ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Ntxw
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#5961 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 04, 2015 7:31 pm

Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.

Image
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Re:

#5962 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 04, 2015 8:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.


The CFS seems to have a very strong Nino event that doesn't seem traditional but not Modoki either.

From the 2015 Indicators thread:

Image
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Re: Re:

#5963 Postby Ntxw » Mon May 04, 2015 9:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.


The CFS seems to have a very strong Nino event that doesn't seem traditional but not Modoki either.

From the 2015 Indicators thread:

http://imageshack.com/a/img537/1790/80pQlU.gif


No two ENSO events are the same. They generally have warmest waters spread somewhere else compared another overall; that look is more of a traditional El Nino, with the eastern Basins warmer than the western basins. A true blue modoki would be warm near the dateline and cold off SA. It's not always perfect sometimes a iittle in between. But it looks big enough and warm enough east to couple with a traditional Nino, Unless we start seeing the coast of SA showing cold water.

Typical Traditional
Image

Typical Modoki
Image
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#5964 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue May 05, 2015 12:48 pm

If that pans out, this winter would look pretty similar to this one but wetter?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5965 Postby xironman » Tue May 05, 2015 2:58 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If that pans out, this winter would look pretty similar to this one but wetter?

If it truly panned out everyone east of the Mississippi would torch, like 98 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/tech ... tr9802.pdf, but I would not bet on it.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5966 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue May 05, 2015 3:07 pm

xironman wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If that pans out, this winter would look pretty similar to this one but wetter?

If it truly panned out everyone east of the Mississippi would torch, like 98 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/tech ... tr9802.pdf, but I would not bet on it.


Still a warm pool of water off the pacific coast though.
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#5967 Postby Dean_175 » Tue May 05, 2015 11:09 pm

Ntxw- do you think this WWB is strong enough to increase the chance of a strong el nino this year?
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#5968 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed May 06, 2015 1:48 am

1997 had Isa

This year has Maysak, Noul and GFS & ECMWF show cat 5 Dolphin
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5969 Postby xironman » Wed May 06, 2015 5:24 am

Nice of them to adjust the graph

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Re:

#5970 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 06, 2015 8:22 am

Dean_175 wrote:Ntxw- do you think this WWB is strong enough to increase the chance of a strong el nino this year?


I'd say it does. Very rarely do you get the weekly readings as high as we are this early without one or at the very least borderline moderate-strong almost in every case. The WWB maybe not warm significantly at the surface, however the CFSv2 has done a good job a month in advance in predicting below the surface warm pool movement. It's been calling for a surge of strengthening by June. I was skeptical waiting for the next WWB come May and now that it is happening I'd be a little more confident. This should keep the Nino ~1C or greater for most of the summer.
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#5971 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed May 06, 2015 8:41 am

Impressive warm-up over the eastern regions Niño 3 & 1+2

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Re:

#5972 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 06, 2015 9:15 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:1997 had Isa

This year has Maysak, Noul and GFS & ECMWF show cat 5 Dolphin


Yup usually in a developing nino year, usually the first signs begins in the WPAC and residents feel the onslaught of this event first hand...Strong typhoons in the first half of year promotes more WWB followed by more strong typhoons as depicted by the latest models...This will be a long year for us...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5973 Postby Dean_175 » Thu May 07, 2015 2:48 pm

Looks impressive. Significant warming off South America.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5974 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 07, 2015 3:18 pm

I suspect Typhoon NOUL and soon to be a powerful Typhoon now TD 07W will further cause more west winds to warm things in El Nino areas.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#5975 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 07, 2015 4:41 pm

Dean_175 wrote:Looks impressive. Significant warming off South America.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2015.gif


Doesn't look like a wimpy Nino anymore. Another thing to notice is the cold waters North and South of Australia. East and west still a little warm but this should eventually effect the SOI.
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#5976 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 07, 2015 10:51 pm

We may get a SHEM cyclone in tandem with the WPAC systems soon. What a westerly windburst, El Nino!
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Re:

#5977 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu May 07, 2015 11:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:We may get a SHEM cyclone in tandem with the WPAC systems soon. What a westerly windburst, El Nino!

Big season coming for the WPAC

So does that mean a better chance of significant surface warming?
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#5978 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri May 08, 2015 2:01 am

1997 and 2015. Same degree of warming over eastern Pacific. Of course, other basins are ahead with El Niño.

Image
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#5979 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 08, 2015 8:33 pm

More strong WWB coming

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Re:

#5980 Postby Dean_175 » Fri May 08, 2015 9:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:More strong WWB coming

Image


What about all those strong easterly wind anomalies just to the east of the dateline? Also where can I find this graphic?
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