WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

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xtyphooncyclonex
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#361 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 4:50 am

OH MY GOD! :eek:

TY 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 31 March 2015

<Analyses at 31/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N10°05'(10.1°)
E140°35'(140.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 31/21 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 01/09 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E136°25'(136.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(110kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80m/s(155kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E134°05'(134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
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#362 Postby ohno » Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:02 am

The good news is that per JMA, intensity will go down to 70knots in 3 days. Right?
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Re:

#363 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:04 am

ohno wrote:The good news is that per JMA, intensity will go down to 70knots in 3 days. Right?

Yes. All models and agencies agree on definite weakening before landfall.
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Re: Re:

#364 Postby ohno » Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:08 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
ohno wrote:The good news is that per JMA, intensity will go down to 70knots in 3 days. Right?

Yes. All models and agencies agree on definite weakening before landfall.


Yes. JMA down to 70kts but still 2 days away from landfall. JTWC is bullish. 95Kts on landfall
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#365 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:16 am

I think the SSD tropical floater for Maysak (and other tropical systems) are malfunctioning? It's not updating its content.
latest image is a just a black image with date : Jan 0 00 00:00
I hope this is not an attack


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04W/04W_floater.html
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#366 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:41 am

it continues to intensify. someone better save the latest images, we don't know when it's gonna have this nice eye. ;)
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#367 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 5:46 am

mrbagyo wrote:I think the SSD tropical floater for Maysak (and other tropical systems) are malfunctioning? It's not updating its content.
latest image is a just a black image with date : Jan 0 00 00:00
I hope this is not an attack


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04W/04W_floater.html

Been like that for hours

Website shows many good alternative content like CIMSS and FNMOC/US Navy

http://www.hurricanezone.net/

Meanwhile here's the latest pic of Maysak

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#368 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:07 am

I've temporary recreated the SSD floater products using South Korea's COMS satellite.
Image
Image

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=coms&channel=ir2&coverage=enh&file=gif
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=coms&channel=ir4&coverage=enh&file=gif

Product Outage/Anomaly: MTSAT Data Outage, Issued: March 31.
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#369 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Mar 31, 2015 6:39 am

You can use this as well.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/
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#370 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:05 am

Wobbled WSW, jogged W

Gaining less latitude

Image
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#371 Postby ejeraldmc » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:06 am

Seems to be moving straight west
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#372 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:06 am

IMO,it looks like when Haiyan was at peak.

Image
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Re:

#373 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:09 am

ejeraldmc wrote:Seems to be moving straight west

No longer WNW right?
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#374 Postby ejeraldmc » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:13 am

cycloneye wrote:IMO,it looks like when Haiyan was at peak.

Image


Last frame shows that little island right against the eyewall. Scary.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#375 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:24 am

This storm has had an incredible structure since its days as a TS. The most recent microwave pass is very impressive, with solid ice scattering depicted throughout the eyewall:

Image

Image
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#376 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:25 am

Bad news for Yap, moving south of west which means closer to them.

Image
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Re: Re:

#377 Postby ejeraldmc » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:26 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
ejeraldmc wrote:Seems to be moving straight west

No longer WNW right?


Yeah. It seems that Maysak doesn't want to miss those islands. :/
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#378 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:28 am

Hard to have a much better poleward outflow channel than what is currently being observed:

Image

I'm sure this dominant outflow channel has played a crucial role in the process of this storm becoming a category-5 TC.
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Re: WPAC: MAYSAK - Typhoon

#379 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:34 am

04W MAYSAK 150331 1200 10.2N 139.9E WPAC 140 918
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#380 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:38 am

does not look wsw to me...just straight west..if it does maybe it's just a one-frame wobble...
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