2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
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Just looked at Bastardi's updated April forecast someone mentioned earlier. I think that's pretty on across the board. I'd draw that 50% of ACE 100 miles farther east though and likely go with 7-3-1 or 7-4-1, bulk in the Atlantic with a target zone of the AL Coast over to Eastern NC south of Cape Hatteras. 1957 argues for a potential West Gulf early storm. And the Gulf will be boiling in a couple months. But I'll believe that when I see it. Clearly this is not an official post.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
What JB means is he expects 50% of this season's ACE to occur from SE LA through the state of Florida up the mid-Atlantic coast, extending a couple hundred miles offshore of course. He only expects 25% of the total ACE to come from the MDR which is pretty astonishing and shows how unfavorable things look. He's calling for total ACE to be 65%-80% of normal.
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A little off topic linkage, the past couple of years the tornado season over the US has kind of foretold or given match to the Atlantic season. We are a little past halfway the tornadic season and the message is the same, in terms of quantity is very below normal almost record low.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?
Usually during El Niño years, both the tornadic and hurricane seasons tend to be below normal and quieter than average
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- CFLHurricane
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Re: Re:
ninel conde wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?
the multi-year wnw flow over the eastern half of the nation that cuts off moisture and warmth from the GOM.
Will the upcoming super El Niño be able to dislodge this wnw flow?
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
- Yellow Evan
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Judign by http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html, ATL conditions may be improving slight. The MDR isn't as cold as it was last week, and the Caribbean has warmed slightly as well. Given that at this time of year the TICZ lifts northward. Once the MJO re-establishes itself over the EPAC, all the upward motion and rising air will be focused there.
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- CFLHurricane
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Re: Re:
CFLHurricane wrote:ninel conde wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?
the multi-year wnw flow over the eastern half of the nation that cuts off moisture and warmth from the GOM.
Will the upcoming super El Niño be able to dislodge this wnw flow?
Anybody??? Any takers????
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
Re: Re:
CFLHurricane wrote:ninel conde wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If you dont mind us staying off topic, what is the main culprit of the weak tornado season?
the multi-year wnw flow over the eastern half of the nation that cuts off moisture and warmth from the GOM.
Will the upcoming super El Niño be able to dislodge this wnw flow?
no, enhance it. everything im seeing points to a ripping wnw flow across the eastern half of the nation through cane season and a super low in the nw atlantic, meaning a zilch cane season.
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- Hurricaneman
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as of right now I think if this current flow of disturbences could be a precursor of possible tropical development in June but the shear would have to disappear before this idea would come to fruition
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- gatorcane
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It's interesting to note the global models are already trying to spin up something over the Bahamas next week where those above normal SSTs are it is only Apr 27th. South Florida saw impressive record highs yesterday with some areas hitting 100F degrees. That is unheard of here even in the heart of summer.
Given we are only in late April and might see a tropical system spin up next week, not sure if this is a harbinger for the rest of this season?
Given we are only in late April and might see a tropical system spin up next week, not sure if this is a harbinger for the rest of this season?
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- Hurricaneman
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Something caught my eye and I do hope its some kind of error but the CFSv2 seems to be showing below normal shear in the MDR across to the GOM and the Caribbean during the heart of hurricane season despite a low end strong El Nino
PS: this would give creedence to Larry Cosgrove's forecast but for all the wrong reasons
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PS: this would give creedence to Larry Cosgrove's forecast but for all the wrong reasons
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re:
Hurricaneman wrote:Something caught my eye and I do hope its some kind of error but the CFSv2 seems to be showing below normal shear in the MDR across to the GOM and the Caribbean during the heart of hurricane season despite a low end strong El Nino
PS: this would give creedence to Larry Cosgrove's forecast but for all the wrong reasons
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
That could be because it's showing an incredibly strong el nino centered much further west than what would be considered typical.
Bastardi showed this graphic on WeatherBell when discussing the CFSv2. Seems rather unlikely.

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- cycloneye
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Re: 2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
For a change the sst's are rising in MDR.But how long will this continues depends on how the NAO does.


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