WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Ouch...120 knots cat 4 into Yap state!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UKMO plows this right through Visayas or Leyte!!! Where I'm going!!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM
EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280206Z AMSR 36 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT SLIGHTLY-ELONGATED CENTER WITH
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. OVERALL,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MSI
AND AMSR IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
TS 04W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TS MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A
80-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. LOW VWS, EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
RESULTING IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU
120.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MAYSAK WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
BEYOND TAU 72, TS MAYSAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS REDUCED
OUTFLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING STR INHIBITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NAVGEM REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER, IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT NAVGEM HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE AND NOW SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK SCENARIO VICE A RE-CURVE
SCENARIO.//
NNNN

[ejeraldmc]

GFS changes their mind Showing a Bicol-CALABARZON hit south of Manila

I hope not the next ST Angela.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS changes their mind Showing a Bicol-CALABARZON hit south of Manila

I hope not the next ST Angela.

They have been trending south, maybe a Visayas hit as shown by UKMO and most ECMWF ensemble members. I hope not Manila because it is very populated and urbanized compared to other places, and thus lead to a higher damage cost due to density of buildings and that being caught by surprise. Possibly, GFS runs may shift to the Visayas as well.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From iCyclone's FB page:

5:30 pm Saturday (Philippines): Tropical Storm MAYSAK continues to strengthen as it moves W. Here's the latest from the JTWC, now showing the cyclone peaking at Cat-4 intensity in four days. The JTWC forecasts have been remarkably consistent, and a threat to the Philippines is implied. The latest global model runs are in surprisingly good agreement, predicting the future typhoon will come ashore next weekend near the Bicol Region. Remember that the models have limited accuracy a whole week out. The important thing: a recurve out to sea is looking less likely now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye forming, convection surrounding the eye is deepening/cooling. Impressive banding!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All Asian Met Agencies agree on a South Luzon/Visayas landfall

[dexterlabio]

This has EL NINO written all over it. But a really really strange one.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 28 March 2015

<Analyses at 28/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E154°20'(154.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 29/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°40'(7.7°)
E149°50'(149.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°40'(8.7°)
E144°25'(144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°30'(9.5°)
E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E134°20'(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N12°20'(12.3°)
E131°05'(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

04W MAYSAK 150328 1200 7.6N 153.7E WPAC 60 978

That was early... wow

They should later revise it to 65 or 70 knots.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 280940 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

CORRECTED TYPO

...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK HEADING TOWARDS CHUUK LAGOON...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
FANANU IN CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IF MAYSAK TRACKS FURTHER NORTH.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN
YAP STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.6N 154.1E

ABOUT 105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST..0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING MAYSAK JUST NORTH OF CHUUK MID SUNDAY
MORNING. MAYSAK IS FORECASTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER NORTHWARD UP TO 65 MILES AND
SOUTHWARD UP TO 30 MILES. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY 1100 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

CHAN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

At least this is not as puzzling to track compared to Hagupit last year

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Thicker convection. I see a pinhole eye 7.4N 153.6E, JT position too far north by .2 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

YAP IS NOW UNDER TYPHOON WARNING

From: WestPacWx FB

More confidence tonight that Maysak will make landfall somewhere in the Philippines vice curving north. The exactly where as shown in the numerical outputs in the image is still uncertain. Like wise with the intensity. The farther north the storm drifts the more shear and cooler temperatures it will encounter. For now though any one along the eastern Sea Board of Luzon and Visayas should watch this storm closely. Have those typhoon supplies ready and a plan if the storm does come your way. These are things that should be the normal any how. Residents in Yap are also under a Typhoon warning and will take the brunt of this storm like by Tuesday. -Rob

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS much farther south this run

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Typhoon? Looks already like one

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 281123
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SAT MAR 28 2015

...TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK INTENSIFYING AND BEARING DOWN ON WENO IN
CHUUK STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF CHUUK...LOSAP...FANANU...ULUL AND
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE AND SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI IN YAP
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TYPHOON WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
FANANU IN CHUUK STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN
YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS 0F 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS 0F 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...

AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.1 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 310 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL AND
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK IS INTENSIFYING EAST OF WENO IN CHUUK STATE.
THE CENTER OF MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF CHUUK LATE
TONIGHT...EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING...THEN PASS BETWEEN ULUL AND
PULUWAT SUNDAY EVENING. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON EARLY SUNDAY.

...FANANU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. SECURE SMALL CRAFT AND DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME DAMAGING AT 35 TO 45 MPH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AROUND DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER IF MAYSAK
TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY SUNDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AT 13 TO 16 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF MAYSAK PASSES BETWEEN
CHUUK AND FANANU SUNDAY MORNING. SURF WILL BUILD STEADILY TO
DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 13 TO 16 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT THESE
LEVELS THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MAYSAK MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

...CHUUK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS FOR TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE SHOULD
ALREADY BE COMPLETED. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS
SUBSIDE. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN
SECURED. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS
OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
DAMAGING LEVELS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH AROUND DAWN ON
SUNDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS FROM THE WEST OF 75 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 90 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 12 AND 16 FEET THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO
BETWEEN 17 AND 21 FEET ON SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF MAYSAK
PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF CHUUK. DURING THIS TIME SURF WILL BUILD
TO BETWEEN 18 AND 22 FEET. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS
POSSIBLE. SEAS AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MAYSAK MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES WILL BE PRESENT ON CHUUK THROUGH SUNDAY IF
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

...LOSAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAYSAK WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE NORTH OF LOSAP AFTER MIDNIGHT. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO
DAMAGING LEVELS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET AND SURF BETWEEN 11 AND 14 FEET
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS MAYSAK PASSES NORTH OF LOSAP. MINOR
COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

...ULUL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IF MAYSAK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND
TRACK AS FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN
AROUND NOON ON SUNDAY. PREPARATIONS FOR TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 75
MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE SECURED. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO DAMAGING LEVELS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND INCREASE TO TYPHOON FORCE WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE CENTER OF MAYSAK PASSES JUST SOUTH OF ULUL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BELOW DAMAGING LEVELS AND SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WILL STEADILY RISE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING LEVELS OF 19 TO 23 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURF
WILL QUICKLY RISE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 20 TO 24 FEET BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS MAYSAK PASSES SOUTH OF ULUL. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4
FEET IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS AND SURF WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS MAYSAK MOVES THROUGH CHUUK STATE. RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

...PULUWAT...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER.
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK BETWEEN 50 AND 60
MPH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES INTO YAP
STATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STRONGEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MAYSAK NORTH OF PULUWAT. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD BE
STRONGER IF MAYSAK TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET ON SUNDAY MORNING AS MAYSAK APPROACHES. SEAS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET AS MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH
SUNDAY EVENING. SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY INCREASE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 14 AND 17 FEET AS MAYSAK
PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...SATAWAL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SUNDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO
GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OF 40 MPH BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
MAYSAK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF MAYSAK
TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET TODAY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON SATAWAL AS MAYSAK NEARS
FROM THE EAST. SEAS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET ON MONDAY
MORNING AS MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH. SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 9 TO 12 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET AS
MAYSAK PASSES TO THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING. MINOR COASTAL INUNDATION
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
LASTING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...FARAULEP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER IN CASE OF TYPHOON
CONDITIONS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE
PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
THE ONSET OF DAMAGING NORTH WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING
LASTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO
FARAULEP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE STEADILY BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY TO PEAK
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 FEET AS MAYSAK APPROACHES THE ISLAND. IN
ADDITION...SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 15 TO 20
FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY
NIGHT AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS
POSSIBLE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES THROUGH YAP STATE.

...WOLEAI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN CASE THE
TRACK OF MAYSAK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF
NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BY MONDAY EVENING AS MAYSAK
MOVES INTO YAP STATE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
MAYSAK APPROACHES. THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NORTH OF WOLEAI MONDAY EVENING BUT A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK OF MAYSAK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO WOLEAI. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... COMBINED SEAS AND SURF WILL
RISE STEADILY ON MONDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES INTO YAP STATE. COMBINED
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 14 FEET.
SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

MCELROY

[ejeraldmc]

CDO expanding impressively