WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAR 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 9:52:22 N Lon : 141:38:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 934.8mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.2 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ26 KNES 310308
TCSWNP

A. 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 31/0232Z

C. 9.7N

D. 141.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR DT=6.5.
MET=6.0 WITH PT=6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEM

[1900hurricane]

Don't think that trough will have any affect cant see it reaching anywhere near 20 N to do any damage.

It already is at 20*N. It's not a bruiser, but you can sample some of the height falls associated with the shortwave by comparing the 00Z sounding data between Laoag and Haikou.

So you're saying the trough will break RIGHT through the STR? How about how strong the STR is? Height falls would not necessarily change the direction of movement, probably just make Maysak temporarily decelerate. It is merely a slight break, and does not really mean a weakness. Also important to note that the STR actually is located over Central Luzon, not over the northern part.

How strong is the subtropical ridge? Well, the sounding from Laoag has a 500 mb height of 591 dam while the sounding from further south in Baguio has a 500 mb height of...591 dam. Also, Laoag and Haikou were used because they were as close to the same latitude as I could find, thereby eliminating as much height difference from latitude as possible. But back to your main question. No, this shortwave will not "break through" the subtropical ridge, but it should weaken it substantially. Thanks to sounding data, we know that the axis of the subtropical ridge in the vicinity of The Philippines has a 500 mb height of approximately 591 dam. Now, accessing available numerical data, it is unanimous that the 500 mb heights of this ridge should drop to below 588 dam in 48 hours time. The ridge is still present, but thanks to the height falls from the shearing out shortwave, it won't be nearly as strong and weaknesses will certainly be present. Now the tricky part is whether any of these weaknesses will be great enough for Maysak to exploit. As I stated before, I think this will be the case, but what eventually happens remains to be seen.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It already is at 20*N. It's not a bruiser, but you can sample some of the height falls associated with the shortwave by comparing the 00Z sounding data between Laoag and Haikou.

So you're saying the trough will break RIGHT through the STR? How about how strong the STR is? Height falls would not necessarily change the direction of movement, probably just make Maysak temporarily decelerate. It is merely a slight break, and does not really mean a weakness. Also important to note that the STR actually is located over Central Luzon, not over the northern part.

How strong is the subtropical ridge? Well, the sounding from Laoag has a 500 mb height of 591 dam while the sounding from further south in Baguio has a 500 mb height of...591 dam. Also, Laoag and Haikou were used because they were as close to the same latitude as I could find, thereby eliminating as much height difference from latitude as possible. But back to your main question. No, this shortwave will not "break through" the subtropical ridge, but it should weaken it substantially. Thanks to sounding data, we know that the axis of the subtropical ridge in the vicinity of The Philippines has a 500 mb height of approximately 591 dam. Now, accessing available numerical data, it is unanimous that the 500 mb heights of this ridge should drop to below 588 dam in 48 hours time. The ridge is still present, but thanks to the height falls from the shearing out shortwave, it won't be nearly as strong and weaknesses will certainly be present. Now the tricky part is whether any of these weaknesses will be great enough for Maysak to exploit. As I stated before, I think this will be the case, but what eventually happens remains to be seen.

So you'll have an idea..

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC is at T7.0.

TPPN10 PGTW 310313

A. TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK)

B. 31/0232Z

C. 9.75N

D. 141.90E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
(+1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR WHITE) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT WERE
6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/2122Z 9.42N 143.05E SSMS
30/2226Z 9.52N 142.88E SSMS
30/2351Z 9.58N 142.48E GPMI
31/0039Z 9.67N 142.35E MMHS


LONG

[Yellow Evan]

WOW!!!

[Yellow Evan]

04W MAYSAK 150331 0000 9.6N 142.5E WPAC 125 929

STY

That's the 0z cycle. And 125 isn't a super typhoon IIRC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

04W MAYSAK 150331 0000 9.6N 142.5E WPAC 125 929

STY

Not yet. 125 is still borderline.
it is not yet updated, as JTWC did not yet release 0600 UTC.

NWS Guam said on Facebook that it will be upgraded to 140 kts in a few minutes.

[Yellow Evan]

2015MAR31 043000 6.6 937.3 129.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.63 -74.87 EYE 26 IR 83.1 9.92 -141.53 COMBO MTSAT2 12.3
2015MAR31 051500 6.6 937.2 129.6 6.6 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 15.35 -75.77 EYE 25 IR 83.1 10.05 -141.38 COMBO MTSAT2 12.5

6.8 ADT, 17C eye. Wow.

[dexterlabio]

The effect of the emerging shortwave trough off Southern China is clearly depicted in all recent GFS, ECMWF and CMC model runs, hence the continuing WNW/NW motion until maybe after 96 hours when the trough clears out. The STR over Japan could rebuild and fill in the weakness or the western extention of the ridge over China could resume the steering. At least that's where all of us can agree with right now. One thing to note is the expected strength of this storm by the time it gains latitude, as a weaker system would be easier to nudge by the STR...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

Sorry 1997 Isa...Maysak just snatched the crown...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC may shift to the south as well, because GFS shows a Bicol-MIMAROPA track

[dexterlabio]

does anyone know the record of the early season Category 5 typhoons in the Western Pacific?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

does anyone know the record of the early season Category 5 typhoons in the Western Pacific?

2002 Super Typhoon Mitag during the first week of March.

One key thing to notice: All seasons with an April (or before) super typhoon were all at least moderate El Niño years... (1997, 2002)

[Yellow Evan]

does anyone know the record of the early season Category 5 typhoons in the Western Pacific?

Mitag 02 and Ida 58 were both earlier.

[ejeraldmc]

Why don't we have recons in WPac!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The bias happened before, too with STY Isa 1997

From Wikipedia

"Isa maintained a nearly due-westward movement, although tropical cyclone prediction models anticipated a quick turn to the north. The JTWC recognized the northward model bias, which was described as under-analyzing the strength of the subtropical ridge."

[ManilaTC]

04W MAYSAK 150331 0600 10.0N 141.3E WPAC 140 918

WE NOW HAVE A SUPER.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

04W MAYSAK 150331 0600 10.0N 141.3E WPAC 140 918

WE NOW HAVE A SUPER.

Wow

[euro6208]

Wow! First category 5 of the year!