WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Is being torned apart more faster than the forecasts by JMA and JTWC.

[Alyono]

may very well hit as a depression

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE THAT IS SHEARING
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO ENCOUNTERING HIGH (30 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE WEST. A 021808Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER, ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSETTING THE VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT
ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.5 (105 KNOTS) TO REFLECT THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING STRUCTURE. TY
MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, TY
MAYSAK WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES EAST AND AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING STR BUILDS IN NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AGAIN AS THE STR REORIENTS TO ITS ORIGINAL POSITION TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES THROUGH TAU 36 AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DECREASES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION VWS WILL DROP BACK TO MARGINAL LEVELS, CAUSING A SLOWER
WEAKENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BEYOND TAU 48, THE WEAKENING WILL
BE ENHANCED DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
OVER CENTRAL LUZON. AS TY 04W RE-EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO HIGH VWS AND WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY MAYSAK WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO THE
POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 120, A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT WILL FORCE THE WEAKENED SYSTEM TO
BEND WESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO A POOR UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, TY 04W
WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER SST BELOW 26 CELSIUS. OVERALL, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Maysak is now drifting NNW towards the Philippines and looks like it will just clip it. It is still weakening and when it makes landfall, it should be a Tropical Storm.



Analysis for Typhoon Maysak: http://goo.gl/12L1NF


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

I think the lower eye is popping out again. The system looks more conslidated and in better shape now as it moves near the Philippines. People who are residing in this area should pay close attention since it could be a flood event.

04:32 Image


Analysis for Typhoon Maysak and other systems: http://goo.gl/OcEkoY

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS EVIDENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN AS TY 04W TRACKS OVER LUZON.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT WILL FORCE THE WEAKENED SYSTEM TO BEND WESTWARD. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF STRONG VWS AND POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[ejeraldmc]

Bursting convection

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LLCC
FEATURE ON THE 031712Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL JUST
NORTH OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES, AROUND TAU 30. INCREASING VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
A MINIMAL TYPHOON PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND WILL EMERGE AS A 45-KNOT
TROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 48.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE THROUGH THE
TAIWAN STRAIT WILL FURTHER ERODE TY MAYSAK AND CONTRIBUTE TO ITS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

After a period of moving NW and even a brief NNW movement, the through has sheared out and is no longer an influence in the steering of Maysak. I'm fairly impressed with Maysak's tenacity thus far, but there's only so much more a storm can do after getting sheared like it did earlier. Thinking Maysak will follow a WNW motion and make landfall in central Luzon tomorrow (or near the end of today if going by UTC) as a strong tropical storm or marginal typhoon, much like the current JTWC and JMA forecasts.

[oaba09]

Heading to nueva ecija later today for easter. Not really near the landfall area but we should feel some of the effects of maysak.

[Alyono]

looks like it collapsed

[euro6208]

65 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND THE 040351Z GPM MICROWAVE
SATELLITE PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WHICH ALSO REVEALS THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK FIXES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS RADIAL OUTFLOW DUE TO A POINT SOURCE
REMAINING ABOVE THE SYSTEM. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
CENTRAL SEIRRA MARADE RANGE JUST BEYOND TAU 12. EXPECT THAT A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER, TY 04W WILL EMERGE IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM AND CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, A NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE
EVENT THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS OF TAIWAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF TY MAYSAK. EXPECT COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE STORM BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[ejeraldmc]

Maysak is undecided where to go.

[euro6208]

Tracks of all tropical storms and typhoons to affect the Philippines' Luzon Island between the months of January - April. Only seven such storms have hit Luzon since 1945, an average of one every ten years.

Maysak is the 8th!

[euro6208]

Down to 60 knots...

04W MAYSAK 150404 1200 15.1N 124.3E WPAC 60 978

[1900hurricane]

looks like it collapsed

Yep, decoupled. As soon as I go and mention Maysak's tenacity too...

[ejeraldmc]

It's just drifting away south.

[Alyono]

not moving south. that is the remnant clouds moving south. The center is north of the clouds

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR
36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR (EIR)
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AND
WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHED LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM THE 041744Z NPP 165BT MICROWAVE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MAYSAK WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN ISABELA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, TS 04W WILL
EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. NEAR TAU 48,
A NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE EVENT THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS OF TAIWAN WILL
AID IN THE CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF TS MAYSAK. EXPECT COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE STORM BY TAU 72 AS IT DIPS SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

this almost certainly made landfall as a depression