2015 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Models have backed off in developing Noul...

The calm before the storms?

Yeah.

Like 1997, 1991, 2004 and 1992. Very active and high ACE seasons which all had an early season storm, transition to quiet then explode during the SW monsoon and peak during September to November. Then they all had at least FOUR very-long tracking super typhoons (Keith/Paka/Joan/Isa, Walt/Mireille/Seth/Yuri, Sudal/Dianmu/Chaba/Songda and Kent/Omar/Yvette/Gay) and something we have not seen in over a decade.

[euro6208]

NWS on current situation in the area with hints of a developing circulation...

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 110804
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
604 PM CHST SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GUAM FORECAST
ZONES...ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN ZONES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEAR LINE OSCILLATING SOUTHWARD OVER
GUAM WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHEAR LINE WILL
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE GUAM FORECAST ZONES TONIGHT...SO AM CARRYING
SCATTERED POPS FOR THESE ZONES FOR THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD.
BEYOND TONIGHT...BOTH MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHEAR
LINE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT TREND OF THINNING OUT SLOWLY OVER
TIME. MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SLOW
DISSIPATION OF THE SHEAR LINE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DRIER
TRADE- WIND REGIME APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING FOR LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO
7 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SMALL
SECONDARY 2 FOOT NORTH SWELL IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONCERT WITH THE PREVALENT TRADE-WIND WAVES AND SWELL. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE MARINE GRIDS AS TRADE-WIND ENERGY INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THE IPAN BUOY. NORTH SWELL ARE BLOCKED AT THE IPAN
BUOY...SO RELIED ON INITIAL TABULAR GUIDANCE FROM THE WAVE WATCH
MODEL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MAJURO TONIGHT.
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL AGAIN GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MAJURO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF POHNPEI. CONVERGENCE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TONIGHT. AS THE
TROUGH IS CLOSEST TO POHNPEI...ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE TROUGH THAT WAS TO THE WEST OF POHNPEI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONVERGENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND PRODUCE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WENO MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW MODELS PREDICT THAT THIS SAME TROUGH MAY DEVELOP INTO A
WEAK CIRCULATION. THE GFS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION PASSING BETWEEN
KOROR AND YAP TUESDAY. NOT CERTAIN IF THE CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP
BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS DEPICTED
IN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER YAP TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
KOROR PALAU.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HAISHEN WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF KOROR THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED ACROSS
YAP STATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

A few of the models hinting of Noul last half of this month and looks like another dateline storm...

[euro6208]

Moderate chance of formation for the far eastern part of the WPAC likely due to to MJO and Kelvin wave...

Only a few models sees development for now. The most robust is CMC which depicts a near Typhoon Noul just east of the Marianas but GFS and EURO barely shows anything...

[Steve820]

El Niño Years ACE Comparison

(1970 onwards)

So 2015 is ahead of every el nino years

On Maue's site, it's listed as 48.58 for this year now...

So, this season could get extremely active! Very scary, indeed. Hopefully we don't get a really devastating storm this year that would compare to Haiyan in 2013. Even if that happens, I'm still all like for this year's NHem seasons!

[euro6208]

CMC even deeper on Noul bottoming it out to 986 mb...GFS and NAVGEM keeps it only as a TD, weak TS. EURO doesn't develop it...

[euro6208]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117184

Invest 90W

A surprise invest this is...

[euro6208]

Models showing a plethora of organized disturbances but doesn't do much with a majority of them...

GFS latching onto another TD/TS east of the Marianas come last week of this month...

WWB/KW/MJO will help increase activity...

[euro6208]

GFS showing Noul recurving east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

Impressive looking circulation with decreasing shear over it and abundant moisture.



Ventilation is already superb...

In the near term, only NAVGEM and CMC develop this into a significant TC with impacts to Eastern Micronesia...

[euro6208]

If this does develop, it'll be the 5th TC to develop beyond 155E this year in the so called el nino box classic signature of El nino...

It's going to be an interesting year if this matches up with 1997...



*Doesn't include 2002,2004,2006,2009, and 2014...

[cycloneye]

Invest 91W is up

[euro6208]

With an active MJO and Kelvin Wave coming, models are confused...

GFS and EURO doesn't develop anything significant...

NAVGEM and CMC agrees on continued developed of strong disturbances...

[euro6208]

00Z showing Noul next month...

Other models also showing a very active weather pattern...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake, from twitter

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · Apr 21
The march toward a big #ElNino ? Another notable wly wind burst fcst which appears well-related to the anomalous SSTs

[Yellow Evan]

With an active MJO and Kelvin Wave coming, models are confused...

GFS and EURO doesn't develop anything significant...

NAVGEM and CMC agrees on continued developed of strong disturbances...

MJO is weak right now. and well in the dead center.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM and CMC now agreeing with GFS on developing Noul...

[euro6208]

06Z even more bullish and the Marianas under the gun yet again!

Formation



Direct Hit



Peak

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Guys, WPAC season poll is running. Hope you participate.

2015 WPAC typhoon season numbers poll is up

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF now showing a full blown TS long range