Texas Spring-2015

[Ntxw]

Holy crap

ENOUGH STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO QUALIFY AS A DERECHO BY THE
TIME IT EXITS THE CWA TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. [/b]

May be why SPC had the confidence to go with moderate for severe weather. it includes the metroplex



Tornado watch issued for areas out west. The rest of North Texas will probably get one not too long from now, probably with stronger wording.

[Brent]

The hail is actually what qualified the moderate(45% hatched)... wind is unhatched 30% and pretty much from DFW southeast, so we'll see

They also say this:

ASSUMING THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY
REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END DAMAGING WINDS. REGARDLESS...
WIND DAMAGE WOULD STILL BE LIKELY AS THIS SQUALL LIKE WOULD
PROBABLY BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED.

[Texas Snowman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.


...MEAD

[TheProfessor]

looks like a couple of the storms might be heading towards the metro area, hopefully the cap either weakens them or they go above the cap.

[Brent]

HRRR hinting at supercells in the metroplex after 10pm and as we approach the midnight hour... Don't really see much of a line

[TheProfessor]

That Storm south of Abilene has me worried, I'm watching it live, it has a large wall cloud.

[Texas Snowman]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

TXC049-059-083-262015-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150426T2015Z/
COLEMAN TX-CALLAHAN TX-BROWN TX-
245 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWN...
SOUTHEASTERN CALLAHAN AND NORTHEASTERN COLEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

AT 243 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BURKETT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CROSS PLAINS AND CROSS CUT AROUND 305 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 9913 3198 9939 3229 9936 3232 9912
3216 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 252DEG 19KT 3208 9927

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

[TheProfessor]

It's rain wrapped too.

[Texas Snowman]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC253-417-262030-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0014.150426T1943Z-150426T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
243 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 240 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AVOCA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LUEDERS AROUND 255 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BIG COUNTRY BAPTIST ASSEMBLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 9937 3276 9976 3289 9975 3296 9957
3296 9938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 256DEG 15KT 3282 9970

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$


JOHNSON

[Ntxw]

Eastland folks needs to be moving

[Texas Snowman]

The one north of Abilene appears to be headed in general direction of the northern Metroplex.

The one southeast of Abilene appears to be headed in general direction of southern Metroplex. It's a bit out in front of the other one, wonder if it will cutoff moisture/inflow?

[Texas Snowman]

Cross Cut, May and Rising Star had better be taking tornado precautions.

[Texas Snowman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS. WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE. THIS PROCESS
ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE. AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR. EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.

SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119. TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015


ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

[Texas Snowman]

DPS Abilene reports that emergency manager reported a tornado on the ground at 2:51 p.m. near Burkett.

[TheProfessor]

I'm going to clean out my Laundry room in case that storm North of Abilene keeps moving east.

[Texas Snowman]

Both of those tornadic storms have impressive hooks on radar. Very reminiscent of the radar representation of the Mayflower/Vilonia Arkansas tornado last year (April 27, 2014). It was an F4.

[Ntxw]

Wow look at the large CAPE values. 3000-4000J/kg. We are sitting ducks, if the conditions continue to improve (for severe weather) if storm mode is discrete.

[Texas Snowman]

"@allaccesswx - 4.5" diameter hail (Softballs) was reported at 3:01 PM CDT 11 NE of Lueders, #TXwx. Storm moving east. #severe #wx - Jim"

[Texas Snowman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 261954Z - 262200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO HAVE FORMED OVER WRN PORTIONS WW AND WILL MOVE
ENEWD TO NEWD ACROSS WW AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERED/SMALL-MCS MODE IS PSBL.
ADDITIONAL SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM SRN PORTIONS WW INTO ERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU/WRN HILL COUNTRY. CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL NEW WW THERE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE INTERSECTING
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SWRN CORNER OF COTTLE
COUNTY...AND EXTENDING SWD BETWEEN SNK-SWW TO NEAR SOA. FRONT
EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN OK NEAR OR JUST N OF NRN EDGE OF WW.
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN COTTLE COUNTY SSEWD TO NEAR JCT. DRYLINE
SHOULD CONTINUE MIXING EWD TO POSITION NEAR CONFLUENCE LINE BEFORE
STALLING LATE THIS AFTN...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF PAC COLD FRONT NOW
OVER WRN PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS DRAWN FROM WILLIAMSON COUNTY NWWD INTO SUPERCELL
APCHG BROWN/CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE...AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER NW TOWARD
TOWARD SUPERCELL APCHG NRN SHACKLEFORD COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING NEWD ABOUT 15-20 KT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SUPERCELLS TO HAVE
LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH THIS BOUNDARY. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAY ENHANCE MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH/TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE STORMS OR ANY OTHERS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH IT.

SMALL POCKET OF STG SFC DRYING WAS EVIDENT AT BKD AND TO LESSER
EXTENT RPH...LIKELY RELATED TO DOWNDRAFTS FROM MIDLEVEL CONVECTION.
THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINED INTO INFLOW OF STORMS TO ITS W IN ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MESSIER STRUCTURES.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SW OF EXISTING
CONVECTION ALONG BLENDING DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE. AS THIS
OCCURS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING S OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL INCREASE. POTENTIAL THEREFORE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR SRN EDGE OF
WW AND SWD THROUGH HILL COUNTRY. ANY SUCH CONVECTION MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

--- NOTE ---
RAP MODEL HAS HAD A SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/OVER-MIXING PROBLEM OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK ALL DAY LONG. THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY
AFFECTING MOISTURE FIELDS AND AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF PARAMETERS
DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE. USE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE PROGS FROM
RAP...RAP-DEPENDENT HRRR...AND SPC/SFCOA FIELDS...WITH GREAT
CAUTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2015


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 30610013 33120036 33960044 34219973 34149849 33849781
32189782 30779870 30419962 30610013

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS - baseball sized hail near Rising Star at 3:13 p.m.