Predict the EPAC hurricane numbers for 2015!

[CaliforniaResident]

Predict the number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific for the 2015 season:

33/22/11......and one landfall in a place where you least expect it to happen...

[Hurricaneman]

21\11\8

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Predict the number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific for the 2015 season:

33/22/11......and one landfall in a place where you least expect it to happen...

the hell?

Mine would be 21/16/9

Hurricane landfall near Jalisco and/or Baja Sur

[euro6208]

How about turning this thread for the whole pacific basin?

EPAC - 23/12/6

CPAC - 7/4/2

WPAC is currently at 5/3/2 as we enter May...

29/16/12

[Yellow Evan]

I'd personally merge this with the seasonal thread. Anyhow, I said 23-10-5 a few weeks back.

But there's no way we get a 33 storm season. The troposphere isn't thick enough.

[talkon]

I will go with 25/14/9, just to see TS Alpha.

[cycloneye]

23/13/9.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Predict the number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific for the 2015 season:

33/22/11......and one landfall in a place where you least expect it to happen...

For that, you'd need a more resilient/thicker troposphere for clouds, and overwhelmingly favorable atmospheric conditions for development. That would be impossible since that is currently not the case now. But, there is currently a weak to moderate Niño going on (later may intensify to strong) which may be very favorable, but not supercalifragilistically favorable to support that level of activity.

[Kingarabian]

Considering the fact that in these past 2 years we've seen storms track further North/NE of Mexico, and models sometimes depicting a SoCal landfall, I think this could be the year for a California hurricane IF and IF this El-Nino rivals 1997.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Predict the number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific for the 2015 season:

33/22/11......and one landfall in a place where you least expect it to happen...

For that, you'd need a more resilient/thicker troposphere for clouds, and overwhelmingly favorable atmospheric conditions for development. That would be impossible since that is currently not the case now. But, there is currently a weak to moderate Niño going on (later may intensify to strong) which may be very favorable, but not supercalifragilistically favorable to support that level of activity.

You;d need an 100% reversal in trade wind pattern, along with a thicker troposphere so more warm air can rise.

[Yellow Evan]

Considering the fact that in these past 2 years we've seen storms track further North/NE of Mexico, and models sometimes depicting a SoCal landfall, I think this could be the year for a California hurricane IF and IF this El-Nino rivals 1997.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Unless a storm was moving so quickly, the SST gradient in that part of the world is so sharp that gives any storm 0% chance of making it. IF this El Nino rivals 1997l, then yes it may be doable. IT's also worth pointint out thyeat 1939 was during a period of record +PDO levels like 2014/15. Still have my doubts.

It's one thing to strike San Ignacio or even the order between Baja California Sur and Norte. It's another to strike Southern California or even Mexcali. Anything north of there becomes tough. What people don't realize that difference between 28C and 24C is as huge as the difference between 24 nd 20C, which are the SSt's around 30+ miles offshore Southern California (STT's near the beaches are slightly warmer, thanks to offshore barrier island affecting the currents).

[Kingarabian]

Considering the fact that in these past 2 years we've seen storms track further North/NE of Mexico, and models sometimes depicting a SoCal landfall, I think this could be the year for a California hurricane IF and IF this El-Nino rivals 1997.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Unless a storm was moving so quickly, the SST gradient in that part of the world is so sharp that gives any storm 0% chance of making it. IF this El Nino rivals 1997l, then yes it may be doable. IT's also worth pointint out thyeat 1939 was during a period of record +PDO levels like 2014/15. Still have my doubts.

It's one thing to strike San Ignacio or even the order between Baja California Sur and Norte. It's another to strike Southern California or even Mexcali. Anything north of there becomes tough. What people don't realize that difference between 28C and 24C is as huge as the difference between 24 nd 20C, which are the SSt's around 30+ miles offshore Southern California (STT's near the beaches are slightly warmer, thanks to offshore barrier island affecting the currents).

I'm thinking a MH quickly skirting Mexico to the East while it quickly accelerates. Shear needs to be near zero. May reach Cali as a TS.

[Yellow Evan]

Considering the fact that in these past 2 years we've seen storms track further North/NE of Mexico, and models sometimes depicting a SoCal landfall, I think this could be the year for a California hurricane IF and IF this El-Nino rivals 1997.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Unless a storm was moving so quickly, the SST gradient in that part of the world is so sharp that gives any storm 0% chance of making it. IF this El Nino rivals 1997l, then yes it may be doable. IT's also worth pointint out thyeat 1939 was during a period of record +PDO levels like 2014/15. Still have my doubts.

It's one thing to strike San Ignacio or even the order between Baja California Sur and Norte. It's another to strike Southern California or even Mexcali. Anything north of there becomes tough. What people don't realize that difference between 28C and 24C is as huge as the difference between 24 nd 20C, which are the SSt's around 30+ miles offshore Southern California (STT's near the beaches are slightly warmer, thanks to offshore barrier island affecting the currents).

I'm thinking a MH quickly skirting Mexico to the East while it quickly accelerates. Shear needs to be near zero. May reach Cali as a TS.

It would need to turn north, but I guess that's possible. Not too unlike Doreen 77, which was in the 2nd year of a +PDO era.

[Dean_175]

Why are you expecting this season to produce 6 more storms than the record number? Sure, we have an el nino and a +PDO , but other than that- I don't see any reason to expect that amount of activity.

I'm going to say : 21/11/7




-Posts by Dean_175 are not official forecasts and should not be used as such.

[Yellow Evan]

Why are you expecting this season to produce 6 more storms than the record number? Sure, we have an el nino and a +PDO , but other than that- I don't see any reason to expect that amount of activity.

I'm going to say : 21/11/7




-Posts by Dean_175 are not official forecasts and should not be used as such.

Do you have any reason to not expect record activity? I'm not talking about 33 storms, but I could def see mid to upper 20's.

21//1/7 isn't too unreasonable IMO.

[CaliforniaResident]

I also wonder how many storms there were in the EPAC in 1939 for one to take that turn into CA.
It might have been a 30/20/10 season. Remember that people have only been have been keeping track of the EPAC numbers since the 1970s (since the vast majority are fishes anyway) so about 40 years or so, who knows what might have happened before then?

[Yellow Evan]

I also wonder how many storms there were in the EPAC in 1939 for one to take that turn into CA.
It might have been a 30/20/10 season. Remember that people have only been have been keeping track of the EPAC numbers since the 1970s (since the vast majority are fishes anyway) so about 40 years or so, who knows what might have happened before then?

1939 is an interesting case due to the record PDO. However, I'm not going to give it the benefit of the doubt and assume they were 30+ systems.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

25/16/9

[CrazyC83]

28/18/10

Including CPAC: 32/20/11

[Hurricane Jed]

20/12/7