Texas Spring-2015

[Brandon8181]

Well...I'm excited to say sometime hopefully one of the biggest severe weather events this May I'll be able to go Storm Spotting. I've been every year, but nothing like this. I've got cleared from my wife AND work..to be gone about a week.

I plan to have my Baron Services Satellite radar active too.. So I'm really excited. I'll generally be in Texas / Oklahoma/ Kansas so maybe I can meet up with someone

So what are your thoughts for severe weather this May?

[Brent]

Just watched a local TV weather report. Not totally backtracking on any severe weather for tomorrow but it seems to be shifting elsewhere. Man I smell a bust for good thunderstorms. Not a rain bust, but a disappearing chance for some powerful t-storms. I hope I am wrong. At least in my area, thunder and lightning have been heard and seen without rain whereas rain has been seen and heard without thunder and lightning. The three have never really made and appearance together for any length of time. Maybe once overnight but nothing to brag about. When does winter start?

It seems everytime they get worked up about DFW getting something it trends elsewhere. I just watched the TV met show 2 models, one model had a big widespread event tonight, the other had it completely going around us,

LOL, The hi-res NAM doesn't have much of anything.

[JayDT]

Hopefully we get some good rain across the entire area. I dont even know what to expect right now. Lol

[gboudx]

Severe T-Storm Watch all of DFW until 10pm

[Tireman4]

Look at the stuff moving up from Victoria. Oh I am going to have fun this evening taking my child to swimming and karate practice...ughh..


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 1000pm for the western counties of SE TX.

Air mass has become unstable and approach of upper level disturbance is resulting in a rapid increase in strong to severe thunderstorms. Recent storms near Refugio, TX have produced a confirmed tornado and this intense supercell is moving toward Calhoun County with radar DBZ approaching 65-75. Strong storm over NE Wharton County moving toward Fort Bend County is also showing some radar indicated rotation.

All severe modes will be possible…including large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Severe thunderstorms earlier produced hail large enough to damage vehicles at I-10 and Beltway 8 near the City Center.

Radar shows storm motions with the more intense supercells are slowing suggesting very high rainfall rates…2-3” per hour. Flash flooding may rapidly develop with any slow moving storms. Adverse weather will likely impact metro Houston area near/during rush hour with both a severe and flash flood threat.

[weatherdude1108]

I left work an hour early to outrun the storm. Ended up weakening. Getting a few sprinkles here with thunder. If we can get desperately needed rain in the next few days without the large hail and other Spring severeness, that would be awesome. Anyway.

[TarrantWx]

Is there some kind of shield over DFW?? I guess I can't complain after the deluge on Monday morning, but that was really a one-off because we have been seeming to miss out on everything this year (and the last 5 years or so). The storms to our southwest that were racing northeast made a hard right turn and the storm that was to our west moving east completely dissipated before getting here. Now the HRRR simulated reflectivity is showing nothing here. Watching the radar has become a depressing chore instead of an exciting task.

[Brent]

Well looks like same old same old for DFW

[Portastorm]

Is there some kind of shield over DFW?? I guess I can't complain after the deluge on Monday morning, but that was really a one-off because we have been seeming to miss out on everything this year (and the last 5 years or so). The storms to our southwest that were racing northeast made a hard right turn and the storm that was to our west moving east completely dissipated before getting here. Now the HRRR simulated reflectivity is showing nothing here. Watching the radar has become a depressing chore instead of an exciting task.

You've got company. The Austin rain dome (the one which doesn't allow it rain over the city) was operational again today. Severe weather approaches from southwest moving northeast ... storms weaken to just about nothing as they approach city limits ... light rain at best falls, while areas to south and east get the deluge. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[gboudx]

Here's Steve McCauleys explanation for lack of storms in DFW area.

We are now seeing the prediction from the TTU model unfold this evening. As some of you may recall, the TTU model was going for no storm formation at all in north Texas today due to strong sinking air which was expected to develop on the backside of the big thunderstorm complex in SE Texas. This sinking air was supposed to suppress ALL storms today in the DFW and surrounding area. Therefore, when storms began to pop in north Texas, my first reaction was, "Hey, the TTU Model was wrong!"

But not so fast. It appears its timing was only slightly off. The sinking air is now very much in evidence across north Texas which is probably why we have seen the utter collapse of the severe storms just west of the Metroplex. And as this bubble of subsiding air moves east, it will park itself over our area this evening and shut down rain chances for the remainder of the night.

This is very frustrating since there is NO CAP over us right now...nothing to stop the storms from popping. Nothing except falling air, that is. It would have been so easy to turn the atmosphere over tonight with heavy rains were it not for the subsidence. And I hate to say it, but sinking air creates its own cap...sigh.

Storms will, however, continue outside this sinking air zone to the east and far west of us. We can be thankful for the good rains many saw just a couple of days ago in the central portions of north Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Off topic but im watching "TTC an introduction to meteorology" and its excellent.

[TheAustinMan]

Even with the thunder, there was just one sizeable (at least 30 dBz) thunderstorm cell that made its way to southwest Austin with frequent lightning, but even still the rest of Austin looks to be stiffed this afternoon. Hopefully something bigger comes here eventually.


What you are looking at: Total precipitation as estimated by radar since the rains began
Source: Wunderground

[TheAustinMan]

Tomorrow's day 2 outlook for severe weather.


What you are looking at: Storm Prediction Center's outlook for potential severe weather.
Shapefile from Storm Prediction Center that I visualized.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Mean storms headed to the Houston area. Keep an eye out fellas

[vbhoutex]

To say the least it was a VERY active night!! Depending on where you were in SE TX you got just about any variety of weather you wanted yesterday. At my house we had quarter sized hail with up to ping pong size nearby and 3 different rounds of STRONG storms. No damage at my place except for some tree debris down from the hail, but 2.10" of rain for the day. At least one tornado was reported in the Woodlands area with some significant damage to homes and trees. In Huntsville at SFAU the recreation center had a wall come down and flood the facility due to flooding outside of the facility due to heavy rains.
Unfortunately models are telling us we may have at least one more round this evening. Currently appears that we will have sufficient daytime heating to fuel the storms too. Flash flood watch in effect till at least 8am Sat.
To say the least our SE TX folks need to keep an eye on the weather all day and night long.

[Ralph's Weather]

Had some seriously heavy rain yesterday evening. My weather station showed rates up to 4"/hr. We received around .75" primarily in a 30 minute period.

[gboudx]

To say the least our SE TX folks need to keep an eye on the weather all day and night long.

Here's jeff's update this morning for you SETX folks:

Threat for organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over all of SE TX.

Next upper level impulse over MX will rotate into TX this afternoon and across SE TX early this evening. Area was hard hit yesterday afternoon and evening and today looks potentially worse than yesterday. Low level boundary responsible for training of flooding rainfall overnight has shifted southward into the nearshore waters with meso high located over SW LA. Cool stabilized air mass over SE TX will quickly be replaced with a warm humid unstable air mass by midday as winds return to the south starting the moisture pump into the region. Low level shear values remain favorable for storm rotation this morning with strongly backs low level winds out of the east north of the surface boundary.

Air mass becomes extremely unstable by early afternoon with CAPE values soaring to 3000 J/kg and strong mid level cooling producing very steep lapse rates (rate at which surface air parcels will ascend). Low level shear values should gradually weaken as winds veer to the SE, but overall effective shear will remain 40-50kts over the region. Large MCS possible bow echo is strongly modeled by nearly all guidance to develop between Del Rio and San Antonio early this afternoon and move into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Potential is there for widespread wind damage along the leading edge of this complex and SPC has much of the area in an enhanced severe risk. Cannot rule out a few tornadoes in any cells that develop early this afternoon near the low level boundary…as we saw yesterday the supercells south of the warm front were long tracked and dangerous. Will update the severe potential around midday.

Flood Threat:
Grounds are now saturated over the region after widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 6-7 inches especially over Liberty and Chambers Counties. Upstream air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico is extremely moist with moisture levels near equal to June or July. This air mass will rapidly return to the region by late morning. Storms will again exhibit intense short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. I am worried about the low level boundary returning northward over the area early this afternoon as this could result in the formation of slow moving excessive rainfall prior to the complex of storm arriving this evening. Additional rainfall will run-off and cause flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is possible with isolated totals upwards of 6 inches.

Flash Flood Watch has been extended until 800am Saturday morning.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's early morning email pretty much says as much. STAY AWARE SE TX folks

Threat for organized severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over all of SE TX.

Next upper level impulse over MX will rotate into TX this afternoon and across SE TX early this evening. Area was hard hit yesterday afternoon and evening and today looks potentially worse than yesterday. Low level boundary responsible for training of flooding rainfall overnight has shifted southward into the nearshore waters with meso high located over SW LA. Cool stabilized air mass over SE TX will quickly be replaced with a warm humid unstable air mass by midday as winds return to the south starting the moisture pump into the region. Low level shear values remain favorable for storm rotation this morning with strongly backs low level winds out of the east north of the surface boundary.

Air mass becomes extremely unstable by early afternoon with CAPE values soaring to 3000 J/kg and strong mid level cooling producing very steep lapse rates (rate at which surface air parcels will ascend). Low level shear values should gradually weaken as winds veer to the SE, but overall effective shear will remain 40-50kts over the region. Large MCS possible bow echo is strongly modeled by nearly all guidance to develop between Del Rio and San Antonio early this afternoon and move into SE TX late this afternoon and evening. Potential is there for widespread wind damage along the leading edge of this complex and SPC has much of the area in an enhanced severe risk. Cannot rule out a few tornadoes in any cells that develop early this afternoon near the low level boundary…as we saw yesterday the supercells south of the warm front were long tracked and dangerous. Will update the severe potential around midday.

Flood Threat:

Grounds are now saturated over the region after widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 6-7 inches especially over Liberty and Chambers Counties. Upstream air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico is extremely moist with moisture levels near equal to June or July. This air mass will rapidly return to the region by late morning. Storms will again exhibit intense short term rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour. I am worried about the low level boundary returning northward over the area early this afternoon as this could result in the formation of slow moving excessive rainfall prior to the complex of storm arriving this evening. Additional rainfall will run-off and cause flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is possible with isolated totals upwards of 6 inches.

Flash Flood Watch has been extended until 800am Saturday morning

.

[Tireman4]

To say the least it was a VERY active night!! Depending on where you were in SE TX you got just about any variety of weather you wanted yesterday. At my house we had quarter sized hail with up to ping pong size nearby and 3 different rounds of STRONG storms. No damage at my place except for some tree debris down from the hail, but 2.10" of rain for the day. At least one tornado was reported in the Woodlands area with some significant damage to homes and trees. In Huntsville at SFAU the recreation center had a wall come down and flood the facility due to flooding outside of the facility due to heavy rains.
Unfortunately models are telling us we may have at least one more round this evening. Currently appears that we will have sufficient daytime heating to fuel the storms too. Flash flood watch in effect till at least 8am Sat.
To say the least our SE TX folks need to keep an eye on the weather all day and night long.

We got blistered. David is right. I mean lit up. I am leaving early ( well, one hour..LOL) from work because rain and Houston do not mix. Not the heavy stuff. Stay tuned.