ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[tolakram]

Wow. Did you ever realize that there are some instances of multi-year events? Models are now extremely bullish. There has been evident atmospheric feedback/response and strong WWB due to super typhoon Maysak and Cyclone Pam. The most recent occrence of multi-year Niño was in 1986-88 when a moderate El Niño STRENGTHENED (after weakened) to a strong El Niño. This was also the first documented event to transition from Modoki to Eastern Equatorial.

Ha, yea, but I'm still not convinced. Is that chart ntxw posted monthly or "three month"?

edit: I see the full chart ... so everything I said was bunk. Oh well.

[tolakram]

So let's try this again.

When OND (October, November, December) is el nino how often is ASO (August, September, October) in the following year also above the el nino threshold?

68-69 (0.8, 0.8)
76-77 (0.8, 0.5)
86-87 (1.1, 1.6)
14-15 (0.7, ???) ???

[cycloneye]

April 9 CPC El Nino Advisory

Uncertainty over how strong El Nino will be by Summer and fall.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 April 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Special Notice: Starting in May 2015, the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion will be released on the second Thursday of each month.



Synopsis: There is an approximately 70% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 60% chance it will last through autumn.

By the end of March 2015, weak El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the expected tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.1oC in the Niño-4 region, +0.7oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +0.6oC and +1.4oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies increased substantially during the month (Fig. 3) in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across most of the Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with ocean-atmosphere coupling, enhanced convection shifted eastward to the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), while low-level westerly wind anomalies continued over the western equatorial Pacific and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued in the central Pacific. Also, both the traditional and the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to last month, more models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5oC) to continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the increase in subsurface temperatures, enhanced convection over the Date Line, and the increased persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which limits the forecast probabilities of El Niño through the year. At this time, there is also considerable uncertainty as to how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 70% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 60% chance that it will last through autumn (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

[cycloneye]

CPC blog discusses all about what will happen with El Nino.

Excerpt:

it’s way too early to know with 100% confidence if we will see a strong event, or even if El Niño will continue into this coming winter—the time of year when ENSO exerts its greatest influence on global precipitation and temperature patterns. The atmospheric coupling would need to continue, especially the persistence of westerly wind anomalies, which we did not see last year.

However, the combination of current conditions with model forecasts leads us to giving a 60-70% chance that El Niño will continue through the summer and into the fall.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... o-forecast

[Dean_175]

Although subsurface temperatures are similar to that of spring 1997, and we are ahead of 1997 in terms of SSTs, 1997 showed a much faster rate of warming than is observed now. And looking at the SST anomaly map in April and May 1997 showed the el nino looking more mature at each increment. Right now it looks pretty static and unchanging.

Nino3.4 temperature anomalies began increasing at a rate of around 0.5C per month starting late March/early April 1997, reaching over 1.5C by mid June.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Best model so far: JAMSTEC (although on a conservative side)

Base months: (A) Mar 2014 and (B) Feb 2015

In 2014, they predicted a weak El Niño for the SON 2014, avoiding the warm bias. Yes, it actually did pan out

SSTs



Nino 3.4 Anomaly



In 2015, they are showing a moderate El Niño

SSTs



Nino 3.4 Anomaly

[cycloneye]

March PDO data at +2.00

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the tropical tidbits site it looks like after a temporary drop in the ENSO it is now on the rise and don't be surprised that by the next update this is increased to +.8

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest update at +0.7°C and should later be official...

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the weekly update of 4/13/15 by CPC that has El Nino at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

There is no forecasted WWB of significance from guidance, just weakened easterlies east of the dateline. That may result in gradual warming in nino 3.4/3/1+2 but nothing major in the short term

[xtyphooncyclonex]

BOM ISSUES EL NIÑO ALERT

Tropical Pacific Ocean primed for El Niño in 2015
Issued on 14 April 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The chances of El Niño occurring in 2015 have increased. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average, trade winds remain weaker than average, and all models surveyed suggest further ocean warming will occur. As a result, the ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring this year.
Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Niño levels. Large areas of warmer-than-average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

All international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. However, the accuracy of model outlooks during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia. However, April to June is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia due to very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean. See the latest climate outlook.

[cycloneye]

Most models go with Moderate El Nino by August.

[Ntxw]

the thermocline slope has tipped over to the eastern Pacific. Steady warming is happening with weaker trade winds, I'm thinking next Monday we will see 0.8C or even 0.9C. For the next month or two it looks like a canonical type Nino (traditional) will transpire where nino 1+2 will remain warmer than 3.4. Beyond that though not sure but at least short term that's where it's moving to.

[Alyono]

perhaps the best model last year was the ENSO CLIPER model.

What is it saying. The dynamical models are as reliable as the politicians back in Indonesia

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe we can see at least a moderate starting next month. I would not be surprised then.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

perhaps the best model last year was the ENSO CLIPER model.

What is it saying. The dynamical models are as reliable as the politicians back in Indonesia

The best was the JAMSTEC, which showed weak Niño temps. CLIPER is overly consistent on neutral

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Models now agree on a moderate El Niño (+1.1°C) beginning in June

[abajan]

April 9 CPC El Nino Advisory

... The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.1oC in the Niño-4 region, +0.7oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +0.6oC and +1.4oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively ...

Thanks for the info, cycloneye but just in case you were wondering how to type the degree symbol on a keyboard, hold down the [Alt] key and then hit 0176 and then release [Alt]. Using that technique, the excerpt above would be appear as follows:

... The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.1°C in the Niño-4 region, +0.7°C in the Niño-3.4 region, and +0.6°C and +1.4°C in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively ...

http://www.alt-codes.net/degree_sign_alt_code.php

Cheers

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I am now seeing the BOM declare El Niño in 2 weeks (next update) and have high confidence of the anomaly increasing to around 0.8°-0.9°C next Monday. Possibly MODERATE El Niño would be declared by both BOM and CPC anytime in May.

But despite all those, the previous analogs told and better surface conditions for the brewing Niño, I still have some doubt of the El Niño continuing to later this year, after Summer. I know it is quite unlikely but as of now I think it would only peak at moderate-to-strong now. Niño regions aren't warming that fast. We should all now particularly that the dynamical models have shown a big warm bias especially at this early time of year. IMO it is more likely to happen compared to last year. Yet some of us in the thread play safe and some just favor whichever they like.