5 PM ISABEL UPDATE, WINDS, FORECAST, AND NEWS

[WXBUFFJIM]

ISABEL NEWS

Good afternoon everyone. Plenty of news this morning to talk about regarding Isabel including hurricane and tropical storm watches. In addition the governor of the state of Virginia, Governor Mark R Warner issued a state of emergency for the common wealth on Monday well ahead of Isabel. A state of emergency declaration will ensure that the Virginia national guard, the state police, and the department of Transportation are on full alert status. A state of emergency is also in effect for the tarheel state of North Carolina

In Newport News, Virginia emergency shelters are opening on Wednesday at various areas. http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=1443506 for the inof on locations and various things you are allowed to bring and not to bring.

EVACUATIONS

A mandatory evacuation order was given in Dare County, NC including the Cape Hatteras areas effective at 12 noon Tuesday September 16th, 2003. This means all preparations should have been rushed to completion in this area and people and residents of the area must leave. A barrier island is not a place to be during category 2-3 hurricanes. When ordered to evacuate, do so!! Better to be safe than sorry.

In addition a mandatory evacuation order was given for Ocracoke Island on the outer banks yesterday. 921 residents live on Ocracoke Island. Over 100,000 people had to flee the coast away from isabel's wrath. A great call in the outer banks this afternoon and evening.

40 navy ships are departing Norfolk, VA and are moving out to sea away from Isabels wrath. Meanwhile fighter planes and personnel are evacuating Langley Airforce Base and are headed for the midwest. A good call in both cases!!

HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A hurricane watch is now in effect as of 11 am edt for the mid atlantic coastal waters from Little River Inlet, South Carolina northward to Chicoteague, Virginia. This includes the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, The Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the Tidal Potomac River. A hurricane watch means that the hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours time. A hurricane warning means that the hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. Hurricane warnings maybe needed for these areas tonight into Wednesday as Isabel continues her approach.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Little River Inlet, SC down to South Santee River, SC.

There are also brand new tropical storm watches in effect this afternoon north of Chicoteague, Virginia up to Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey including the Delaware Bay and the Chesapeake Bay north of North Beach, Maryland. A tropical storm watch means that the tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions ae expected within 24 hour or less.

5 PM EDT ADVISORY ON ISABEL

At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Isabel is centered about 570 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina or at 27.8 north, 71.4 west.

Isabel is moving towards the north northwest at 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours followed by an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Isabel could strengthen back to a category 3 hurricane over the next 24-36 hours just prior to landfall. A category 3 hurricane would cause extensive damage to homes and businesses and result in storm surge flooding of 10-12 feet. A category 3 hurricane has winds sustained between 111 and 130 mph and that is very possible as it makes landfall. Very devastating hurricane for sure!!!

Minimum central pressure decreased earlier today to 958 mb according to the recon info. It's estimated at 959 mb and 28.32 inches. But satellite imaginary suggest strengthening is a good possibility over the next day or two. Any preparation plans should be rushed to completion and if told to evacuate, do so immediately!!! It could save your life.

More updates on this throughout the night and at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov 24/7!!

Jim S.

[JCT777]

Great update, Jim. I agree that Isabel may make it it up to Category 3 intensity, assuming it is now beginning to strengthen again.

[JetMaxx]

Based on the latest central pressure (958 mb), and flight level winds of 111 kt (128 mph), a case could easily be made this is now a category 3 hurricane once again.....128 mph at 700 mb flight level (10,000') equates 115 mph at the surface.

IMHO if Isabel isn't a cat-3 hurricane now....she will be very soon.

[wx247]

I agree. She looks to be strengthening again somewhat. The gulf stream will also be a factor right before she hits land.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Very well advertized outlook since yesterday on this strengthening probability. It appears to be verifying. Now the question is the exactb point of landfall in north carolina. 15-25 miles difference will make all the difference in the world. but also keep in mind Isabel is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending outward 160 miloes from the center. So the effects will be felt well away from the center of circulation as well. That's why everyone in the mid atlantic, even inland areas need to prepare if they haven't already!!!

Jim