ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

I am now seeing the BOM declare El Niño in 2 weeks (next update) and have high confidence of the anomaly increasing to around 0.8°-0.9°C next Monday. Possibly MODERATE El Niño would be declared by both BOM and CPC anytime in May.

But despite all those, the previous analogs told and better surface conditions for the brewing Niño, I still have some doubt of the El Niño continuing to later this year, after Summer. I know it is quite unlikely but as of now I think it would only peak at moderate-to-strong now. Niño regions aren't warming that fast. We should all now particularly that the dynamical models have shown a big warm bias especially at this early time of year. IMO it is more likely to happen compared to last year. Yet some of us in the thread play safe and some just favor whichever they like.

Nino regions rarely warm up rapidly. Furthermore, it is very unusual for El Ninos to die in the summer, provided a new subsurface pool develops of course.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Please tell me your basis on being overly confident on a Super El Niño? I even remember your posts last year insistent on such.

Other than subsurface warming and WWB

As I have said, there is LOW skill in this time of year. Please understand my full post.. I mentioned that some doubt, but that does not mean it is unlikely for a Super to develop, just this time it has to overcome the Spring barrier

Most likely for now - MODERATE TO STRONG

[Yellow Evan]

Please tell me your basis on being overly confident on a Super El Niño? I even remember your posts last year insistent on such.

Other than subsurface warming and WWB

As I have said, there is LOW skill in this time of year. Please understand my full post.. I mentioned that some doubt, but that does not mean it is unlikely for a Super to develop, just this time it has to overcome the Spring barrier

Most likely for now - MODERATE TO STRONG

I didn't say we were gonna get a super El Nino. I agree we'll most likely get a moderate to strong El Nino (aka 2009), though a super El Nino isn't impossible either, but semi-unlikely. I just don't doubt that the El Nino will last into the winter at this point.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest plume of models of Mid-April and Moderate El Nino is what the majority of them are forecasting for the ASO period.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Maybe it will be super...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... l-el-nino/

[Dean_175]

Maybe it will be super...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... l-el-nino/

Perhaps, but the article seems way too bullish. I would say conditions this year do look better than last - but a moderate to strong (2009 intensity) is more likely IMO. We have to get through the spring barrier to get a better idea, and I think some models (especially CFS and ECMWF) are overpredicting the strength right now.


On the other hand, I think the NWS outlook of only a 60 percent chance of el nino this winter is too conservative.

[Dean_175]

Ntxw- why are the daily SOI contributions still positive? Its been positive more often than not for the past 2 weeks.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw- why are the daily SOI contributions still positive? Its been positive more often than not for the past 2 weeks.

Currently the MJO is weak and what of it is kind of sluggish over the IO. The Global Wind Oscillation is actually Nina like thus probably part of the reason we are seeing +SOI albeit weak. It will likely remain so for awhile. The reason the Nino regions are warming is because the OKW is moving across the eastern Pacific and the trades remain weak.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Much higher probabilities now from IRI/CPC

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the chart on tropical tidbits we are now entering anomalies of 1.0 in the 3\4 region an if I'm correct 1.0 is a moderate El Nino which it may be by the next weeklies

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xironman]

Maybe it will be super...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... l-el-nino/

In my opinion the quality at the CWG has been going on the inverse of thier need for views.

[tolakram]

Maybe it will be super...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... l-el-nino/

In my opinion the quality at the CWG has been going on the inverse of thier need for views.

Why? The article discusses the chances, who was wrong last year, and who is forecasting what this year. I'm not sure the headline, usually written by someone else, reflects the quality of the article.

[cycloneye]

Finnally it looks like a true El Nino out there.

[Ntxw]

WWB is coming west of the dateline, this will push WPAC waters. How far east will it go? Not the massive burst in March but adding fuel to the fire. Look for enhanced typhoon activity in the coming week or two.

[cycloneye]

2015 El Nino is ahead of the 1997 one as of April 18 (+0.7C per CPC) but I suspect this year will not keep the pace.

[Dean_175]

2015 El Nino is ahead of the 1997 one as of April 18 (+0.7C per CPC) but I suspect this year will not keep the pace.

Me neither. The only reason 2015 is ahead of 1997 is because this is a multi-year el nino. 1997 showed an extremely fast rate of warming starting in April. I don't think we are seeing that now.

I will change my mind if we reach 1.5C before mid June.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This week is looking like somewhere between 0.7 and 1.1 for Niño 3 and 3.4

[Hurricaneman]

This week is looking like somewhere between 0.7 and 1.1 for Niño 3 and 3.4

I'm leaning towards 1.0 myself

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe 0.9 to 1.1 something like that.

As for its peak, I am expecting a hybrid of 1997, 1957 and 2009

[LarryWx]

Per this evening's free weekly newsletter, LC still doesn't think we'll have El Niño this summer and even thinks we'll have neutral negative! I don't agree at all as I'm expecting El Nino. However, if he somehow gets this correct, it would be one of the greatest seasonal calls in a number of years:

"Part of the issue here is whether we will have an El Nino that builds through the summer into the fall and winter of 2015. I say no, on the idea that the general mean of forecasts are skewed due to the crazy depiction shown by the PC/CFS outlook (+2.8 deviation at peak). There are a number of outlooks that predict a neutral ENSO anomaly signal. Since the tropics are booming with thunderstorms, and drought appears to be at a minimum in the 'usual suspect' places like Africa, Indonesia, Australia, and South America, the scenario shaping up is to favor a gradual cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to a slightly negative phase this coming summer."