Texas Spring-2015

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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#401 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:42 pm

Image
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#402 Postby gboudx » Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:56 pm

I haven't seen a hazard risk so ominous for this area in a long time. I wish we could turn down the dial on the tornado and hail threat some more.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#403 Postby SouthernMet » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:01 pm

TarrantWx wrote:
SouthernMet wrote:I am concerned about a possible lower end outbreak, but an outbreak nonetheless across central, north and east tx wednesday-friday, with potential for tornadoes, tomorrow.


I think NWS Fort Worth agrees with you. This is from their 11:55AM AFD Update.

"OUR CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH IMPACTS TO THE REGION IS
INCREASING FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY...ONE WILL BE ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. ASIDE FROM THESE TWO
FOCUS POINTS...IT IS POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...AND STRONG SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE AREA. MORE DETAILS
WILL BE PROVIDED THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE THREATS FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING."


I'll be interested to read their afternoon AFD and also to see the 1730Z Day 2 SPC outlook here in the next 30 minutes.


"High Impacts"... and FW nws has put out a medium risk for tornadoes. This usually warrants a Moderate Risk, and will be our first one of the season.
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#404 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:21 pm

Gulp. :darrow:

"STRONG INSTABILITY...UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...AND STRONG SHEAR."
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Re:

#405 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:41 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Gulp. :darrow:

"STRONG INSTABILITY...UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE...AND STRONG SHEAR."


I've been in Alabama every spring before this one... yep, that was usually a bad day...
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#406 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:43 pm

Some of my friends at school are still talking about the storm that passed through Saturday night here. I'm just thinking to myself that the storms tomorrow might make Saturday's storms look like your typical rain storm.
:eek:
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#407 Postby dhweather » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:57 pm

rom: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Tuesday, 21 April 2015 12:40 CDT

Hello,

Confidence is increasing that Wednesday afternoon and night will be an active day in north and central Texas. Thunderstorms are likely, yet not everyone will receive severe weather. Those areas which do see severe weather will likely see high impacts, including the possibility of large hail, tornadoes, damaging winds, and localized flooding. A short PDF has been attached that shows the key points, areas, and confidence.

BOTTOM LINE:
Emergency Managers, elected and public safety officials should be prepared for the possibility of significant severe weather Wednesday through Friday. There will be several rounds of severe weather beginning Wednesday and lasting through Friday. Storm spotters should be prepared for activation by the mid-afternoon hours on Wednesday.

PRIMARY THREATS:
Wednesday: Supercell thunderstorms could produce hail greater than 2” in diameter, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility overnight Wednesday night.
Thursday: Supercell thunderstorms could produce hail greater than 2” in diameter, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes.
Friday: Supercell thunderstorms could produce hail greater than 2” in diameter, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes.

LOCATIONS/TIMING:
For Wednesday: the most likely time for severe thunderstorms is between 3 PM and Midnight. However, thunderstorms could develop before 3 PM and linger much past midnight. All areas have the potential for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However, the highest potential will be along and north of Interstate 20, as well as areas west of US 281.

CONFIDENCE:
Confidence is moderate to high for this forecast, with a level of 7 on a 10 point scale. Confidence is high, as the necessary ingredients for severe weather will be in place on Wednesday. The combination of moisture, lift, instability, and favorable wind shear exists to produce supercell thunderstorms Wednesday. Confidence remains high for the ingredients for organized severe weather to continue Thursday and Friday.
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#408 Postby gboudx » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:04 pm

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#409 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:39 pm

Could the rain from this morning leave boundaries that enhance storms tomorrow?
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#410 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:53 pm

A portion of the afternoon discussion from Norman NWS...

-----

AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTH TEXAS. IN RESPONSE TO EARLY DAY SHOWERS/STORMS...A
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IF STORMS CAN
REMAIN SURFACE BASED AND MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BECOMING ELEVATED QUICKLY. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS ARE
LIKELY TO LEAD TO STORM MERGERS AND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING STORM
COMPLEX TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST...THOUGH THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
DAY FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. TODAYS EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT...THOUGH THE GFS REMAINS THE
FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE NAM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THESE
TWO...AND HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD ITS DEPICTION. A DRYLINE LOOKS
TO MIX EAST TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION THAT MAY OCCUR...AS THE LARGER SCALE GFS/EC MODELS
DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER IN THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...ASSUMING EVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
ALL ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...INCLUDING TORNADOES. AT
THIS TIME...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO PRECISELY
WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL END UP...AND WHERE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY
DEVELOP. EVEN THOUGH MOST MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATER THREAT
WILL RESIDE EAST OF I-35...EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN DRYLINE POSITION
MAY HAVE A GREAT OUTCOME ON WHAT UNFOLDS. ANYONE LIVING FROM
KANSAS TO TEXAS...EAST TO MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...AND LOUISIANA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SETUP.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#411 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:58 pm

Steve McCauley is concerned and that should make everyone concerned

Quote from his facebook post:

I am getting increasingly concerned about our weather setup for tomorrow. Conditions appear very favorable for a significant severe weather episode for north Texas including the Metroplex. In fact storms may actually INTENSIFY as they approach DFW Wednesday evening rather than weaken!

notice how the dryline bulges out between Midland and Abilene. When the dryline does this, severe supercell thunderstorms often form at the tip one after the other and move east. This would put the Metroplex in the crosshairs Wednesday night.

Storms that form in this environment will have a strong possibility of rotating with the attendant threat of tornado formation. Obviously, it is impossible to predict where a tornado will touch down this far in advance, but it is likely that our first TORNADO WATCH will be posted for much of north Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening.
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#412 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:04 pm

:uarrow: and the frontal boundary will lay the train track for them to fuel and move over the same areas. Winds aloft will be ripping across North Texas, this jet streak is often seen in the panhandle and Oklahoma during outbreaks.

Areas along and east of 35 may see some significant flooding from any areas of training.
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#413 Postby gboudx » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:09 pm

Here's the DFW AFD for anyone having connection issues to their website.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY...DRIVEN BY A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM MILAM TO LEON COUNTY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THESE TWO
AREAS THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO KEEP LOW POPS OVERNIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
COULD SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES MARKEDLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
ARE STILL SEVERAL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SPECIFICS OF STORM
EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW BUT WE ARE CERTAIN THAT THE
INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S...INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH WITH OVER 2000-3000
J/KG CAPE AND THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE WITH
VALUES OF 40-60 KTS ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE REGION WILL BE UNCAPPED OR AT THE MOST
WEAKLY CAPPED BY MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL STORMS DEVELOP. THERE ARE THREE
MAIN FOCUS AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT WE WILL BE WATCHING... 1) THE
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST WHERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED WITH THE GFS POSITIONING IT CLOSEST TO OUR
CWA. 2) A FRONT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN TRACK
SOUTHEAST IN OUR AREA...WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY THEY WILL MERGE
INTO AN MCS THAT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. 3) SOME STORMS MAY
FORM ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WARM FRONT IS WEAKLY DEFINED IN THE MODELS AT
THIS TIME AND MAY ALREADY BE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LIKELY FALL WITHIN
OPTION 2 AND THEN OPTION 1 LISTED ABOVE. HOWEVER...SINCE WE WILL
BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED...ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING THAT ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE UNDER A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE BEST THREATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALVES OF THE
CWA. HIGH IMPACTS ARE LIKELY WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW...HAVE BROAD BRUSHED 40 POPS ACROSS THE REGION.
IDEALLY...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT
THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ AND
OUR CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS AND A SEVERE WEATHER RISK DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO A
MCS MOVING INTO AND/OR THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE STORM EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY IS
ALSO IN QUESTION BUT APPEARS TO BE TIED TO EITHER THE DRYLINE
ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND/OR A WEAK FRONT ENTERING OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO ANALYZE FOR
ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...WILL HELP PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WHILE OUR CONFIDENCE IN WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW MUCH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IS LOW...WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
ONCE AGAIN MODERATE TO HIGH. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCE FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SENDING
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HIGHEST
POPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
35/35E BEING HIGHLIGHTED FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. AS THE
DRYLINE/FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA...THE RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST BY THE EVENING HOURS.

SATURDAY IS LOOKING PLEASANT AND DRY BUT RAIN RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PACIFIC FRONT NEVER FULLY CLEARS
THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND DOES NOT CUT OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALLOWING FOR QUICK MOISTURE RETURN ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND
DEEPER. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ON SUNDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST ON MONDAY
BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED IN THE COMING DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION...IT WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLDUNN
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Re:

#414 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:13 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: and the frontal boundary will lay the train track for them to fuel and move over the same areas. Winds aloft will be ripping across North Texas, this jet streak is often seen in the panhandle and Oklahoma during outbreaks.

Areas along and east of 35 may see some significant flooding from any areas of training.


Yeah, that's got me really concerned for the potential of some powerful supercells with tornadoes - maybe longtracked? - in portions of North Texas.

I was just thinking a few days ago that it has been a pretty good while since all of the ingredients for a tornado outbreak have come together in North Texas. In recent years, as you mentioned, most of those parameters have taken place about 100-150 miles north of us in central Oklahoma.
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Re:

#415 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:15 pm

gboudx wrote:Here's the DFW AFD for anyone having connection issues to their website.


LOL I thought I was losing my mind with that...
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Re: Re:

#416 Postby gboudx » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:35 pm

Brent wrote:
gboudx wrote:Here's the DFW AFD for anyone having connection issues to their website.


LOL I thought I was losing my mind with that...


Ha, yeah the srh.noaa.gov/fwd server has had issues most of the day. But the AFD products are on a different server so those are accessible with /fwd down. I had to find one of the AFD products in my browser history.
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Re: Re:

#417 Postby TarrantWx » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:57 pm

gboudx wrote:
Brent wrote:
gboudx wrote:Here's the DFW AFD for anyone having connection issues to their website.


LOL I thought I was losing my mind with that...


Ha, yeah the srh.noaa.gov/fwd server has had issues most of the day. But the AFD products are on a different server so those are accessible with /fwd down. I had to find one of the AFD products in my browser history.


Here is a good website to find all of the products that the NWS puts out even if their websites are down:

http://kamala.cod.edu/tx
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#418 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:59 pm

Saw in another place that the spc tornado forecasting seminar is tonight, and they are going to be using this week's severe weather threats in it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu4iUsi5S_0
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#419 Postby Shoshana » Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:41 pm

It sounds really really bad for N Texas.

I think there is a widespread problem with the NWS sites, I couldn't get to Austin earlier.

Speaking of Austin, how far south is this event supposed to cover?
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#420 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:56 pm

:uarrow: I think it's suppose to be further north on Wednesday, but on Thursday and Friday it extends further south. But don't sleep on Wednesday either, Austin is still in the slight risk.
Last edited by TheProfessor on Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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