2015 EPAC Season

#101 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Apr 27, 2015 4:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:FARTHER SOUTH...THE TROPICAL EPAC IS STARTING TO
TRANSITION TO ITS LATE SPRING/SUMMER PATTERN...WITH SIGNIFICANT
MID LATITUDE INFLUENCES. WHAT WAS A COHERENT ITCZ IS BREAKING
DOWN INTO A LARGE AREA OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING ALONG
ROUGHLY 10N...ALTHOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK AND INCONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING FROM THE NW...PROVIDING
SUPPORT TO A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AROUND
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N116W. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS W...AND AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT
EAST. BY THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
ANOTHER 1007 MB LOW PRES SE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LIKELY
INFLUENCED BY THE SAME MID/UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA
CURRENTLY.

A few GFS ensembles do deepen this slightly, but not even the CMC shows it. I guess it bears watching though.

Wonder why the models are quiet.

That area Cycloneye showed is where the GFS was showing development if I'm not mistaken.

That system was suppose to form around May 5-10.

Models are probs quiet due to lack of convergence due to lack of tropical waves. This type of formation is an ITCZ breakdown type.

#102 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Apr 28, 2015 10:38 pm

Even though main GFS is not showing it, the ensembles are very aggressive.

#103 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:03 am

Some ensembles from the GFS show a parade of Tc's of some kind in the next few weeks.

#104 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Some ensembles from the GFS show a parade of Tc's of some kind in the next few weeks.

That was actually the norm last year where we would see TC's sprout randomly and in bunches.

That said though, this area looks of interest.

Wonder if there's anything at the surface.

#105 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:40 pm

A VERY ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND 15N THIS AFTERNOON TO 100W AND MEXICO. A
SERIES OF TROUGHS CAN BEEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD...EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 108-110W FROM THE S END
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 12N108W...AND SHIFTING EWD INTO MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND LIFT OVER THE DOWNSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PRODUCING A
ZONE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF
100W WHERE VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ABOUT THE MONSOON
TROUGH THERE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA WILL REMAIN
VERY UNSTABLE AND ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD FRI AND SAT.

#106 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
That was actually the norm last year where we would see TC's sprout randomly and in bunches.

That said though, this area looks of interest.

Wonder if there's anything at the surface.

http://i.imgur.com/L7eeKj7.jpg

Doubt it. The TWD doesn't mention any surface lows in this area.

#107 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:05 pm

For what it's worth, the 2015 name list:

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

CaliforniaResident · #108 Postby **CaliforniaResident** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:For what it's worth, the 2015 name list:

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

If one of those were to make landfall in Southern California, which would it be? I'm going with Waldo or Zelda based on the position in the alphabet (if one were to strike CA, it would be in October or late in the alphabet) and the vibes I get from the names themselves (Where's WALDO? and Legend of Zelda from the old school Nintendo).

#109 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:48 pm

CaliforniaResident wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:For what it's worth, the 2015 name list:

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

If one of those were to make landfall in Southern California, which would it be? I'm going with Waldo or Zelda based on the position in the alphabet (if one were to strike CA, it would be in October or late in the alphabet) and the vibes I get from the names themselves (Where's WALDO? and Legend of Zelda from the old school Nintendo).

I'd say something like Rick or Terry. Which will probs be in September/October.

#110 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri May 01, 2015 12:17 am

How in the world was Rick not retired?

#111 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri May 01, 2015 7:29 am

Kingarabian wrote:How in the world was Rick not retired?

Which Rick?

Rick in 2009 did very minor damage. Remember, it's only a TS at landfall as it weakend due to 30 knts of shear in an unfavorable direction.

Rick in 1997 was overshadowed by Pauline and there wasn't much damage.

Rick in 1985 was turned down IIRC.

#112 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri May 01, 2015 8:14 am

Main GFs still shows nothing, and really only one ensemble shows anything, but then again, it's struggling forecasting MJO by moving it too fast and it is super early.

#113 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 01, 2015 9:31 am

So no Andres before May 15 it seems.

#114 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri May 01, 2015 9:38 am

cycloneye wrote:So no Andres before May 15 it seems.

I wouldn't rule it out either. You'll sometimes get a surprise storm not shown on the long range in the models. We still have a CCKW coming, but no tropical waves and a weak MJO signal are negative factors.

#115 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri May 01, 2015 11:58 am

Shear looks below normal so far while vertical instability looks decent.

#116 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 02, 2015 10:43 am

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=10&lat2=25&lon1=-130&lon2=-96&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=0&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

SST's highest on record for the month of April 2015. Easily shattering the previous record. Next month though we say a big increase in SST's historically. Will the record SST's carry on to hurricane seaosn?

#117 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 03, 2015 11:43 pm

GFS ensembles hinting at Andres in two weeks. MJO and CCKW are coming.

#118 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 05, 2015 2:00 pm

Week two may get interesting.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

#119 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri May 08, 2015 8:47 pm

Thinking this season may be qualitative, average numbers rather than quantitative/ above average.

#120 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat May 09, 2015 12:08 am

Kingarabian wrote:Thinking this season may be qualitative, average numbers rather than quantitative/ above average.

That usually doesn't happen 2 years in a row.

But with the vertical instability we have now, it's possible.

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