WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest update! Exact time.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now the strongest pre-April storm, knocking out Mitag!

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 31 March 2015
<Analyses at 31/06 UTC>
Intensity: Very Strong
Center position: N10°00'(10.0°) E141°20'(141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure: 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center: 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed: 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more: ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more: N390km(210NM) S330km(180NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not yet it. There's still

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 31 March 2015

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

[euro6208]

Now can it become the strongest ever typhoon on record this early in the season?

Maysak is tied with Mitag of March 2002 and Ophelia of January 1958...

Latest Jeff Masters Wunderblog has a few interesting records to the already record season...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2945

Maysak is the fourth named storm so far in 2015 in the Western Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) database shows only one other year since 1945 with more named storms that formed during the first three months of the year--1965, when there were five named storms. Maysak is already the third typhoon of the year, setting a record for the most typhoons so early in the year. The previous record for early season typhoons (during January, February, and March) was two, set in 2005, 1979, and 1955. Major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity are rare before April, and only fifteen such storms have been observed between 1945 - 2014. We already have had one major typhoon in 2015--Typhoon Higos, which topped out as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds in February.

Appears destined to become a major Category 3 or stronger typhoon by Tuesday. If this indeed happens, it will mark the first time two major typhoons have been observed in the Western Pacific during the first three months of the year. Maysak has a ways to go to become the strongest early season typhoon, though--there have been two Category 5 super typhoons in the Western Pacific prior to the month of April. Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 had 160 mph winds, and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002 also had 160 mph winds.

[ManilaTC]

Now the question is, How much latitude will Maysak gain before turning left right smack into the Philippines?

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310651
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 PM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015

...MAYSAK NOW A SUPER TYPHOON AS IT PULLS EVEN CLOSER TO FAIS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING AT FAIS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURING AT ULITHI. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 4 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN YAP WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 141.3E

ABOUT 55 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.3
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
BRINGS THE EYE OF MAYSAK THROUGH YAP STATE JUST NORTH OF FAIS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND JUST NORTH OF ULITHI LATER THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 160 MPH. MAYSAK IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM THIS EVENING.

$$

STANKO

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is it just me, or STY Maysak is decelerating?

[euro6208]

That looks like Hurricane Mitch at peak of 155 knots...

Too bad this Great Basin doesn't have recon...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Euro, I sent you a message. Please read

[ejeraldmc]

Scott Bachmeier ‏@CIMSS_Satellite: Nice ASCAT sampling of Cat 4 Typhoon Maysak in the West Pacific Ocean

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC has it peaking at 155 knots



WTPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 10.0N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 10.7N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 11.4N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.9N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.7N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.0N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 140.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 49 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF FAIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Fais and Ulithi should be in the eyewall in a few hours...Devastating...

[ohno]

This storm might evaporate into oblivion once it get near the Philippines. Lol. It is scorching hot here right now. Like 36 to 37 degrees C.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 49 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS DEEP AND INTENSE CONVECTION AND
MAINTAINED ITS 15-NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. A 310433Z TRMM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE EYE AND TIGHTLY
WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PTGW AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY MAYSAK
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, EXPECT A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A DECREASING TREND IN
THE INTENSITY OF STY MAYSAK AS VWS INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE
SSTS ARE GOOD, THE OVERALL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WEST OF 135E. FINALLY, STY 04W WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE
POLEWARD AS THERE IS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, STY 04W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING VWS. THE
TOPOGRAPHICAL AFFECTS OF NORTHERN PHILIPPINES WILL PROVIDE
FRICTIONAL FORCES TO ALSO DECREASE THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BY
TAU 120. DYNAMIC NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310836
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
800 PM CHST TUE MAR 31 2015

...SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK NEARS FAIS ISLAND...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING AT FAIS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING AT ULITHI. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN YAP WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 140.7E

ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 185 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.7
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED CONTINUE
ON THIS TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE EYE OF MAYSAK JUST
NORTH OF FAIS AND THEN NORTH OF ULITHI THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN TO 160 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200
AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[dexterlabio]

This storm might evaporate into oblivion once it get near the Philippines. Lol. It is scorching hot here right now. Like 36 to 37 degrees C.

then each and every typhoon that passed through PI should've boiled to their death if that concept were true. It is always hot to live here in the Philippines, except during winter monsoon season...

[euro6208]

Anyone know a good weather obs site for Fais and Ulithi?

Can't seem to find any but would be very interesting as the eyewall is basically raking them...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anyone know a good weather obs site for Fais and Ulithi?

Can't seem to find any but would be very interesting as the eyewall is basically raking them...

Here.

Heavy rains and winds reported

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.3.91203

[ohno]

This storm might evaporate into oblivion once it get near the Philippines. Lol. It is scorching hot here right now. Like 36 to 37 degrees C.

then each and every typhoon that passed through PI should've boiled to their death if that concept were true. It is always hot to live here in the Philippines, except during winter monsoon season...

Yeah. Haha. But let see how maysak handle the heat of philippines summer. Lol.

[euro6208]

Anyone know a good weather obs site for Fais and Ulithi?

Can't seem to find any but would be very interesting as the eyewall is basically raking them...

Here.

Heavy rains and winds reported

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.3.91203

Looks like the station is down. Last updated 3 hours ago...