Texas Spring-2015

[aggiecutter]

Some interesting footage shot the other night on I-35, just south of the DFW Metroplex:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0nN_7gh ... e=youtu.be

[Tireman4]

Oh. My. Gosh. This is what Spring should be. Heck, this is what I wished Summer could be. In August. (Here comes Wxman 57 to rain on my parade). Gosh, it is amazing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Feels great!

[Ralph's Weather]

Today will set a daily record low max temp for Tyler. The current record is 63 and we were at 60 at midnight and only 57 now with rain, doubt we get back to above 60.

[Texas Snowman]

Oh. My. Gosh. This is what Spring should be. Heck, this is what I wished Summer could be. In August. (Here comes Wxman 57 to rain on my parade). Gosh, it is amazing.

He has been noticeably absent in recent days from the forum. Guess he's installing windshield wipers on his bike.

Or getting ready for hurricane season.

[Texas Snowman]

Today will set a daily record low max temp for Tyler. The current record is 63 and we were at 60 at midnight and only 57 now with rain, doubt we get back to above 60.

North Texas is certainly cool and damp today, although the rain/drizzle has moved out of the Denison area.

Looks like middle 40s tonight for a low, probably the coolest overnight period we'll have until late September or October.

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS damage survey of the microburst in Kaufman County last night:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

000
NOUS44 KFWD 282105
PNSFWD
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-290915-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/27/2015 MICROBURST..

.OVERVIEW...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH KAUFMAN COUNTY
LAST EVENING...PRODUCING A SMALL...BUT POTENT MICROBURST OVER THE CITY
OF KAUFMAN. SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED OR HAD LARGE LIMBS REMOVED. IN
SEVERAL INSTANCES...LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN OVER ONTO HOMES AND/OR
VEHICLES. FROM THE OBSERVED DAMAGE PATTERN...THE MICROBURST APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF US175...WITH DAMAGE PUSHED NORTH AND
EAST...WHILE SOUTH OF THE MICROBURST CENTER...THE DAMAGE WAS PUSHED
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

.KAUFMAN MICROBURST...

PEAK WIND /E/: 65 - 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 2 MILES
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: APR 27 2015
START TIME: 8:17 PM CDT
START LOCATION: KAUFMAN

END DATE: APR 27 2015
END TIME: 8:20 PM CDT
END LOCATION: KAUFMAN

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$

FOX / BRADSHAW

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS tornado survey map from Sunday. Total count now is 11 tornadoes, all rated as EF-0.

-----
"A NWS survey team surveyed damage caused by several tornadoes in North Texas on Sunday, April 26th. The team confirmed 11 tornadoes caused damage from Comanche County to Johnson County. All of these tornadoes have been given a preliminary rating of EF-0. Additional areas of damage will be investigated in the next few days and the total number may change. For additional information about these tornadoes, visit our homepage."

[Brent]

I'm loling at the fact that microburst was as strong as all the EF0's.

What a strange event.

Sooooo.... when's the next one?

[Texas Snowman]

We had a strong microburst in Denison several years ago in the spring. It knocked a large tree over in my front yard and destroyed my wife's Suburban. It did a lot - and I mean a LOT - of damage around the west side of Denison.

Almost as much damage as the Dec. 2008 EF-2 tornado did here, which wiped out the bowling alley and a half-dozen homes as it hopscotched it's way through Denison.

I'm glad of two things from the other night. One, that the tornadoes were weak and two, that they did not touch down in populated areas around DFW.

The latter is what has saved Texas' proverbial bacon on many, many different occasions.

[Ntxw]

We had a strong microburst in Denison several years ago in the spring. It knocked a large tree over in my front yard and destroyed my wife's Suburban. It did a lot - and I mean a LOT - of damage around the west side of Denison.

Almost as much damage as the Dec. 2008 EF-2 tornado did here, which wiped out the bowling alley and a half-dozen homes as it hopscotched it's way through Denison.

I'm glad of two things from the other night. One, that the tornadoes were weak and two, that they did not touch down in populated areas around DFW.

The latter is what has saved Texas' proverbial bacon on many, many different occasions.

Remember the EF scale is for damage and not wind. I'm sure had the tornado east of Rio Vista hit more densely populated areas it would've been rated higher. A lot of open fields and barns out there, can't really rate if there's nothing built strong to judge. I mean straight line winds can easily be rated ef1 at least. Just think El Reno, that was officially EF3 because the structures it hit weren't built strong to measure, who of us would believe it was only an EF3?

[Ntxw]

Big post today.

DFW broke it's coolest high temp for the date yesterday.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT DFW AIRPORT WAS 59 DEGREES. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR APRIL 28TH OF 61 DEGREES SET
IN 1932.


Through the weekend the weather will be tranquil, enjoy it. Haven't had a long stretch of sunny days for quite some time but don't think that is it. In motion are much bigger things in the Pacific Ocean. A substantial westerly wind burst event is about to occur, thus leading to the idea the El Nino will in fact get much stronger. If you understand the mechanism of ENSO this is a pretty clear line of thought.

With the eastern Pacific basin rain rates are increasing, the oceanic Kelvin wave is upwelling and convection is firing below us. This is our power source for heavy rain later week 1 and week 2 of May. Models are slowly latching on and the dry maps of the HPC are being replaced slowly with wetter ones. You can see the rainfall cluster slowly move across the globe and I circled the forecast area of it reaching our longitude.



Analogs suggest often in periods like this, May opens up the floodgates and the pattern persists for months. We'll see, certainly haven't seen this kind of progression in a while.

[weatherdude1108]

Big post today.

DFW broke it's coolest high temp for the date yesterday.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
146 AM CDT WED APR 29 2015

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY AT DFW AIRPORT WAS 59 DEGREES. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR APRIL 28TH OF 61 DEGREES SET
IN 1932.


Through the weekend the weather will be tranquil, enjoy it. Haven't had a long stretch of sunny days for quite some time but don't think that is it. In motion are much bigger things in the Pacific Ocean. A substantial westerly wind burst event is about to occur, thus leading to the idea the El Nino will in fact get much stronger. If you understand the mechanism of ENSO this is a pretty clear line of thought.

With the eastern Pacific basin rain rates are increasing, the oceanic Kelvin wave is upwelling and convection is firing below us. This is our power source for heavy rain later week 1 and week 2 of May. Models are slowly latching on and the dry maps of the HPC are being replaced slowly with wetter ones. You can see the rainfall cluster slowly move across the globe and I circled the forecast area of it reaching our longitude.



Analogs suggest often in periods like this, May opens up the floodgates and the pattern persists for months. We'll see, certainly haven't seen this kind of progression in a while.

Me likey!

We were 48 at the house this morning.

We only have 52 feet to go before Mansfield Dam (Lake Travis) hits its flood pool.

http://floodstatus.lcra.org/

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose shared some encouraging news In the rain department.

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
May Weather Outlook Shaping Up Wet and Mild
Thursday, April 30, 2015 6:31 PM
​
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center issued an updated outlook for the month of May Thursday afternoon. The May outlook calls for above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures.

According to CPC forecasters, this wet and somewhat mild forecast is correlated with historical years that contained a weak to moderate El Nino, which showed similar conditions across the southern US.

This wet pattern may begin next week when a series of low pressure troughs begin moving into Texas out of the southwestern US. Today's forecast solutions indicate the chance for rain will begin to increase next Tuesday and continue through late week and into next weekend as well. It appears some significant totals of rain will be possible over this period. We may see some stormy weather as well.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Texas Snowman]

Steve McCauley thinks next week's system goes negative tilt. As per his Facebook update tonight:

"
A weak upper-level disturbance is off the coast of California and will be dropping south over the next couple of days before swinging into the SW United States late in the weekend. As it moves into northern Mexico, it will begin to lean back and go NEGATIVE TILT and therefore undergo rapid intensification by early next week.

A negative tilt is the strongest orientation an upper-level disturbance can have and often results in total obliteration of any cap that may be in place over Texas at the time. A disturbance will go NT when it comes under the influence of another strong upper-level disturbance upwind from itself, and we should see that in the form of a fast moving upper-level Low coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. This in combination with a strong dryline in west Texas should permit explosive thunderstorm development that will move into western portions of north Texas by Tuesday night.


This is what the math indicates at this time. Since both disturbances are still out to sea and cannot be completely sampled by our weather observation network, I am basing this forecast on how the disturbances look on satellite imagery rather than actual data collected by a weather balloon.

Thus, with both disturbances out to sea, this outlook is subject to receive some modifications, but this is the best guess at this time.

Until then, enjoy the calm!"

[Tireman4]

The most amazing weather this week. I wish it would last forever. My gracious. No stress on my body ( well, inside when I bike and run..LOL) and that is a positive. This weekend will be amazing.

[TheProfessor]

I disagree with you about the weather being amazing this week. But everyone likes different types of weather.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: I disagree with you about the weather being amazing this week. But everyone likes different types of weather.

Yep, makes the world go around...

[Brent]

More heavy rain being progged in N TX mostly in the mid week timeframe. Severe wx potential doesn't seem too big but there is a chance for at least some isolated event.

[Ntxw]

That will eat up the rest of the I-35 corridor. NW Texas will be left where it's needed most. Flow the rest of May will be consistent, High pressure ridge over the eastern US, with gulf return flow into Texas. ULL coming out of the southern branch from the baja, the persistent that has been occurring this spring.