Texas Spring-2015

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Texas Snowman
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#541 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 5:47 pm

Tornadoes get all of the recognition of course, but storms can be costly and deadly even without them.

Case in point was the 1995 Mayfest storm - where a supercell was overtaken by a squall line - that rolled through the Metroplex.

It didn't produce a single tornado report to my knowledge, but the system still killed 13 people in the Metroplex and produced more than $1 billion in damage from huge hail and torrential rains that produced flash flooding.
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#542 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 5:50 pm

That storm east of Brownwood looks stout. From its radar presentation, I'm surprised it isn't severe warned.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#543 Postby Brent » Wed Apr 22, 2015 5:55 pm

Image

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CNTRL TX JUST WEST OF WACO MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO. STORMS APPEAR ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED WITH SPARSE
COVERAGE...SO ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY CONTINUE OVER CNTRL TX WEST OF THE
WACO AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXHIBITED MARGINAL HP SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT OVERALL THE STORM APPEARS TO BE ONLY LOOSELY
ORGANIZED. VWP DATA INDICATE STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER DUE TO LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...BUT WINDS IN
THE 0-2 KM LAYER REMAIN MODEST /GENERALLY AOB 20 KT/ WHICH IS
LIMITING THE SIZE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE...BUT WITH EMBEDDED
WEAK PERTURBATIONS. RAP SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND
700 MB WHICH /ALTHOUGH NOT SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT INITIATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES/ MAY ALSO BE LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO SOME DEGREE
WITHIN THE LOWER HALF OF THE STORMS. GIVEN THESE LIMITING
FACTORS...ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE LLJ...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT STORMS WILL BECOME ORGANIZED SUFFICIENTLY FOR WW ISSUANCE.
NEVERTHELESS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
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#544 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:02 pm

From Steve McCauley

Heavy thunderstorms continue to the west and southwest of the Metroplex, but they continue to struggle to maintain intensity. This will change tonight as an upper-level disturbance passes overhead allowing the storms to strengthen.

Stay tuned for updates!
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#545 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:09 pm

Tornado Warning not far from Canyon...


-----
TORNADO WARNING
TXC117-381-222345-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0016.150422T2251Z-150422T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
551 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 548 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH AND SOUTHWESTERN
RANDALL COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10208 3475 10222 3486 10220 3485 10182
3474 10183 3474 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 272DEG 19KT 3482 10214

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

NF
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#546 Postby Brent » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:10 pm

FWD doesn't even expect them to be severe???

Image
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#547 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:12 pm

:uarrow: That's from the the current storms Southwest of the Metroplex right now
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#548 Postby SouthernMet » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:31 pm

The cell heading for Waco is starting to take an interesting structure.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#549 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:37 pm

SouthernMet wrote:The cell heading for Waco is starting to take an interesting structure.


Starting to look like an HP beast. Tornado warning out on a little cell near Sweetwater.
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#550 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:41 pm

Tornado Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
636 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TXC151-353-230000-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150423T0000Z/
FISHER TX-NOLAN TX-
636 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL NOLAN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL FISHER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
ROSCOE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GANNON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3249 10032 3249 10058 3251 10063 3259 10062
3261 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 276DEG 17KT 3253 10054

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.00IN
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#551 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:42 pm

:uarrow: Lets hope it doesn't become a long tracked tornado because it could head straight for Abilene and even the Metroplex if it's a long lived super cell.
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#552 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:33 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
722 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TXC045-153-191-437-230045-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150423T0045Z/
SWISHER TX-FLOYD TX-HALL TX-BRISCOE TX-
722 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SWISHER...NORTHERN FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN HALL AND BRISCOE
COUNTIES...

AT 720 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MACKENZIE
RESERVOIR...OR 12 MILES WEST OF SILVERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM!

HAZARD...THREE INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED.
EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND VEHICLES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...CAPROCK CANYON
STATE PARK... VALLEY SCHOOLS...MACKENZIE RESERVOIR...CLAYTONVILLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3431 10094 3431 10104 3417 10104 3418 10157
3431 10157 3431 10178 3457 10200 3458 10200
3475 10163 3475 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 307DEG 26KT 3448 10153

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...3.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

29/93
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#553 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:34 pm

:uarrow: That storm seems to be moving towards the metroplex, lets hope it weakens 3 inch hail and 70 mph winds doesn't sound good. :eek:
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#554 Postby stephen23 » Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:44 pm

Is it even possible for the hail to make it here? That storm will get here after midnight. Do you ever get large hail that late at night. Though large hail usually happened during the late afternoon hours with max heating
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#555 Postby Shoshana » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:08 pm

stephen23 wrote:Is it even possible for the hail to make it here? That storm will get here after midnight. Do you ever get large hail that late at night. Though large hail usually happened during the late afternoon hours with max heating


Our last big hailstorm was at 3:30 am. We'd had a severe thunderstorm warning expire at 2 or 2:30 so we went to sleep and woke up when it sounded like someone was throwing golf balls at the house. So yes, it can happen.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#556 Postby Ntxw » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:08 pm

stephen23 wrote:Is it even possible for the hail to make it here? That storm will get here after midnight. Do you ever get large hail that late at night. Though large hail usually happened during the late afternoon hours with max heating


I don't think we will get hail that large. Most guidance maintains the storm however they also blossom storms ahead of it over I-20. Very weird set up.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#557 Postby Brent » Wed Apr 22, 2015 8:13 pm

I'll believe it when I see it... the timeframe seems to keep slipping later... and the later it gets the lower the threats will likely be.

The new day 1 barely has DFW in the slight!

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#558 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:14 pm

There is something developing north of Denton and some other weak echoes showing up near Decatur and Breckenridge. Curious to see what happens.
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Re: Texas Spring-2015

#559 Postby Brent » Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:43 pm

Image


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 96
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1025
PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS IN NW TX WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A
SMALL MCS AND MOVE ESEWD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
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#560 Postby TarrantWx » Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:00 pm

Man these storms in NW TX sure do mean business. Surprised to see tornado warnings this late into the evening. How long will these storms stay surface based I wonder? I'm also intrigued by the little pop up storms in front of the main cluster and the interaction they might have with the developing MCS. Outside of a tornado emergency this is one if the most strongly worded severe wx statements I've ever seen.

TXC275-230400-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-150423T0400Z/
KNOX TX-
1046 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY...

AT 1044 PM CDT...A STORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WAS LOCATED
NEAR WEINERT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. IN THE WAKE OF THE TORNADIC PART
OF THE STORM...HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN KNOX CITY.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND BASEBALL OR LARGER HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO AND 3 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUNDAY AND KNOX CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
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