Texas Spring-2015

[gboudx]

Steve McCauleys update

Showers and storms will be with us on and off today with the strongest activity arriving in the mid to late afternoon. Due to ongoing rain and cloud cover this morning, the threat for severe weather this afternoon is uncertain because the morning activity is desperately trying to stabilize north Texas making the LOWER atmosphere incapable of supporting severe storms later today. But the UPPER -levels of the atmosphere will be very favorable for severe storms, and thus we cannot rule out the possibility.

If conditions in the upper atmosphere can compensate for the stabilization that is going on in the lower atmosphere, we would see some heavy storms roll through much of the area this afternoon. If the morning activity can keep things stable, we will just get to enjoy some more good rainfall.

Updates to follow!

[TheProfessor]

Hmm... latest spc outlook kept our 10% tornado threat and decreased Kansas' to 5%, I would have thought it would have been the other way around. It seems like they are thinking that the out flow boundary left by the storms and the warm front could enhance super cells if they form a long the dryline.

[weatherdude1108]

Getting some really loud thunder and moderate rain. Dog woke me up almost an hour and a half ago to tell me it was coming.

Yeah, my dog shakes when she hears a clap of thunder. It can be pouring and she's fine, but once it starts to thunder, she shakes like clockwork. It started raining with thunder right before I left for work. Just moderate rain with some scary flashes of lightning at times during the commute. I am enjoying the rain though!

[Ntxw]

The models are not handling well the subtropical jet. It is deeply connected to convection in the tropical Pacific (think Nino). Thus any kind of clearing has not lasted or maintained for optimal severe weather. And streaming moisture continues to come out of Old Mexico, likely in aiding the very high water tables.

[dhweather]

We need sun tomorrow or forget it... the end.

Forget it.

[Texas Snowman]

I for one am glad that severe weather may be difficult to come by later today. I have an aversion for big hail and tornadoes anywhere near my home.

Meanwhile, the great run of wet weather continues. The Austin College online weather station (just west of Sherman) has recorded 6.33 inches of rain this month in Grayson County. And more is on the way.

[gboudx]

Same. Roof deductibles are high, and I like that money sitting in my investment account.

[TheProfessor]

Convection continues to form, I don't think we will see severe weather today. I wonder if DFW will be downgraded to a slight risk at 17:30z

[Texas Snowman]

Convection continues to form, I don't think we will see severe weather today. I wonder if DFW will be downgraded to a slight risk at 17:30z

Just imagine if this was back in late February!

[Ntxw]

Convection continues to form, I don't think we will see severe weather today. I wonder if DFW will be downgraded to a slight risk at 17:30z

Just imagine if this was back in late February!

Ah but it did! Similar pattern late Feb and early March gave us a couple of snowstorms! Anyway drought map updated yesterday and it continues to improve. The mega drought that began 7 years ago is coming to an end.

[TheProfessor]

And hopefully this pattern continues into May to help keep us from dipping back into the drought during summer.

[Texas Snowman]

Convection continues to form, I don't think we will see severe weather today. I wonder if DFW will be downgraded to a slight risk at 17:30z

Just imagine if this was back in late February!

Ah but it did! Similar pattern late Feb and early March gave us a couple of snowstorms! Anyway drought map updated yesterday and it continues to improve. The mega drought that began 7 years ago is coming to an end.

You know, I've always found it interesting that Lake Texoma reached it's lowest point ever (599.6 feet above sea level in early 1957) and went over the emergency spillway for the first time ever (643-feet above sea level) all in the same year as that infamous drought finally broke.

I guess Harold Taft was right years ago when he quipped "In Texas, the next drought begins as soon as the last flood has ended."

[Tireman4]

Convection continues to form, I don't think we will see severe weather today. I wonder if DFW will be downgraded to a slight risk at 17:30z

Just imagine if this was back in late February!

Ah but it did! Similar pattern late Feb and early March gave us a couple of snowstorms! Anyway drought map updated yesterday and it continues to improve. The mega drought that began 7 years ago is coming to an end.

Now if we can work on California...

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: And hopefully this pattern continues into May to help keep us from dipping back into the drought during summer.

It will continue. I spent some time looking at some drought information from a historical perspective. Despite what we think the summer season is a dry season, being dry then doesnt influence quite as much as spring and fall. When you get less rain then, thats when the cycle then drags on and its tough to make up deficits. The lakes are particularly vulnerable during these seasons. La Ninas usually kickstarts these cycles. While years like 2007 is a nina and was wet early on, that was likely residual effects of the previous winter's Nino. That big Nina strengthened later in 2007 and deficits began fall of that year kickstarted our recent longterm drought. Texas Snowman's quote just now fits.

[SouthernMet]

Convection continues to form, I don't think we will see severe weather today. I wonder if DFW will be downgraded to a slight risk at 17:30z

Not gonna happen, different dynamics are at play today.

[TheProfessor]

maybe but the HRRR seems to be trending towards a MCS later today instead of a discrete cells for DFW, that would likely lower the Tornado threat if it happened.

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX. WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR. THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

[SouthernMet]

Yup... Tornado Watch coming soon for North & Central tx.

[TheProfessor]

We've gotten a lot of rain today, if we do end up getting super cells or an mcs I wouldn't be surprised if flash flood warnings were issued.

[TheProfessor]

Right on queue lol

Flash Flood Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC121-497-241930-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0009.150424T1628Z-150424T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 1127 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PLANO...CARROLLTON...FRISCO...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...SOUTHLAKE...CORINTH...HIGHLAND VILLAGE...TROPHY
CLUB...LAKE DALLAS...SANGER...LAKE LEWISVILLE...BRIAR...LITTLE
ELM...ROANOKE...PECAN ACRES...KRUM AND PILOT POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 9704 3340 9684 3300 9685 3300 9733
3299 9720 3299 9726 3300 9763 3325 9739
3343 9738