Potentially active weather pattern setting up the next several days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
OVERALL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
FREDERICKSBURG TO LA GRANGE LINE.
FOR THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH WILL HELP PUSH A
WEAK FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION THAT WILL IMPINGE ON THE
DRYLINE TO EDGE TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
MORNING CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODES...
SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TOWARDS 3000 J/KG AS MIXING OCCURS BY MID
AFTERNOON. BOTH NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EROSION OF THE
CAP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH 30KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE. WHILE
NOT SUPER HIGH...THIS AMOUNT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING BOUNDARY (DRYLINE) COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THAT COULD TAKE ON A SUPERCELL APPEARANCE. MOST
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE TOWARDS WACO TO DALLAS WITH TAIL END CELLS
POSSIBLE TO SKIRT BURNET TO WILLIAMSON. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WANE THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES BUT
MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD REGENERATE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN
IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. /ALLEN/
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
AREA WILL REMAIN IN SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE
REGION.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAYAND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR FRIDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY/DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LEAVING SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION FRIDAY WILL BE
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR GIVEN CLOUD COVER FROM MID-LEVEL
LIFT FROM A MORNING TRAVERSING IMPULSE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
RENEWED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PER MASS FIELDS WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF MORE SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY. SUPPORTIVE
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR
SOME ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITH MORE FAVORED AREA ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT WITH REESTABLISHING
SE LOW-LVL FLOW UNDERNEATH CONTINUED ZONAL TO SW FLOW AS EMBEDDED
IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THESE IMPULSES IN COMBINATION WITH
INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MODEST H5 WIND SPEEDS SHOULD HELP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GENERATION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE IMPULSES WILL BE EJECTING AHEAD OF A
LARGER CUT-OFF H5 LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THAT WILL AID IN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE MAIN
LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION AND AID IN LIKELY CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BOTH GFS AND EC
PRECIP RUN
ACCUMULATION TOTALS SUGGEST POCKETS OF 4-5 INCHES THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED EACH DAY FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING CONCERNS IF A MORE CONCENTRATED COMPLEX DEVELOPS. /ALLEN/
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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