2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Steve]

What I heard him say was it was going to take a couple of years for the cool horseshoe west of South America to dent the coming El Nino which would be transient at some level (possibly on and off a year or two). But I'd think we'll know for sure by 2017 whether we are in the final 5-15 year flurry of the warm AMO or if we returned to the cool multi-decadal Atlantic cycle (or possibly something else of course). But for sure, if the WPAC, CPAC and EPAC are bananas, you'd have to expect the Atlantic to be in for a down year relative to averages.

[CrazyC83]

If my forecast numbers of 7/2/0 and an ACE of 14 verify, how would 2015 rank in the historical record? Would that be a record low for ACE in the Recon era?

[wxman57]

If my forecast numbers of 7/2/0 and an ACE of 14 verify, how would 2015 rank in the historical record? Would that be a record low for ACE in the Recon era?

The lowest ACE season on record was 1983 with 17 points. 14 would be the record. I'd add about 60 to your guess.

[cycloneye]

A glitch or for real?

[Hurricaneman]

A glitch or for real?

its probably a glitch, for a more accurate depiction go to http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean ... index.html

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going to show years where there was a moderate El Nino or above and their landfall strength since 1950

2009 strong El Nino
Claudette 60mph

2006 Moderate El Nino
Ernesto 70mph
Alberto 45mph
Beryl 40mph

2002 Moderate El Nino
Lili 90mph
Fay 60mph
Hanna 60mph
Isidore 60mph
Bertha 40mph
Edouard 40mph
Kyle 40mph

1997 Super El Nino
Danny 85mph

1994 Moderate El Nino
Alberto 65mph
Beryl 60mph
Gordon 50mph

1991 Strong El Nino
Bob 105mph

1987 Strong El Nino
Floyd 75mph
TS2 45mph

1986 Moderate El Nino
Bonnie 85mph
Charley 80mph

1982 Super El Nino
STS1 70mph
Chris 65mph

1972 Super El Nino
Agnes 85mph
Alpha 45mph

1968 Moderate El Nino
Gladys 85mph
Abby 70mph
Candy 70mph

1965 Strong El Nino
Betsy 155mph
TS1 50mph

1963 Moderate El Nino
Cindy 80mph

1957 Strong El Nino
Audrey 125mph
Bertha 70mph
Esther 50mph
TS1 40mph
Debbie 40mph

1951 Moderate El Nino
How 70mph

And I noticed the strongest landfalls of the moderate to super ninos is from 1965 with Betsy and 1957 with Audrey so even if there happens to be a stronger El Nino doesn't mean a really bad hurricane can't happen as those seasons really only took one to be memorable

[Yellow Evan]

Even if there was no Nino, the -AMO and all the shear in the Caribbean would make tropical origin homegrown hurricanes hard to come by. I have a very hard time imagining a significant hurricane will make landfall in the USA in 2015.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Even if there was no Nino, the -AMO and all the shear in the Caribbean would make tropical origin homegrown hurricanes hard to come by. I have a very hard time imagining a significant hurricane will make landfall in the USA in 2015.

Bob in 1991 happened in a -AMO and is possibly one of my analogs for 2015

as for my top 5 analogs with 2015

1994
1991
1982
1972
1957

honorable mentions

1965
1968

so based on this there isn't much in terms of named storms but a few of my analogs had a Moderate+ El Nino, +PDO, and -AMO and 1957 is the top analog as it had all 3 but had a major landfall in the Gulf
1991 had the Strong El Nino and -AMO but -PDO which is what keeps this below 1957 but 1986 is right up there with 1957 as it has all the same attributes as 1957 with the Gulf hurricane but an additional one in NC
1982 is also a top analog which didn't have an hurricane landfall but had Chris in the Gulf as a strong TS

Probability of landfall based on my analogs

East Coast: moderate threat of a tropical storm or hurricane

Eastern Gulf and Florida: Moderate threat of a tropical storm or hurricane

Central Gulf: high risk of tropical storm or hurricane

Western Gulf: high risk of tropical storm or hurricane

Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico: low risk of tropical storm or hurricane

Mexico from BOC: low risk for tropical storm or hurricane

Lesser Antilles: low risk of tropical storm or hurricane

Bermuda: low risk of tropical storm or hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Andrew92]

:uarrow: Even if there was no Nino, the -AMO and all the shear in the Caribbean would make tropical origin homegrown hurricanes hard to come by. I have a very hard time imagining a significant hurricane will make landfall in the USA in 2015.

Historical odds say otherwise, given that almost every year after which a hurricane season didn't see a single hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (such as 2014), the Gulf is not only more active but also usually features at least one major. Audrey, Anita, and Alicia are all great examples of the kind of storm that could threaten the United States this year, if what a few members have said earlier in this thread ends up being accurate.

If it misses the US, it probably goes into northern Mexico, like Anita did. Just remember, it only takes one to make a season. Everyone who lives on the coast should always be prepared, just in case.

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

A lot will depend on shear and timing IMO. Statistically speaking we shouldn't be going this long without a (official) major hit on the US since 2005. Of course we've been lucky and it's been going against the odds. If we get ripping shear like last year moving from NW in the gulf SE down to the Caribbean then it will be hard to get a big storm. if shear remains in the Caribbean then the gulf has a chance. We'll have to see what kind of effects the strong +PDO and strengthening El Nino does in the next month or two and we should have a good idea. By June if there is ripping shear well above normal then the odds will be lower.

Looking at ENSO regions 1+2, fairly confident the Caribbean and MDR will be a very hostile place again likely persistent strong shear .

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Even if there was no Nino, the -AMO and all the shear in the Caribbean would make tropical origin homegrown hurricanes hard to come by. I have a very hard time imagining a significant hurricane will make landfall in the USA in 2015.

Historical odds say otherwise, given that almost every year after which a hurricane season didn't see a single hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (such as 2014), the Gulf is not only more active but also usually features at least one major. Audrey, Anita, and Alicia are all great examples of the kind of storm that could threaten the United States this year, if what a few members have said earlier in this thread ends up being accurate.

If it misses the US, it probably goes into northern Mexico, like Anita did. Just remember, it only takes one to make a season. Everyone who lives on the coast should always be prepared, just in case.

-Andrew92

I don't understand the focus on climo so much when the actual conditions matter more. And right now, I have my doubts on how a system can 1) survive the WCarb as a TC and 2) get picked up by a trough if it's so weak. While it's possible a cold front can come into the GOM and generate a storm, the pattern since 2009 has favored East Coast troughing.

As someone who simply likes to track these systems only, I'd argue it doesn't take one system to make a season from a tracking standpoint.

[gatorcane]

Yellow Evan, how can you be so sure of what conditions will be like in the Atlantic especially around the peak of the hurricane season which is still more than 5 months away?

If anything look back at 2013, where just about every "long-range indicator" we had called for a very active Atlantic season but that season didn't materialize at all and ended up being one of the most inactive seasons on record.

[Andrew92]

:uarrow: Even if there was no Nino, the -AMO and all the shear in the Caribbean would make tropical origin homegrown hurricanes hard to come by. I have a very hard time imagining a significant hurricane will make landfall in the USA in 2015.

Historical odds say otherwise, given that almost every year after which a hurricane season didn't see a single hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (such as 2014), the Gulf is not only more active but also usually features at least one major. Audrey, Anita, and Alicia are all great examples of the kind of storm that could threaten the United States this year, if what a few members have said earlier in this thread ends up being accurate.

If it misses the US, it probably goes into northern Mexico, like Anita did. Just remember, it only takes one to make a season. Everyone who lives on the coast should always be prepared, just in case.

-Andrew92

I don't understand the focus on climo so much when the actual conditions matter more. And right now, I have my doubts on how a system can 1) survive the WCarb as a TC and 2) get picked up by a trough if it's so weak. While it's possible a cold front can come into the GOM and generate a storm, the pattern since 2009 has favored East Coast troughing.

As someone who simply likes to track these systems only, I'd argue it doesn't take one system to make a season from a tracking standpoint.

I'm not trying to focus solely on climatology. It's clear to see that the MDR and Caribbean will be pretty much all shut off this year due to an El Nino. I also won't disagree with the notion that most of the storms that form will be from frontal lows off the East Coast. And yes, the pattern since 2009 has not favored frontal systems forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

However, patterns change over time. It isn't clear yet that the Gulf of Mexico will in fact be favorable for a system like I'm describing to take place. But if history is often described as the best teacher, I would be prepared if I lived on the Gulf Coast.

But I live in Arizona, where I sometimes see the remnants of hurricanes from the Eastern Pacific. We were hit hard by flooding from Norbert and areas to the south of me were deluged by Odile last year. I have more vested interest in that basin this year, hoping for no repeats of 2014, but well aware that another scenario like this could happen again.

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

2013 was an interesting case. If you look back in the spring dry air was already starting to establish and instability ran low for some time. But there was a snowball effect from many that expected the first true neutral Enso year since 2005, consequently the avalanch of a hyper active season like 2005 was on the way. It was that taught many of us to look at other local conditions as well before and not just analog years.

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan, how can you be so sure of what conditions will be like in the Atlantic especially around the peak of the hurricane season which is still more than 5 months away?

If anything look back at 2013, where just about every "long-range indicator" we had called for a very active Atlantic season but that season didn't materialize at all and ended up being one of the most inactive seasons on record.

I'd be more confident in 2015 than 2013 due to the non-Modoki El Nino, combined with the -AMO

And even in 2013, conditions started to go down the toilet that spring with the AMO tank, and all the warm SST's located in the high latitudes. So, no, not every long-range indicated called for a busy season; I just don't think people were paying attention to the AMO at that time.

[euro6208]

Remember, it only takes one

[cycloneye]

The graphics of the first post tell the story.

Todd Kimberlain @ToddKimberlain · Apr 4
From an SST-anomaly perspective, it can't get more unfavorable for Atlantic TCs this year #ElNino #hurricane #2015

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yeah, the state of the Atlantic is as poor as it gets right now. I don't know of a database for vertical instability values, but I'm guessing 2015 holds the record for lowest values to date. The SST configuration is awful, with most of the heat focused in the subtropics (one caveat is the Gulf, which is running well above average). And to top it off, we have a strengthening El Nino, likely to increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic throughout the season.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Yeah, the state of the Atlantic is as poor as it gets right now. I don't know of a database for vertical instability values, but I'm guessing 2015 holds the record for lowest values to date. The SST configuration is awful, with most of the heat focused in the subtropics (one caveat is the Gulf, which is running well above average). And to top it off, we have a strengthening El Nino, likely to increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic throughout the season.

That's why I do believe that the Gulf is going to get 1 storm that clobbers someone as that may be the place to watch due to what a lot of El Ninos have done in the past but also don't forget that some of those El Nino years featured an East coast rider or in addition to the gulf activity. Also a strong El Nino doesn't mean no impact{ see 1965 as it had one of the strongest landfalls in an El Nino year with Betsy}

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: Yeah, the state of the Atlantic is as poor as it gets right now. I don't know of a database for vertical instability values, but I'm guessing 2015 holds the record for lowest values to date. The SST configuration is awful, with most of the heat focused in the subtropics (one caveat is the Gulf, which is running well above average). And to top it off, we have a strengthening El Nino, likely to increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic throughout the season.

That's why I do believe that the Gulf is going to get 1 storm that clobbers someone as that may be the place to watch due to what a lot of El Ninos have done in the past but also don't forget that some of those El Nino years featured an East coast rider or in addition to the gulf activity. Also a strong El Nino doesn't mean no impact{ see 1965 as it had one of the strongest landfalls in an El Nino year with Betsy}

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah, no doubt the "it only takes one" motto still stands. That being said, the probability of a major hurricane striking the United States is much lower in El Nino years when compared to Neutral or La Nina years, for obvious reasons.