS SITE LINK BELOW IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECASTING OFFICE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO MAKE ANY EMERGENCY DECISIONS....
http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com
http://www.macstropicalweather.weebly.com
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Hey HurricaneTracker, what are your thoughts on its track? We need to onow because we have a boat trip on April 2 to Leyte.
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
But if those outliers on a recurve would agree with landfall, then the ensemble mean would be for Visayas
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAR 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 7:38:15 N Lon : 154:43:58 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 998.6mb/ 53.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 3.5
Center Temp : -61.7C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.5 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAR 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 7:38:15 N Lon : 154:43:58 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 998.6mb/ 53.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 3.5
Center Temp : -61.7C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.5 degrees
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
I'd be damn...Now calling for a 115 knot category 4 monster!
Yap in for a Major Typhoon...
Yap in for a Major Typhoon...
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 7.6N 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 7.9N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 8.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 8.4N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 8.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 9.9N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.0N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 154.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 694 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z
AND 290300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 7.6N 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 7.9N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 8.2N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 8.4N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 8.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 9.9N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 11.0N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 154.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 694 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z
AND 290300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 694 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND DEEP CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A
272122Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND POSITION FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS
04W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TS MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. LOW VWS, EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MAYSAK WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, TS MAYSAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS REDUCED
OUTFLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING STR INHIBITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 694 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND DEEP CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A
272122Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND POSITION FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS
04W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TS MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. LOW VWS, EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MAYSAK WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. BEYOND TAU 96, TS MAYSAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS REDUCED
OUTFLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING STR INHIBITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re:
spiral wrote:If the system is a cat3/4 west and of 140E i would cancel any boat trips xtyphooncyclonex.
Well, thanks. But I hope the storm would slow down before we arrive in Leyte, and I would encounter the storm in another place full force!
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Looking pretty


0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
I'm technically chasing and riding this storm in Leyte
my first time 


0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
GFS forecasting an excellent upper-air environment with an anticyclone over the system within the next 60 hours...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Moving straight due west


0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
That's tons of rain and lots of wind for the Chuukese.
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.3.91334
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.3.91334
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
TXPQ26 KNES 280304
TCSWNP
A. 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 28/0232Z
C. 7.5N
D. 155.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING FOR DT=3.5. MET=3.0 WITH PT=3.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
27/2122Z 7.5N 155.6E SSMIS
...SALEMI
TCSWNP
A. 04W (MAYSAK)
B. 28/0232Z
C. 7.5N
D. 155.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...8/10 BANDING FOR DT=3.5. MET=3.0 WITH PT=3.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
27/2122Z 7.5N 155.6E SSMIS
...SALEMI
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm
Could Bavi become another monster in an el nino year?
2009 had Category 4 Super Typhoon Kujira in May...
2002 had Category 5 Super Typhoon Mitag in March...
1997 had Category 5 Super Typhoon Isa in April...
These monsters actually help strengthen the el nino by developing more Westerly Winds Burst...If not Bavi, then i think the next names on the list could be it...Although we already had Cat 4 Higos last month...
My post on March 9th.
I started in 1997 as it is more recent but stats don't lie. More stronger early typhoons equals a destructive el nino and comes in batches...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Tropical Storm

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 280330
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 PM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015
...TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK INTENSIFYING EAST OF CHUUK...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU AND CHUUK IN CHUUK
STATE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL IN CHUUK STATE AND
FARAULEP IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT AND LOSAP IN
CHUUK STATE...AND SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.7N 154.4E
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 765 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 11 MPH
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST..0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.4 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 11 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...TAKING MAYSAK BETWEEN
CHUUK AND FANANU EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY BY 800 PM THIS EVENING.
$$
WILLIAMS
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests