Texas Spring-2015

[Ntxw]

Looking at latest guidance flow will be slow. Back to back systems parking out west and disturbances going meridional, rain shields will be forming south and slowly moving northwards as LLJ kicks in this week. Ridging to the east will block these systems from passing quickly. These type of set ups train lots of rain that are not very fast moving. I would not be surprised if flood watches are set out next week, in fact I would probably expect them to be. Severe weather is questionable and again day by day but flooding seems like the bigger issue. As the parent system passes by later next week another storm will be slow moving right behind it.

FW has a good discussion

[vbhoutex]

I hope the areas in N/NC/NW/C/WC TX get some more soaking rains that will continue to fill up the aquifers and lakes. SE TX is all above normal on rainfall so we don't need heavy rains, but always need to get the soaking rains to keep us from returning to the drought. Looks like we will get wet late week. Right now and for the last few days our weather has been phenomenal!! Heading out to the tball fields in a while to watch our grand play her last game for the year.

[Brent]

That WPC map now has heavier rain right along I-35...

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

[weatherdude1108]

Hoping we get beneficial rains in lieu of the recent media hype.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
606 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015


...FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DIURNALLY
DRIVEN/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY BENEATH A BROAD
TROUGH CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH
IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINS WITHIN SLOW-MOVING PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INHERITED
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS CARRIED OVER INTO THE
DAY 2 PERIOD.

MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT ARE STILL VARYING IN THE EXACT
AXIS/AMOUNTS. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...THE WPC FORECAST
WAS BASED OFF A GFS/ECMWF/IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-BIAS-CORRECTED
COMPROMISE.

[Brent]

Impressive

[TexasF6]

Most Impressive, You have learned much young one...

Impressive

[TheProfessor]

That's one of those Pre-school drawn maps you've go there.

[Ntxw]

It is well hooked up to convection firing east of the dateline. Subtropical jet alive and well, aimed ready to hose. Drought busting rain.



I'm still surprised FW hasn't yet issued flood watches especially for eastplexers. CPC already have you folks outlined for possible flooding given the rivers and lakes are full there, ground unable to hold much more water.

[Texas Snowman]

Impressive

May the fourth be with you!

And may the fifth and sixth inch rainfall lines be with you too.

And may they fill up your reservoirs!

[Ntxw]

Some crazy flooding going on in West Texas. Just south of Lubbock estimates are showing 8-10" of rain. The storms are crawling at 10mph. Some areas are receiving a year's amount of rainfall in hours. Just to show you how primed the atmosphere is for flooding. Any areas that they sit and train on will get dumped on very quickly lots of pwats.

[Texas Snowman]

Some crazy flooding going on in West Texas. Just south of Lubbock estimates are showing 8-10" of rain. The storms are crawling at 10mph. Just to show you how primed the atmosphere is for flooding. Any areas that they sit and train on will get dumped on very quickly lots of pwats.

Need to get that rain further north to try and make a big dent in Greenbelt...it's 44.05 feet below normal.

[Ntxw]

Some crazy flooding going on in West Texas. Just south of Lubbock estimates are showing 8-10" of rain. The storms are crawling at 10mph. Just to show you how primed the atmosphere is for flooding. Any areas that they sit and train on will get dumped on very quickly lots of pwats.

http://i62.tinypic.com/2lsws2t.png

Need to get that rain further north to try and make a big dent in Greenbelt...it's 44.05 feet below normal.

It's just starting. Wait until the forcing arrives along the I-35 corridor, we'll probably see some wild rainfall totals from Central Oklahoma to Central Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

While I don't want anyone's life or property to be endangered, I hope that some of the West Texas and Panhandle lakes that are still so terribly low (Greenbelt, O.H. Ivie, Amistad, Alan Henry, etc.) can get some good runoff into their watersheds.

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado count for April 26 now at 15.

[Ntxw]

Somebody out there has seen a foot of rain this afternoon. I suspected some floating cars somewhere...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LYNN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1106 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 10 TO
12 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LYNN COUNTY. MANY HIGHWAYS ARE CLOSED IN LYNN COUNTY
INCLUDING US HIGHWAY 87 AND US HIGHWAY 380. THIS FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 PM AND IS BEING REPLACED BY A LARGER
AREAL FLOOD WARNING.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

[TheProfessor]

my goodness if we get storms like that along 35.

[Ntxw]

Continued ridiculous radar estimates between Lubbock and Big Spring. I haven't found any official readings, I think Tahoka, TX was in the 10-12 inch range as of yesterday. Just SSW of Post, TX had nearly 12" per the TTU mesonet. They probably are praying the rain to stop, they were already out of the drought well before the skies opened up.

[weatherdude1108]

Continued ridiculous radar estimates between Lubbock and Big Spring. I haven't found any official readings, I think Tahoka, TX was in the 10-12 inch range as of yesterday. Just SSW of Post, TX had nearly 12" per the TTU mesonet. They probably are praying the rain to stop, they were already out of the drought well before the skies opened up.

That is crazy! I went to school up there in Lubbock. Their streets can't handle that kind of runoff. It is flat and the water can't go anywhere except the man made playa lakes that are scattered throughout the region. Once those fill up, anything goes. Saw a local news story about the rains and a slide show.

http://lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2 ... kyeU.email

http://lubbockonline.com/slideshow/2015 ... ng#slide-1

[gboudx]

Looks like a lot of that water fell in the Brazos and Colorado watersheds. Hopefully there are lakes downstream that can benefit from the excessive runoff.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Lots more to come today.