Texas Spring-2015

[SouthernMet]

Very powerful storm west of san antonio.

[Brent]

EF0 tornado in Ellis County, otherwise straight line winds:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/FWD/PNSFWD

[Tireman4]

Houston and surrounding areas got pounded this morning. My goodness.

[Brent]

NAM showing another line for DFW tomorrow night:



and SPC opens with a 5% tornado for all of the metro and west:

[horselattitudesfarm]

Lavon is now .32 feet above full pool!

[SouthernMet]

SPC upgrades to an enhanced risk for DFW & Austin, 10% tornado risk for I-35 corridor from Fort Worth/Decatur to Georgetown, 30% wind risk for Austin, 30% hatched hail for DFW & they said they will consider an upgrade to a moderate risk on the next outlook.

[aggiecutter]

[TheProfessor]

People always talk about not wanting to see Jim Cantore, but during tornado season you don't want to see Reed. Heck his first storm chase was May 3rd 1999.

[Shoshana]

Anyone know the approximate timing of today's possibly severe storms?


Ahhh nevermind, NWS Austin just posted

[Brent]

MODERATE RISK!



IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY OR ALONG ITS SRN
FLANK...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ENCOURAGED BY THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM SWRN TX WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX. LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

[SouthernMet]

First Moderate Risk of the season issued by the SPC, from Belton-Weatherford, this includes Dallas & Fort Worth.

Also, remember there will be 2 rounds of severe storms.

[Texas Snowman]

:eek:

MODERATE RISK!



IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY OR ALONG ITS SRN
FLANK...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ENCOURAGED BY THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM SWRN TX WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX. LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

Not what I was hoping to see when we got out of church. Today has a very different feel to it. Hardly a cloud in the sky along the Red River and temps pushing into the 80s.

Most of the really rough stuff appears to be targeting DFW, Waco and Austin. Lots of people potentially in harm's way. Keep an eye to the sky.

Side note - it was one year ago tomorrow that the big supercell and accompanying EF-4 went through Mayflower and Vilonia Arkansas and killed 16 people. And of course, no one will ever forget what happened four years ago tomorrow.

[Brent]

45% hatched hail!!!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

FWIW, today has the potential to be pretty busy (and tomorrow should feature some activity as well), so I have started a separate thread.

Link

[TheProfessor]

April 26th is an infamous Tornado Day all together, lets hope it doesn't continue today.

[Ntxw]

I just don't want the big hail. After going through the back to back hail storms and dealing with insurance back in 2012 scarred for life. it is not a fun experience after you go through it once.

[Shoshana]

I just don't want the big hail. After going through the back to back hail storms and dealing with insurance back in 2012 scarred for life. it is not a fun experience after you go through it once.

Our neighborhood had roof destroying hail in 2003, 2008 and 2013. I would be happy to never see large hail again in my lifetime. I am hopeful we can make it to 2018...

[TheProfessor]

I just don't want the big hail. After going through the back to back hail storms and dealing with insurance back in 2012 scarred for life. it is not a fun experience after you go through it once.

And it looks like Storm Movement today will make it to where you would get both the Hail Core and the tornado if one were to develop. Steve McCauley said the storms will be moving North Northeast.

[TheProfessor]

Thank goodness the cap hasn't broke yet, these storms our riding above it right now, otherwise we would likely have some intense storms already forming.

[Brent]

Holy crap

AFTER 00Z...THE VERY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS A VERY WELL ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP NEAR CHILDRESS...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL
MASS FIELDS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED...AND MAY POSE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SQUALL LINE
DOES INDEED ORGANIZE...IT MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH AND PRODUCE
ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.