2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

What may be the best analog(s) for 2015?

[Ntxw]

What may be the best analog(s) for 2015?

2014 in my opinion. 1978, 1988 are some second Nino/+PDO couplets as well.

[Yellow Evan]

What may be the best analog(s) for 2015?

2014, 1987, 1997, 1941, 1992, 1993, 1983

[Yellow Evan]

Shear looks below normal still, and with the dramatic warming of Nino 1+2, will get lower soon.

This season could rival 1992, and honestly, is only a month away. Remember we got an early-season invest last year, and the -IOD means more northerly ITCZ, which favors an early start to the EPAC season.

Extrapolation of current MJO patterns would favor activity around early May and early June I think, but too early to know for sure.

[cycloneye]

My EPAC numbers are 23/12/8.

[Yellow Evan]

QB values seems positive so far in 2015. That favors weaker system IIRC.

[CrazyC83]

Now looking at the WPAC going bonkers, I think 30 named storms may not be out of reach this year.

[Yellow Evan]

Now looking at the WPAC going bonkers, I think 30 named storms may not be out of reach this year.

That's a little pushing it. At some point, SST upwelling from all the TC's could make conditions hostile.

I'd say somewhere between 20-25 is what we'll get.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear has been very violate like usual but has been a bit below normal when there are no cold fronts. Vertical instability looks well above average.

I did an outlook a couple week ago. Basically, I'm forecasting 23/10/5 for 2015.

[cycloneye]

Only one month away from the official start of the EPAC season. Will the Mexican / Central American coast see many landfalls?

[Yellow Evan]

Only one month away from the official start of the EPAC season. Will the Mexican / Central American coast see many landfalls?

Maybe. El Nino years don't necessarily have a lot of landfalls, but strong ones.

[Andrew92]

I just hope we don't have a repeat of what Norbert did to us last year in the Phoenix area, or get the scare like Odile gave us as she passed just to our south. Last September was crazy!

That said, I do think it will be quite busy, but most of the storm (hopefully) will be fishes. But the name Sandra really sticks out to me for some reason, and not in a good way. I guess I can hope it's because her sister that has her nickname has already been there and done that in 2012 in the Atlantic? I dunno though, Sandra sounds just mean.

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

That said, I do think it will be quite busy, but most of the storm (hopefully) will be fishes. But the name Sandra really sticks out to me for some reason, and not in a good way. I guess I can hope it's because her sister that has her nickname has already been there and done that in 2012 in the Atlantic? I dunno though, Sandra sounds just mean.

-Andrew92

The names Olaf and Terry scare me a little this year. Sandra just doesn't scare me.

[Kingarabian]

Think we'll get a storm in may?

[Yellow Evan]

Think we'll get a storm in may?

Early May? Maybe. MJO is set to come around in about 2-3 weeks which raise our chances at something, but the models (that are better and more conservative than seasons past) are not showing anything. Late May? Probs, we'll get a Kelvin Wave to span something. Worth noting two things 1) the start of the EPAC seasons is usually when the ITCZ starts to life north. That has not happened yet and 2) 16 of the last 15 Mays have had a storm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My prediction
21/15/8
ACE 190-215

[Steve820]

Due to the El Nino, we could see a really active season here this year. I'm thinking between 20 - 25 systems will develop, and I wouldn't be surprised if we go as far as the Greek letters.

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing a bunch of lows within the next week.
Also:


Maybe we could see something before May 15.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS showing a bunch of lows within the next week.
Also:


Maybe we could see something before May 15.

New GFS always shows a bunch of ITCZ lows.

Image doesn't work.

[CrazyC83]

Imagine if the only CONUS landfall...is in California? I could certainly see such.