2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
ninel conde wrote:but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.
His reasoning for such high forecast? Everything looks so hostile.
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Yellow Evan wrote:ninel conde wrote:but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.
His reasoning for such high forecast? Everything looks so hostile.
Read it here
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He even is assuming that the present weak El Niño may transition to Neutral....
Um, what kind of assumption is that? I mean I don't really post in ATL thread but I think what Larry said was ridiculous and it struck me. Above average activity for a season bombarded with shear is a rarity, or an impossibility IMO

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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Is almost here and I don't have to say what it is so get ready to participate. 

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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Yellow Evan wrote:ninel conde wrote:but only to a cat1. meanwhile, LC in his latest newsletter states he suspects we will have roughly double the number of named storms from last season.
His reasoning for such high forecast? Everything looks so hostile.
Reasoning? "Mega equatorial waves", like the strongest MJO pulse ever recorded now in the Pacific, and the demise of what he calls the Saharan heat ridge. However, such strong equatorial waves may help the development of El Nino, making the Atlantic Basin more hostile for 2015. I think he'll be reducing his predicted number downwards in the future.
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
wxman57 wrote:Reasoning? "Mega equatorial waves", like the strongest MJO pulse ever recorded now in the Pacific, and the demise of what he calls the Saharan heat ridge. However, such strong equatorial waves may help the development of El Nino, making the Atlantic Basin more hostile for 2015. I think he'll be reducing his predicted number downwards in the future.
Now had the Mega equatorial wave had occurred over the Indian Ocean/Indonesia, as did in the mega equatorial wave of 1985, then we would be talking differently. That one in conjunction with La Nina.
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There hasn't been a major hurricane at all in the Gulf north of 25N since Rita...and since 2006, only a handful of hurricanes in the region:
2006 none
2007 Humberto (Cat 1, small, rapidly deepened on apporach)
2008 Dolly (Cat 2, weakened on approach), Gustav (Cat 2, steady on approach), Ike (Cat 2, steady on approach)
2009 Ida (Cat 1, weakened/became post-tropical on approach)
2010 none
2011 none
2012 Isaac (Cat 1, deepened on approach)
2013 none
2014 none
2006 none
2007 Humberto (Cat 1, small, rapidly deepened on apporach)
2008 Dolly (Cat 2, weakened on approach), Gustav (Cat 2, steady on approach), Ike (Cat 2, steady on approach)
2009 Ida (Cat 1, weakened/became post-tropical on approach)
2010 none
2011 none
2012 Isaac (Cat 1, deepened on approach)
2013 none
2014 none
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Just goes to show the homegrown hype theories year after year dont mean much. And besides the obvious that the gulf is dead.
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Just goes to show the homegrown hype theories year after year dont mean much. And besides the obvious that the gulf is dead.
I agree. No offense anyone, but every year it seems that people say "watch the homegrowns", yet it never happens.
I expect most activity in 2015 if any to be from high latitude systems.
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Yellow Evan wrote:I expect most activity in 2015 if any to be from high latitude systems.
I'm wondering if the same areas as 2014 will be favored. I don't think Bermuda would want another repeat of that, but they will have to keep tabs for sure.
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Just goes to show the homegrown hype theories year after year dont mean much. And besides the obvious that the gulf is dead.
due to the never ending wnw flow the gom north of 25 has been dead for some time and it wont matter if it heats up to 130 degrees if the wnw flow continues.
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That depends. Often an interruption of generic SE wind flow into Texas leads to development over there. But I hear what you're saying. I also sort of agree with Ntxw, but I'll still want to see water temperature profiles are in June and July.
Here's the thing. You can't take it anecdotally. Also, you've been around long enough that you should probably be able to cull who is blowing smoke and who is putting out stuff actually worth reading which also happens to be agenda-neutral. Just because there may or may not be homegrown type systems doesn't mean that any of them have to hit. Go back and look at the 2014 track map. You had about 4 systems form within a few to several hundred miles of the US East Coast. Some people would tell you that homebrew/grown systems don't form from tropical waves. That's bunk. It's often a combination of a mid, upper or surface feature intersecting with a wave or a sequence of waves that starts the 'cooking'.
I think it's important to note that not a lot of seasons with homegrown activity will mirror 1995 or 1998 which off of memory had these types of systems forming in the Gulf.
I agree. No offense anyone, but every year it seems that people say "watch the homegrowns", yet it never happens.
Here's the thing. You can't take it anecdotally. Also, you've been around long enough that you should probably be able to cull who is blowing smoke and who is putting out stuff actually worth reading which also happens to be agenda-neutral. Just because there may or may not be homegrown type systems doesn't mean that any of them have to hit. Go back and look at the 2014 track map. You had about 4 systems form within a few to several hundred miles of the US East Coast. Some people would tell you that homebrew/grown systems don't form from tropical waves. That's bunk. It's often a combination of a mid, upper or surface feature intersecting with a wave or a sequence of waves that starts the 'cooking'.
I think it's important to note that not a lot of seasons with homegrown activity will mirror 1995 or 1998 which off of memory had these types of systems forming in the Gulf.
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Waters are running very warm around Florida, the Bahamas, and also into the Gulf. I looked back at the past several years and haven't seen waters this warm at this time in any of those years. The recent cold front should help keep these waters in check but these SST anomalies are something to watch in the coming months:


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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
The Caribbean & Main Development Region (east to Africa) look particularly hostile for 2015. Areas less hostile will be north of the Caribbean into the Subtropical Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico. I suspect that most activity will form north of the Caribbean (hurricanes, particularly), though we may see 1 hurricane in the Gulf. Best analog now is 1957.
Just arrived at the National Hurricane Conference in Austin. Staying at the Hilton, Portastorm. Klotzbach & Gray's 2015 outlook is tomorrow morning at 8:30am. We've been emailing back and forth and I think he'll be going sub-10 named storms this year. I'd say between 7 and 9 named storms and about 4 hurricanes with 1-2 intense. Less ACE than last year.
Just arrived at the National Hurricane Conference in Austin. Staying at the Hilton, Portastorm. Klotzbach & Gray's 2015 outlook is tomorrow morning at 8:30am. We've been emailing back and forth and I think he'll be going sub-10 named storms this year. I'd say between 7 and 9 named storms and about 4 hurricanes with 1-2 intense. Less ACE than last year.
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Seasons with 10 or less storms with hurricane or higher landfalls listed under those years since 1950
2014: 8\6\2
Arthur 100mph
2009: 9\3\2
2006: 10\5\2
1997: 8\3\1
Danny 80mph
1994: 7\3\0
1993: 8\4\1
1992: 7\4\1
Andrew 175mph
1991: 8\4\2
Bob 105mph
1987: 7\3\1
Floyd 75mph
1986: 6\4\0
Bonnie 85mph
Charley 80mph
1983: 4\3\1
Alicia 115mph
1982: 6\2\1
1979: 9\5\2
David 105mph
Frederic 135mph
1977: 6\5\1
Babe 75mph
1976: 10\6\2
Belle 75mph
1975: 9\6\3
Eloise 125mph
1973: 8\4\1
1972: 7\3\0
Agnes 85mph
1970: 10\5\2
Celia 125mph
1968: 8\4\0
Gladys 85mph
1967: 8\5\1
Beulah 160mph
1965: 6\4\1
Betsy 155mph
1963: 9\7\2
Cindy 80mph
1962: 5\3\1
1960: 7\4\2
Donna 130mph
1958: 10\7\5
Helene 130mph
1957: 8\3\2
Audrey 125mph
1956: 8\4\2
Flossy 90mph
1952: 7\6\3
Able 105mph
1951: 10\8\5
and the cases in these quiet seasons in terms of named storms the major hurricanes happened in 1992 with Andrew, Alicia in 1983, Frederic in 1979, Eloise in 1975, Celia in 1970, Beulah in 1967, Betsy in 1965, 1960 with Donna, 1958 with Helene,and 1957 with Audrey so most of these fit in the it only takes one category and there may be some analogs in there for 2015 especially the El Nino years listed
2014: 8\6\2
Arthur 100mph
2009: 9\3\2
2006: 10\5\2
1997: 8\3\1
Danny 80mph
1994: 7\3\0
1993: 8\4\1
1992: 7\4\1
Andrew 175mph
1991: 8\4\2
Bob 105mph
1987: 7\3\1
Floyd 75mph
1986: 6\4\0
Bonnie 85mph
Charley 80mph
1983: 4\3\1
Alicia 115mph
1982: 6\2\1
1979: 9\5\2
David 105mph
Frederic 135mph
1977: 6\5\1
Babe 75mph
1976: 10\6\2
Belle 75mph
1975: 9\6\3
Eloise 125mph
1973: 8\4\1
1972: 7\3\0
Agnes 85mph
1970: 10\5\2
Celia 125mph
1968: 8\4\0
Gladys 85mph
1967: 8\5\1
Beulah 160mph
1965: 6\4\1
Betsy 155mph
1963: 9\7\2
Cindy 80mph
1962: 5\3\1
1960: 7\4\2
Donna 130mph
1958: 10\7\5
Helene 130mph
1957: 8\3\2
Audrey 125mph
1956: 8\4\2
Flossy 90mph
1952: 7\6\3
Able 105mph
1951: 10\8\5
and the cases in these quiet seasons in terms of named storms the major hurricanes happened in 1992 with Andrew, Alicia in 1983, Frederic in 1979, Eloise in 1975, Celia in 1970, Beulah in 1967, Betsy in 1965, 1960 with Donna, 1958 with Helene,and 1957 with Audrey so most of these fit in the it only takes one category and there may be some analogs in there for 2015 especially the El Nino years listed
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The Caribbean & Main Development Region (east to Africa) look particularly hostile for 2015. Areas less hostile will be north of the Caribbean into the Subtropical Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico. I suspect that most activity will form north of the Caribbean (hurricanes, particularly), though we may see 1 hurricane in the Gulf. Best analog now is 1957.
Audrey and 4 other systems formed in the Gulf that year. I DEFINITELY don't expect that much activity in the Gulf, but I guess that puts us on a watch for a potential early season threat. Joe Bastardi has been noting 57-58 winter a lot for analogs on the Saturday summary (mixed in with some others). That was a pretty intense storm and maybe the strongest to hit that region along with Rita in the last 40-50 years or so.
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if the whole pacific is active then the atlantic will be truly dead.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
Pac burst should last a couple of years, but big turnaround in enso, and epac sst likely after that.. similar to late 50s/60s
at least JB is finally dropping the notion that every season will be like 54/55. if next season is also dead then this will be a long streak of dead seasons.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
Pac burst should last a couple of years, but big turnaround in enso, and epac sst likely after that.. similar to late 50s/60s
at least JB is finally dropping the notion that every season will be like 54/55. if next season is also dead then this will be a long streak of dead seasons.
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