UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 8:42:47 N Lon : 146:29:00 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 980.9mb/ 79.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.7 5.8
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : +6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.4 degrees
WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL CORE THAT REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. A 292320Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
MOST INTENSE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW,
WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI LOOP WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF
MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS
AND SUPPORTED BY A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS. TY MAYSAK
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 CELSIUS).
BEYOND TAU 48, TY 04W WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR
WEAKENS AND REORIENTS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. DURING THIS TIME, THE TYPHOON WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED VWS AS
IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND.
C. NEAR TAU 96, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STEERING STR CAUSING THE STR TO BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, CREATING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS TY 04W CONTINUES TO
GAIN LATITUDE IT WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VWS (20-25
KNOT). THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT BIFURCATION IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
NEAR TAU 72. COAMPS-TC AND GFDN TRACK A WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FASTER
AND ON A WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS LUZON. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, THE NORTHERN
TRACK IS MORE FEASIBLE AND, AS SUCH, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL CORE THAT REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED. A 292320Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE
MOST INTENSE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW,
WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI LOOP WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF
MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS
AND SUPPORTED BY A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS. TY MAYSAK
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY MAYSAK IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 CELSIUS).
BEYOND TAU 48, TY 04W WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR
WEAKENS AND REORIENTS DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. DURING THIS TIME, THE TYPHOON WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED VWS AS
IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND.
C. NEAR TAU 96, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STEERING STR CAUSING THE STR TO BUILD BACK IN NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, CREATING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS TY 04W CONTINUES TO
GAIN LATITUDE IT WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED VWS (20-25
KNOT). THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT BIFURCATION IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
NEAR TAU 72. COAMPS-TC AND GFDN TRACK A WEAKER SYSTEM MUCH FASTER
AND ON A WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS LUZON. BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST, THE NORTHERN
TRACK IS MORE FEASIBLE AND, AS SUCH, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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-
xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
How is this a cat 2?
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 8.4N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 8.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 9.3N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 9.8N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.7N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.0N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 146.2E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526 NM EAST OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 8.4N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 8.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 9.3N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 9.8N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.7N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.0N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 146.2E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 526 NM EAST OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3466
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
it's lopsided in a way that the bulk of deep convection is still on the southeastern quadrant...it has yet to wrap completely around the eye...gradually we're getting there...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3857
- Age: 23
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
JMA's estimate is stronger than JTWC's
TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 30 March 2015
<Analyses at 30/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°40'(8.7°)
E146°30'(146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 31/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°05'(9.1°)
E141°10'(141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°50'(9.8°)
E137°05'(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E133°30'(133.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)
TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 30 March 2015
<Analyses at 30/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°40'(8.7°)
E146°30'(146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 31/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°05'(9.1°)
E141°10'(141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°50'(9.8°)
E137°05'(137.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E133°30'(133.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 8:53:28 N Lon : 146:00:25 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.6mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.3 5.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : -25.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.5 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 8:53:28 N Lon : 146:00:25 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 963.6mb/102.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.3 5.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : -25.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.5 degrees
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
90 knots!
WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 13-NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 300438Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYEWALL WITH WEAKER
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS)
FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TY 04W SHOULD TRACK
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF ONLY 150 NM
AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TURN WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR AND
ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458 NM EAST OF
YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 13-NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 300438Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A SLIGHTLY OBLONG EYEWALL WITH WEAKER
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS)
FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 48. TY
04W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS AND WARM SST (29 CELSIUS) AND IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, TY 04W SHOULD TRACK
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. AS THE TYPHOON GAINS LATITUDE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS (15-20 KNOT). DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OF ONLY 150 NM
AT TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 04W WILL TURN WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN STR AND
ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
Watches and Warnings...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP
STATE WHILE A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR YAP. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP
STATE WHILE A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR YAP. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 301051
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST MON MAR 30 2015
...EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSING FARAULEP IN YAP STATE..
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF FAIS...ULITHI...FARAULEP...WOLEAI
AND YAP IN YAP STATE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP
STATE WHILE A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR YAP. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 45 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF YAP
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT CLOSEST APPROACH TO FARAULEP
IN YAP STATE THIS EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A HEADING
OF WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT APPROACHES
FAIS AND ULITHI TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THEN ON TOWARDS
YAP ISLAND...OR JUST NORTH OF YAP ISLAND...LATER IN THE NIGHT.
MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON WITH 105 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CATEGORY 3...110
MPH...OR CATEGORY 4...130 MPH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
...SATAWAL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAS ENDED...HOWEVER...STRONG
WINDS AND SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST UNTIL MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN SECURED. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS OF BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
...FARAULEP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTH OF
FARAULEP ISLAND. PREPARATIONS FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMPLETED AS TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. STAY IN A
STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN SECURED. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF UP TO 105 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AS MAYSAK MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH THIS EVENING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 6 TO 10 FEET
IS POSSIBLE. SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS THE EYE
PASSES.
...WOLEAI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS MAYSAK IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLAND. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF MAYSAK MOVES NORTH OF WOLEAI. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS MAYSAK BEGINS
TO MOVE AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS MAY PEAK AS HIGH AS 9 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT WHILE SURF MAY
REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 14 FEET. SEAS AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY. MINOR COASTAL
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
...FAIS AND ULITHI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ON FAIS AND BY TUESDAY EVENING ON ULITHI. PREPARATIONS FOR
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY TONIGHT. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER
THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS FORECASTED TO BE A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON WITH
WINDS OF 110 TO 125 MPH WHEN IT APPROACHES FAIS AND ULITHI.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ON FAIS AND SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON ULITHI. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON FAIS AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ON ULITHI.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF UP TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR THE ARRIVAL OF
TYPHOON MAYSAK. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 25 FEET AND
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES ARE
POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-
LYING AREAS.
...YAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON YAP AS TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES NORTH OF
THE ISLAND. TYPHOON OR NEAR TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO
TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS FORECASTED TO BE A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 OR 4 TYPHOON
WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 130 MPH WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH
OF YAP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. YAP
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STRONG AND POSSIBLY DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY WINDS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH AS MAYSAK MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH OVER
NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IF MAYSAK MOVES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF UP TO 18 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 22 FEET AND COASTAL INUNDATION OF
4 TO 6 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE
OF MAYSAK.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF MAYSAK...RESULTING IN
LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT 300 AM...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
$$
EDSON
WTPQ81 PGUM 301051
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST MON MAR 30 2015
...EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSING FARAULEP IN YAP STATE..
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON THE ISLANDS OF FAIS...ULITHI...FARAULEP...WOLEAI
AND YAP IN YAP STATE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT.
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP
STATE WHILE A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR YAP. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39
MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 8.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 45 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 130 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
ABOUT 315 MILES EAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 380 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF YAP
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY MAKING IT CLOSEST APPROACH TO FARAULEP
IN YAP STATE THIS EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A HEADING
OF WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT APPROACHES
FAIS AND ULITHI TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THEN ON TOWARDS
YAP ISLAND...OR JUST NORTH OF YAP ISLAND...LATER IN THE NIGHT.
MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON WITH 105 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CATEGORY 3...110
MPH...OR CATEGORY 4...130 MPH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
...SATAWAL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAS ENDED...HOWEVER...STRONG
WINDS AND SHOWERS MAY STILL EXIST UNTIL MORNING. STAY IN A STURDY
SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN SECURED. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
...WIND INFORMATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS OF BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
...FARAULEP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST NORTH OF
FARAULEP ISLAND. PREPARATIONS FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
COMPLETED AS TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. STAY IN A
STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN SECURED. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF UP TO 105 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE EYE OF TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AS MAYSAK MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH THIS EVENING. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 6 TO 10 FEET
IS POSSIBLE. SEAS AND SURF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS THE EYE
PASSES.
...WOLEAI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS MAYSAK IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLAND. LISTEN FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF MAYSAK MOVES NORTH OF WOLEAI. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS MAYSAK BEGINS
TO MOVE AWAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS MAY PEAK AS HIGH AS 9 TO 12 FEET TONIGHT WHILE SURF MAY
REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS OF 10 TO 14 FEET. SEAS AND SURF WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS MAYSAK MOVES AWAY. MINOR COASTAL
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
...FAIS AND ULITHI...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ON FAIS AND BY TUESDAY EVENING ON ULITHI. PREPARATIONS FOR
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY TONIGHT. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER
THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LISTEN FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A SHELTER. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS FORECASTED TO BE A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 TYPHOON WITH
WINDS OF 110 TO 125 MPH WHEN IT APPROACHES FAIS AND ULITHI.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ON FAIS AND SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON ULITHI. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON FAIS AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ON ULITHI.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF UP TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR THE ARRIVAL OF
TYPHOON MAYSAK. IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 25 FEET AND
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 5 TO 8 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES ARE
POSSIBLE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-
LYING AREAS.
...YAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON YAP AS TYPHOON MAYSAK PASSES NORTH OF
THE ISLAND. TYPHOON OR NEAR TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER THAT WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO
TO A SHELTER. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON MAYSAK IS FORECASTED TO BE A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 OR 4 TYPHOON
WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 130 MPH WHEN IT PASSES NEAR OR TO THE NORTH
OF YAP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. YAP
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE STRONG AND POSSIBLY DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY WINDS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH AS MAYSAK MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH OVER
NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
STILL POSSIBLE IF MAYSAK MOVES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS OF UP TO 18 FEET ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION...PEAK SURF HEIGHTS OF 22 FEET AND COASTAL INUNDATION OF
4 TO 6 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE
OF MAYSAK.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF MAYSAK...RESULTING IN
LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT 300 AM...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
$$
EDSON
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Finally back from an outage 
Here's JMA's latest track, not good for us as they have been consistently trending west
Here's JMA's latest track, not good for us as they have been consistently trending west
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
Latest Jeff Masters Wunderblog has a few interesting records to the already record season...
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2945
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2945
Maysak is the fourth named storm so far in 2015 in the Western Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) database shows only one other year since 1945 with more named storms that formed during the first three months of the year--1965, when there were five named storms. Maysak is already the third typhoon of the year, setting a record for the most typhoons so early in the year. The previous record for early season typhoons (during January, February, and March) was two, set in 2005, 1979, and 1955. Major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity are rare before April, and only fifteen such storms have been observed between 1945 - 2014. We already have had one major typhoon in 2015--Typhoon Higos, which topped out as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds in February.
Appears destined to become a major Category 3 or stronger typhoon by Tuesday. If this indeed happens, it will mark the first time two major typhoons have been observed in the Western Pacific during the first three months of the year. Maysak has a ways to go to become the strongest early season typhoon, though--there have been two Category 5 super typhoons in the Western Pacific prior to the month of April. Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 had 160 mph winds, and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002 also had 160 mph winds.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 9:03:26 N Lon : 144:45:24 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 967.3mb/ 97.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -14.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.6 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 9:03:26 N Lon : 144:45:24 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 967.3mb/ 97.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -14.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb
Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 10.6 degrees
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
No change, but appears to be going back to a westerly direction after moving recently WNW..
04W MAYSAK 150330 1200 9.0N 144.8E WPAC 90 956
Actually their estimate is lower than JMA
TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 March 2015
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°50'(8.8°)
E145°20'(145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)
04W MAYSAK 150330 1200 9.0N 144.8E WPAC 90 956
Actually their estimate is lower than JMA
TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 March 2015
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°50'(8.8°)
E145°20'(145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)
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xtyphooncyclonex
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WPAC: INVEST 99W
That's alot of ACE
04W MAYSAK - 10.2575
04W MAYSAK - 10.2575
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon
Dry air has been the culprit in the delay of strengthening but it's trying to clear out an eye...I would place the intensity at 100-105 knots category 3 in line with the latest ADT of 5.3 rounded off to 100 knots...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 99W
euro6208 wrote:Indeed haven't look at the models as am very busy here maybe someone can post them here?
In terms of strength they all agree on a strong TS/weak typhoon landfall.
In terms of track, here.
GFS - South/Central Luzon
ECMWF - Visayas
Other models - Anywhere in Luzon
UKMO
CMC
NAVGEM
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Well despite being a southern outlier, I'd agree and go with ECMWF/JMA.
(1) There is an evidently strong STR steering the system towards the west
(2) They have been remarkably consistent with their forecast
(3) They show a WNW turn after Maysak encounters a weakness in the ridge, yet they see the presence despite eastward displacement which is NOT ENOUGH to lead to a NW ward turn
(4) The actual track correlates well with their forecasts.
(5) The other agencies and models EXAGGERATE the weakness and displacement of the ridge, making them have a northward bias at later TAUs.
What are your thoughts guys?
(1) There is an evidently strong STR steering the system towards the west
(2) They have been remarkably consistent with their forecast
(3) They show a WNW turn after Maysak encounters a weakness in the ridge, yet they see the presence despite eastward displacement which is NOT ENOUGH to lead to a NW ward turn
(4) The actual track correlates well with their forecasts.
(5) The other agencies and models EXAGGERATE the weakness and displacement of the ridge, making them have a northward bias at later TAUs.
What are your thoughts guys?
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
spiral wrote:Nah really it looks a mess 100 knts is over the top. It is what it is.
LOL When you said that,
TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 30 March 2015
<Analyses at 30/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N9°00'(9.0°)
E144°55'(144.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)
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