Texas Spring-2015

[aggiecutter]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 81
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTH OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

[TheAustinMan]

Storms have initiated along a line from Southeast Austin to Hearne, TX. Given the severe thunderstorm watch for those areas I would closely monitor these systems for any signs of severe development.


Source: radar.weather.gov

[weatherdude1108]

Anyone else worried about the favorable severe conditions WEST of the SPC's line? I know moisture is close to only an inch output? BUT the old dry line may have something in store for Central Texas today. Mexico is already having storms develop across the border.......Aggiecutter? What do you think?

I'm not. Most of the vorticity and instability in the atmosphere has moved to our east/northeast. Aggiecutter's area will be under the gun today. As for those Mexican storms, they usually fire off the Burro mountains in the spring. Shouldn't be a big deal and won't impact the AUS area.

Wish I had an anemometer. I wondered just how strong the storm's outflow last night was ... had to have gusts in the 50-60 mph range at house. The winds, IMO, were more impressive than the hail down here. But I know areas of Lakeway into the central metro area got hammered worse with the hail.

We had some nice winds. A tree branch fell over in a front yard several houses down from us.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

These storms rolling through are mean. About to come through here.

[vbhoutex]

Just finished our second round of severe storms in as many days here in Houston. Entire city was under Severe Tstorm warning. Hail was reported in all sections of the city anywhere from pea size to 2" size. Once we have daylight tomorrow I am expecting reports of extensive damage. That was our 3rd round of severe weather this week!! We really could use a break from it here in Houston!!

[Brent]

Looks like another multi-day threat could begin as early as Tuesday... and go on through Friday at least.

[Brent]

Holy wow

Day 3(Wednesday) enhanced over parts of DFW!!!



NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OKLAHOMA CITY SEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER
AT 00Z/THU SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT STORM MODE WILL
DOMINANT. IF CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE THE
MOST FAVORED STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
COLD-POOL ORGANIZATION WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS
WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. EITHER WAY...SOME TORNADOES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ROTATING CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS. WILL ADD A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF OKC SEWD TO NEAR AND EAST OF DALLAS.

[Ntxw]

I'm not sold yet on a large scale severe (tornadic) event for us yet. I think another several rounds of MCS is the more likely scenario, though most of us will gladly accept that. We'll see though, it's a day by day type of thing and see where boundaries set up especially with a slow/stalled front.

[dhweather]

We got about .6 from the Saturday night system, and we are up to 3.73" on the month. Hope we can string some more systems together and get these lakes filled back up!

As of this morning, Lake Lavon is down 2.63 feet , was down 12.39 three months ago

Ray Hubbard is down 4.54 feet, was down 9.66 three months ago

[gboudx]

I have 0 doubt both of those lakes will fill and exceed conservation pool capacity. It's how high do they go before they need to release water downstream; and what impact does it have on the Hwy 78 construction when Lavon needs to release?

[Texas Snowman]

A bit Cavanaugh-eque...

-----
FXUS64 KFWD 202045
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY IS MUDDLED AND CHALLENGING DUE TO DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
THE MODELS. PART OF THE ISSUE WITH THE MODELS AND THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THAT THE DISTURBANCES AND/OR ATMOSPHERIC
ELEMENTS THAT ARE KEY TO DIFFERENT FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE NOT BEING
WELL SAMPLED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN OR MEXICO. THE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY IS MODERATE THAT WE
WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE SPECIFICS IS LOW. NOW WE JUST HAVE TO ANSWER THE
WHERE...WHEN...AND THREATS QUESTIONS. I THINK IT IS SAFE TO SAY
THAT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE DAILY CHANGES AND IT IS IMPORTANT THIS
WEEK TO CHECK THE LATEST UPDATES EACH DAY.

TONIGHT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY STARTING TO TURN TO
THE SOUTH...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY TREK ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND/OR NORTHWEST
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH TEXAS.

ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS COMES
FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300K LEVEL. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A SUITE OF OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE
4KM WRF AND ECMWF INDICATE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL CARRY A 30-40 POP ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY
TOMORROW BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL OCCUR. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...VIRGA MAY BE OBSERVED WITH
ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO ON
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE TO
OUR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DRYLINE WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR THESE STORMS TO AFFECT OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR
THIS SLIGHT CHANCE.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG A WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER AND MAY TRACK INTO NORTH OR NORTHEAST TEXAS. AS ALSO
MENTIONED IN THE SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK...STORM MODE IS UNCERTAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BUT
THERE IS ALSO SUPPORT THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK
SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE MAY BE
CLOSER TO OUR WESTERN BORDER AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH TEXAS WILL BE WARM AND VERY
UNSTABLE /CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OVER 40 KTS/ AND ANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR THE DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY ELSEWHERE IF ANY
OTHER BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINE
STORM EVOLUTION AS WE APPROACH WEDNESDAY BUT THE KEY MESSAGE AT
THIS TIME IS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA COULD BE UNDER A THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW
LOCATED IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW...AND SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SHEAR VALUES ARE GREATER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THAN THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE FOR WEDNESDAY. WE WILL
HAVE TO BE AWARE OF ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER IN THE AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY.

ON FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS
FROM BAJA BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS BEFORE A FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GFS. THE
GFS HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS FOCUS MORE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP 50-60 POPS BUT EXTEND THE COVERAGE AREA
AND TIMING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION/MODE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN.

WHILE IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO DIVE INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS FOR STORM
EVOLUTION...MODE...AND SEVERITY IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND
FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED ON
ANY OF THESE DAYS.

A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE STORMS ON FRIDAY
RESULTING IN A PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE GFS IS QUICK TO RETURN MOISTURE AND DEVELOP MORE STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THIS SEEMS TOO FAST FOR THE MOISTURE RETURN BUT WILL
KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

JLDUNN

[Brent]

and it's hatched for the western half of DFW:

SIG SEVERE 28,430 3,328,610 Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/THU AT FREDERICK OK AND VERNON TX
SHOW 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 9.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...AN IMPRESSIVE WIND-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT BELOW
850 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 60 KT. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE EARLY IN THE EVENT.
HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
WITH PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS. A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING MCS MAY
DEVELOP A LINEAR STRUCTURE AND COLD POOL EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE
THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
EAST TX AND NW LA DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

[texas1836]

and it's hatched for the western half of DFW:

SIG SEVERE 28,430 3,328,610 Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/THU AT FREDERICK OK AND VERNON TX
SHOW 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 9.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...AN IMPRESSIVE WIND-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT BELOW
850 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 60 KT. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE EARLY IN THE EVENT.
HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE DOMINANT CELLS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
WITH PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS. A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING MCS MAY
DEVELOP A LINEAR STRUCTURE AND COLD POOL EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE
THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
EAST TX AND NW LA DURING THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

This could be the one to finish off the lakes. However we could do without tornadoes and large hail, we have 2 new vehicals.

[gboudx]

Wichita Falls area still needs tons of rain, so I hope they're able to join in on the lake level improvement party.

[Ntxw]

This could be the one to finish off the lakes. However we could do without tornadoes and large hail, we have 2 new vehicals.

Lavon will likely fill up to conversation within the next month is my guess. Looking at the drought monitor there is a very stark contrast (update as of last Thursday). Eastplexers; Dallas, Collin, Rockwall counties etc; may get downgraded to moderate or abnormally dry and some may even have drought removed completely. Westplexers are still in extreme and exceptional drought just a few counties over. They have been receiving some good rainfalls after the latest update though. Far east Texas, southeast Texas, far west Texas is nearly drought free. West of I35 into the panhandle is the last remaining grounds.



Latest




Once upon a time it was this..oh the horror

[SouthernMet]

I am concerned about a possible lower end outbreak, but an outbreak nonetheless across central, north and east tx wednesday-friday, with potential for tornadoes, tomorrow.

[TarrantWx]

I am concerned about a possible lower end outbreak, but an outbreak nonetheless across central, north and east tx wednesday-friday, with potential for tornadoes, tomorrow.

I think NWS Fort Worth agrees with you. This is from their 11:55AM AFD Update.

"OUR CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH IMPACTS TO THE REGION IS
INCREASING FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY...ONE WILL BE ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM THESE TWO
FOCUS POINTS...IT IS POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...AND STRONG SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE AREA. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE PROVIDED THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE THREATS FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING."


I'll be interested to read their afternoon AFD and also to see the 1730Z Day 2 SPC outlook here in the next 30 minutes.

[Ntxw]

I agree the set is looking more ominous, especially where that stalled front is. Jet will be screaming overhead, large supercells may follow that front and be long tracks. The dryline storms probably will converge into an MCS but the stuff along that frontal boundary needs to be watched. Be aware next few days.

[Brent]

So where did all these noisy storms come from this morning? lol

Isolated light shower was the 4:30am forecast.

In other news:

[TarrantWx]

[quote="Brent"]So where did all these noisy storms come from this morning? lol

Isolated light shower was the 4:30am forecast.

I was wondering the same thing about this mornings storms. Most of them stayed to my north but there were some very beautiful clouds associated with them.