WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[HurricaneTracker2031]

TS Maysak is rapidly intensifying and may become a typhoon earlier than expected (today). It's even trying to form an eye. Those who live in the path of the storm should watch closely to this storm. It's remarkable how fast and how far this system has gone so far.




Analysis for TS Maysak: http://goo.gl/cL84F2

[euro6208]

In agreement with latest warning...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAR 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 7:29:50 N Lon : 153:09:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 994.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -64.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.0 degrees

[1900hurricane]

Past 6 hour METARs from Chuuk. This may come in handy as Maysak approaches.

[dexterlabio]

this could be a serious threat to the Pacific islands with the way this is strengthening right now.. AS for the major system threat to the Philippines, I still think it's too early to anticipate that. Look what happened to the previous storm that posed a threat to the Philippines, it fizzled out completely before touching the landmass...

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 281522
TCSWNP

A. 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 28/1432Z

C. 7.7N

D. 153.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. CONVECTION WRAPS 1.0 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR BANDING YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET =
3.5 AND PT = 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/1105Z 7.5N 153.8E AMSU


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 281600
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 AM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

...TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK APPROACHING CHUUK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR FANANU IS CANCELLED.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED FOR CHUUK BY SUNRISE AND FOR
ULUL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR FANANU IN CHUUK STATE IS CANCELLED. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU. DAMAGING WINDS OF
39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IF MAYSAK DEVIATES SOUTHWARD.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 153.0E

ABOUT 45 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 405 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 625 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI AND
ABOUT 695 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.0 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TAKING MAYSAK OVER CHUUK
THIS MORNING...AND BETWEEN PULUWAT AND ULUL THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER AND 50 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON BEFORE
REACHING CHUUK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
800 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[1900hurricane]

Very obvious microwave eye with the latest TRMM pass (1454Z).

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 MAR 2015 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 7:30:31 N Lon : 152:44:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 994.8mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -69.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.6 degrees


MW scene?

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 28 March 2015
<Analyses at 28/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N7°25'(7.4°)
E153°05'(153.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°10'(8.2°)
E148°40'(148.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°05'(9.1°)
E143°05'(143.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°55'(9.9°)
E138°05'(138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC 21:00 UTC warning at 65kts.

WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WHICH HAS
DEEPENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 281509Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE IMAGE FURTHER
DEPICTS DEEP CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS BY PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
LOW (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TY MAYSAK IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. PERSISTENT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS WILL ALLOW THE TYPHOON TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY MAYSAK WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. TY MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE TO REDUCED
OUTFLOW FROM THE WEAKENING STR WHICH WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION.
BEYOND TAU 96, TY 04W WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VWS WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 282122
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 AM CHST SUN MAR 29 2015

...TYPHOON MAYSAK NEARING CHUUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CHUUK AND ULUL IN CHUUK
STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED FOR CHUUK THIS
MORNING AND FOR ULUL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP IN CHUUK STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU. DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IF MAYSAK DEVIATES SOUTHWARD.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN YAP
STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.4N 152.3E

ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF FANANU
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 535 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI AND
ABOUT 660 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3 EAST...MOVING
WEST AT 9 MPH. A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TAKING MAYSAK OVER CHUUK THIS MORNING AND
BETWEEN PULUWAT AND ULUL THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 65 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
200 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[1900hurricane]

Closing in on Chuuk now.

[euro6208]

3rd typhoon of this remarkable season!

[cycloneye]

There is the eye.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

SW Jog, threat to Visayas may increase

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to 70kts.Track now directly over YAP but hopefully that does not occur.

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282110Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE CENTERED WITHIN A
SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CORE. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. TY MAYSAK IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29 CELSIUS WILL ALLOW
THE TYPHOON TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS NEAR TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 04W WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
STEERING STR WEAKENS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA: Typhoon "MAYSAK" was located at 2,810 km East of Mindanao (7.5˚N, 151.8˚E) with maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 160 kph. This typhoon is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Wednesday and will be named "CHEDENG".

[1900hurricane]

I saw a 60 kt gust in the METARs at Chuuk at 0254Z. Pressure also got down to 986.5 mb (0031Z).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAR 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 7:50:12 N Lon : 151:14:30 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 981.3mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.3

Center Temp : -52.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 65km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 11.7 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oops, wrong eye!

Center is over Chuuk, not N of Chuuk. Final ADT and Initial Guess should be interchanged here.