Florida Weather

[NDG]

Gorgeous wx indeed, and most important my A/C is getting a break

As far as the monthly average for Orlando as of yesterday it was still running .2 of a degree F above the last warmest March ever recorded but the current month to day average is in jeopardy once today's low temp and tomorrow's low temp is put into the equation, may still end up with the second or third warmest March on record.

[gatorcane]

beautiful day across the peninsula today with plenty of sunshine and seabreezes setting up but the atmosphere is stable so very little chance of rain even where the seabreezes collide. Tomorrow a front moves down the peninsula and washes out around Lake O. That should increase the instability enough to allow a few isolates showers to form, though the chances are low.

The sun is feeling hotter and hotter each day and won't be too long before the rainy season kicks in, which is usually around the third week in May across South Florida.

[psyclone]

Summer is clearly intent on showing up much earlier this year. with the exception of a brief break last weekend we have been consistently well above average for weeks and that looks to continue for at least the next couple of weeks... could easily just bridge us into Summer. we even had a nice seabreeze induced dose of showers from Tampa to Ft Myers this evening..

[gatorcane]

Extended outlook shows a summer-time regime across Florida into the foreseeable future with an east wind flow and scattered POPs developing along the western side of the peninsula just about every afternoon along the seabreeze collision. SSTs around the peninsula on the Gulf and Atlantic side are definitely responding too and running above normal for this time of year...something to keep an eye on as hurricane season is right around the corner.

[northjaxpro]

Extended outlook shows a summer-time regime across Florida into the foreseeable future with an east wind flow and scattered POPs developing along the western side of the peninsula just about every afternoon along the seabreeze collision. SSTs around the peninsula on the Gulf and Atlantic side are definitely responding too and running above normal for this time of year...something to keep an eye on as hurricane season is right around the corner.

Yeah, as you and psyclone has already referenced, Summer seems for eager to kick start this year. We have been getting seabreze thundershowers since Easter Sunday here, and again this afternoon. Looks like a long 5 -6 months ahead of heat and humidity around these parts Also, I am evaluating my thoughts on the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season as well as I see the poll has been posted on the forums to post our numbers predictions for the 2015 season.

[gatorcane]

Very summer-time regime in place across South Florida today. East wind pattern with large storms blowing up over the western side of the Everglades. Had I not seen a calendar, I would think it were September. I haven't seen this pattern start this early across Florida before. Interesting indeed.

[TheStormExpert]

Very interesting pattern for sure gatorcane. We even have the perfect heat/humidity feel as if it were summer, along with a light to gentle SE breeze. I guess this is just a reminder that the rainy season is not too far off.

Here are a few images I took of the thunderstorm cloud tops from the ones over eastern Lake Okeechobee. Very impressive for storms that are within 40-60 miles west from where I took those first two shots.

[NDG]

As you guys have mentioned, very warm and humid for this time of the year during the past 2 weeks, in fact Orlando is once again running 6 degrees above average so far this month, it definitely feels more like late May than early April especially with the humidity level thrown in, the Peninsula is surrounded by warmer than average waters and persistent +NAO pattern has a lot to do with it.

[Hurricaneman]

I made a joke at work today that summer has come early, and the warmer than normal water temps are to blame for that

[psyclone]

there is some potential for a late season "cool" front in a little over a week (perhaps next sunday/Monday) that could provide a respite at least briefly. that potential is reflected in the CPC 8-14 day outlook which shows normal temps returning to central/northern fl and south fl just on the warm side of normal...a favorable change compared to the entire state painted bright red for weeks on end.

[gatorcane]

Big thunderstorms are blowing up over the Everglades off to my SW this afternoon with fresh breezes off the Atlantic out of the E to ESE at 10-15mph. Pattern is a lot like September though a bit more humidity a temps would be a few degrees higher.

NWS Miami discussion mentions this summer-like pattern through the extended range with the deep easterly flow entrenched across South Florida. This is very early get this type of pattern for so long:

MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S
EACH DAY ACROSS THE METRO AREAS WITH READINGS NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COASTAL AREAS

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[northjaxpro]

Well, a very unsettled, wet pattern is on tap across the panhandle and northern peninsula for the next couple of days as a decaying frontal boundary remains draped across the region
This will give us a temporary respite from the heat and provide some areas some decent rainfall amounts the first part of this week.

[NDG]

Unfortunately not so much here in central FL, mix of clouds and sun will keep us at least here in the Orlando area in the upper 80s for highs all week with lows only near 70 degs. A/C will be working full time, not looking forward to my electric bill. But the good thing for us is that there is at least a good chance of afternoon pop up thunderstorms during the upcoming week to cool us down temporarily in the evenings.

GFS has been back away now for a possible fropa next weekend, pattern looks to stay in place through at least next weekend possibly becoming more progressive the following week.

[psyclone]

looks like there's a good chance of an early spring cutoff low setting up shop over the eastern lakes/upper ohio valley late this month...I used to hate these when I lived up there as they brought miserable, cold and wet weather when we were desperate for warm spring days. it's good news for us though as it could break the early season exceptional warmth over us. I am hopeful that the latter third of April is the coolest third of the month and the odds are good due to this set up and the absurd temp anomalies destined to be booked in the first two thirds of the month. in the interim...sweat on.

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely looking, feeling, and acting like summer with the weather being now stuck in a Summer-like pattern through this upcoming week, this evening around sunset the sky had a somewhat ominous dark summer-like look to it which made it look and feel very tropical outside.


The long range forecast is anyones guess since I have been hearing that the NAO may finally go negative after being positive basically since last fall. Levi Cowan with Tropical Tidbits thinks it may finally happen according to the latest CFS model runs, either way at this point all that will mean is probably average-like temperatures or maybe even slightly below average temperatures.

All in all this summer-like weather teaser is making me really anxious for this upcoming rainy season. Bring it On!

[TheStormExpert]

Already 1 lightning fatality in Florida and we're still about a month away from the official rainy season start date.

@weatherchannel: Lightning injured a person and started a fire in Macclenny, FL around 4pm. Thunderstorms remain across the state. http://t.co/JUTN1EF3Xj

Anyways, it seems we are stuck in an active Summer-like weather pattern through at least the next 5 days here in South Florida and all of the peninsula for that matter it seems.

[chaser1]

I see a potential for parts of Florida to receive significant enough amounts of rain over the next couple of weeks, that this April might prove to be one of the wettest in recent years. One result would be to possibly mitigate our typically dry fire season, often lasting right up to the typical start of the rainy season between May 15 - June 1. All of this has yet to play out, but in the event that it were... I'd be curious to know which prior years also saw "wet Aprils" in Florida and how that might have correlated with those respective Atlantic Hurricane Season & those regions more commonly impacted by landfall events. Finally, even "if" this April were truly this wet, there may be little conclusive historical data to make any kind of correlation to the type of hurricane season activity we may anticipate. There may be one implication however, that might be gleaned from a particularly wet April here in Florida. It might suggest that whatever "diseased" mid or upper level dry conditions seemingly plaguing convection from developing and maintaining within the tropics for the last couple years, might be less of an inhibiting factor for this year; That, or those inhibiting conditions will be less of a factor at this general longitude. Suggestions of increased rainfall and enhanced wave activity throughout Central America might be a further indication of at least regional increased atmospheric instability.

[HURRICANELONNY]

My vote is on the euro but i've been wrong many times. The lawns are starting to get brown. bring some rain.


The GFS has it weaken quicker, ahead of
a cold front that moves into North Florida Sunday and stalls it
over South Florida for the beginning of next week, bringing higher
probability of precipitation to the region. The European model (ecmwf) also has a front, but it keeps it
well to the north, perhaps just getting into North Florida. This
would be the drier pattern for South Florida. But, given the
uncertainty, have kept chance probability of precipitation in for now, for the end of the
forecast period.

[psyclone]

I see a potential for parts of Florida to receive significant enough amounts of rain over the next couple of weeks, that this April might prove to be one of the wettest in recent years. One result would be to possibly mitigate our typically dry fire season, often lasting right up to the typical start of the rainy season between May 15 - June 1. All of this has yet to play out, but in the event that it were... I'd be curious to know which prior years also saw "wet Aprils" in Florida and how that might have correlated with those respective Atlantic Hurricane Season & those regions more commonly impacted by landfall events. Finally, even "if" this April were truly this wet, there may be little conclusive historical data to make any kind of correlation to the type of hurricane season activity we may anticipate. There may be one implication however, that might be gleaned from a particularly wet April here in Florida. It might suggest that whatever "diseased" mid or upper level dry conditions seemingly plaguing convection from developing and maintaining within the tropics for the last couple years, might be less of an inhibiting factor for this year; That, or those inhibiting conditions will be less of a factor at this general longitude. Suggestions of increased rainfall and enhanced wave activity throughout Central America might be a further indication of at least regional increased atmospheric instability.

I can't speak for the entire state but wetter Aprils in the Tampa bay region are highly correlated with el nino and we know what that does to hurricane activity.

[Bocadude85]

It has not been wetter then normal down here in South Florida. In fact parts of extreme South Florida are in a severe drought.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?FL