
ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.


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- Kingarabian
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.
The CFS seems to have a very strong Nino event that doesn't seem traditional but not Modoki either.
From the 2015 Indicators thread:

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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw wrote:Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.
The CFS seems to have a very strong Nino event that doesn't seem traditional but not Modoki either.
From the 2015 Indicators thread:
http://imageshack.com/a/img537/1790/80pQlU.gif
No two ENSO events are the same. They generally have warmest waters spread somewhere else compared another overall; that look is more of a traditional El Nino, with the eastern Basins warmer than the western basins. A true blue modoki would be warm near the dateline and cold off SA. It's not always perfect sometimes a iittle in between. But it looks big enough and warm enough east to couple with a traditional Nino, Unless we start seeing the coast of SA showing cold water.
Typical Traditional

Typical Modoki

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- TeamPlayersBlue
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If that pans out, this winter would look pretty similar to this one but wetter?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If that pans out, this winter would look pretty similar to this one but wetter?
If it truly panned out everyone east of the Mississippi would torch, like 98 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/tech ... tr9802.pdf, but I would not bet on it.
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Re: ENSO Updates
xironman wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:If that pans out, this winter would look pretty similar to this one but wetter?
If it truly panned out everyone east of the Mississippi would torch, like 98 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/tech ... tr9802.pdf, but I would not bet on it.
Still a warm pool of water off the pacific coast though.
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Ntxw- do you think this WWB is strong enough to increase the chance of a strong el nino this year?
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1997 had Isa
This year has Maysak, Noul and GFS & ECMWF show cat 5 Dolphin
This year has Maysak, Noul and GFS & ECMWF show cat 5 Dolphin
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Re:
Dean_175 wrote:Ntxw- do you think this WWB is strong enough to increase the chance of a strong el nino this year?
I'd say it does. Very rarely do you get the weekly readings as high as we are this early without one or at the very least borderline moderate-strong almost in every case. The WWB maybe not warm significantly at the surface, however the CFSv2 has done a good job a month in advance in predicting below the surface warm pool movement. It's been calling for a surge of strengthening by June. I was skeptical waiting for the next WWB come May and now that it is happening I'd be a little more confident. This should keep the Nino ~1C or greater for most of the summer.
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Impressive warm-up over the eastern regions Niño 3 & 1+2


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Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:1997 had Isa
This year has Maysak, Noul and GFS & ECMWF show cat 5 Dolphin
Yup usually in a developing nino year, usually the first signs begins in the WPAC and residents feel the onslaught of this event first hand...Strong typhoons in the first half of year promotes more WWB followed by more strong typhoons as depicted by the latest models...This will be a long year for us...
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Re: ENSO Updates
Looks impressive. Significant warming off South America.


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Re: ENSO Updates
I suspect Typhoon NOUL and soon to be a powerful Typhoon now TD 07W will further cause more west winds to warm things in El Nino areas.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ENSO Updates
Dean_175 wrote:Looks impressive. Significant warming off South America.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 7.2015.gif
Doesn't look like a wimpy Nino anymore. Another thing to notice is the cold waters North and South of Australia. East and west still a little warm but this should eventually effect the SOI.
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We may get a SHEM cyclone in tandem with the WPAC systems soon. What a westerly windburst, El Nino!
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Ntxw wrote:We may get a SHEM cyclone in tandem with the WPAC systems soon. What a westerly windburst, El Nino!
Big season coming for the WPAC
So does that mean a better chance of significant surface warming?
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1997 and 2015. Same degree of warming over eastern Pacific. Of course, other basins are ahead with El Niño.


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More strong WWB coming


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Re:
Ntxw wrote:More strong WWB coming
What about all those strong easterly wind anomalies just to the east of the dateline? Also where can I find this graphic?
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