WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN10 PGTW 300013

A. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 29/2332Z

C. 8.37N

D. 147.12E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CENTER EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A
DT OF 4.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1931Z 8.20N 148.15E MMHS


MARTINEZ

[xtyphooncyclonex]

04W MAYSAK 150330 0000 8.4N 146.9E WPAC 85 959

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAR 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 8:21:23 N Lon : 147:25:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 984.6mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.7 3.6

Center Temp : -75.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.2 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Actual data was at 62 kts per WPWx, and other reliable sources. Even Weather Underground showed 110-120 km/h winds, and maybe even stronger because they usually give slightly lower wind and rain estimates (Especially during Haiyan when we had a 50kt gust, but was actually 68 kts)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA agrees with me They shift to the Visayas

[Yellow Evan]

Much better now. Eye has returned.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I remember McArthur saying "I shall return" and such was the case with Maysak "eye shall return."

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 8:33:53 N Lon : 146:43:38 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 984.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.2 degrees

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is it just me or ADT is too bearish?

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 8:33:53 N Lon : 146:43:38 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 984.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -23.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

[Yellow Evan]

ADT can be erratic right in the midst of an RI phase.

[senorpepr]

0000 GMT update from JMA regarding Typhoon Maysak as it enters Yap State, about 115 km away from Satawal.


The Typhoon Warning for Ulul, TS Warning for Puluwat, and Typhoon Watch for Satawal and Woleai have been cancelled.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Earthquake here in Cebu, quite strong.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

:uarrow: ADT can be erratic right in the midst of an RI phase.

What leads you to believe its in a RI phase.


Don't see it myself.

Obviously, the eye is coming back

[dexterlabio]

Earthquake here in Cebu, quite strong.

OT but interestingly there's a 7.7 earthquake that struck Papua New Guinea just recently...





RE Maysak, I'm not sure if this is undergoing RI but I do think it is intensifying but gradual.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Earthquake here in Cebu, quite strong.

OT but interestingly there's a 7.7 earthquake that struck Papua New Guinea just this morning...





RE Maysak, I'm not sure if this is undergoing RI but I do think it is intensifying but gradual.

We had it like 10 mins ago, while Papua was hours ago

RE Maysak, maybe brief RI only

[dexterlabio]

What leads you to believe its in a RI phase.


Don't see it myself.

I also don't see it now, at least based on the recent satellite loop...but watch out for that deep convection east of the eye...when a ring of deep convection wraps around the eye it's a game over...

[1900hurricane]

Wouldn't be surprised to see the eye get obscured again here for a bit with the big convective bursts backbuilding in the southern quadrant right now.



Would be nice if we could get a decent microwave pass. Today's passes have been pretty bad.

[Yellow Evan]

What leads you to believe its in a RI phase.


Don't see it myself.

I also don't see it now, at least based on the recent satellite loop...but watch out for that deep convection east of the eye...when a ring of deep convection wraps around the eye it's a game over...

It' just starting, but given the return of the eye, IMO it is underway.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 8:41:46 N Lon : 146:35:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 984.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +3.1C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.4 degrees

ST up, but tbh it may have hit a little more dry air.

[Yellow Evan]

At 90 knots satpic RBTOP should have a nice looking eyewall ring 5 knots is not RI.

RI is defined as 30 knots in 24 hours IIRC, which is certainty doable.

Some intensifying 90 knot storms don't have eyes. And in most cases, it's not clear.