WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I told former Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña yesterday about the storm.

[euro6208]

YAP IS NOW UNDER TYPHOON WARNING

From: WestPacWx FB

More confidence tonight that Maysak will make landfall somewhere in the Philippines vice curving north. The exactly where as shown in the numerical outputs in the image is still uncertain. Like wise with the intensity. The farther north the storm drifts the more shear and cooler temperatures it will encounter. For now though any one along the eastern Sea Board of Luzon and Visayas should watch this storm closely. Have those typhoon supplies ready and a plan if the storm does come your way. These are things that should be the normal any how. Residents in Yap are also under a Typhoon warning and will take the brunt of this storm like by Tuesday. -Rob

Yap is not under a Typhoon Warning yet but will be soon maybe tomorrow...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 28 March 2015
<Analyses at 28/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E153°55'(153.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N7°50'(7.8°)
E149°50'(149.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°40'(8.7°)
E144°30'(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°35'(9.6°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow

Very Strong typhoon expected... Must be undergoing RI right now

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC put the position further southwest

04W MAYSAK 150328 1200 7.5N 153.5E WPAC 60 978

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive.

[Alyono]

models have done a major change on this. They had been going for major typhoon in the Philippines. Now, they have a weak TS at most, showing rapid weakening as it approaches

[1900hurricane]

There haven't been any good microwave passes as of late, but just going off infrared imagery, Maysak appears to be doing some eyewall building in the southeastern quadrant.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm thinking a cat 1-2 landfall over Samar-Leyte area.

Not a forecast, but just a thought.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 7.5N 153.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 153.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 7.6N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 7.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 8.1N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 8.5N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 9.2N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 10.2N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.9N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 153.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF
CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The JTWC is now trending more west

Warning 5



Warning 7

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Chuuk is at the brunt of the storm, and this may be the worst since Chataan 2002, albeit Maysak is stronger.

[cycloneye]

As long it continues to move between 265 and 275 degrees the track will continue to shift more to the left.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

As long it continues to move between 265 and 275 degrees the track will continue to shift more to the left.

Indeed.

[euro6208]

Cat 4 into Yap...

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 281105Z METOP-B 89 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY THE EYEWALL.
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE METOP-B IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
TS 04W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TS MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 125-NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. LOW VWS, EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, RESULTING IN
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MAYSAK WILL TURN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TS MAYSAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS REDUCED
OUTFLOW DUE TO THE WEAKENING STR INHIBITS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Just got back home from a party and now it's getting serious...SST's are in the range of 29C and OHC should gradually increase promoting more rapid intensification!




More stronger on strengthening!

[euro6208]

As JTWC said models are only 125 miles through 72 hours...

NAVGEM takes this south of Yap as a full blown typhoon and a slow west northwest track towards Luzon...

CMC direct hits Yap also a typhoon but slowly weakens and clips northeastern Luzon as a TS...

EURO deepens this to 952mb near Yap...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

COAMPS, GFS, ECMWF & GFDN all show a straight runner, unlike the remaining models which clip North Luzon

[euro6208]

Who wanna bet later today Maysak will become our 3rd typhoon of the season?

[euro6208]

Now with Maysak passing south of us, we are expecting some strong winds due to a pressure gradient between this and a high pressure to the north...

We are opening a 5 star hotel and I am wondering if the windows will withstand this...