Krit-tonkla wrote:This one is strengthening fast.
21S TWENTYONE 150406 0600 14.2S 89.2E SHEM 65 974
Yup but won't get stronger that much...
WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.7S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.1S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.3S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.5S 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.1S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 89.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IKOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1497 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM WITH GOOD SPIRALED
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IN ADDITION TO THE MSI, A 060231 GPM 36GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS HAS
BEEN INCREASED BASED ON CONCURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND
PTGW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH
OFFSETS THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
AID IN DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING INCREASING VWS, TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THOUGH TAU 48. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING VWS, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECEASE AS THE SYSTEM DROPS
POLEWARD OF 24 DEGREES SOUTH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AT THE LATEST. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
ADT center fix is wrong, hence the low T-num.
