ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[JonathanBelles]

90L is up on FTP.

Location 265N, 790W
Winds: 25kt
MSLP: 1016 mb

[cycloneye]

Here is the best track so far.

AL, 90, 2015050506, , BEST, 0, 246N, 762W, 20, 1018, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2015050512, , BEST, 0, 249N, 770W, 20, 1018, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2015050518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 778W, 20, 1018, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, SPAWNINVEST, al712015 to al902015,
AL, 90, 2015050600, , BEST, 0, 258N, 785W, 25, 1017, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2015050606, , BEST, 0, 265N, 790W, 25, 1016, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, based on radar presentation, at 7 a.m. the Low is centered just offshore within 50 miles nearly due east of Boca Raton, FL drifting north. The heaviest rain is just offshore with the Low, and to the north and east of the Low as expected with a hybrid system, with some showers just moving ashore the coast of Palm Beach, Martin and St Lucie counties.

[LarryWx]

^This tells me it was likely initialized 100 or so miles too far east. Therefore, one would think it would track somewhat west of the model consensus. Then again, it looks to my eyes like it may actually be currently moving just east of northward. So, if so, the model positions for later today may end up not being far off. Also, with this being a weak system, impacts along the coast would likely still be rather minimal.

[gatorcane]

Saved vis loop GIF below, the system seems to be organizing to me. Very clear spin to it and it is over the warm Gulf stream current so that should help. I see a good chance of this getting named still.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of
Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an
upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the
northwestern Bahamas. The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been cancelled. However, conditions are
expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northward. A
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday,
and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should
monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8
PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Not surprised with recon being cancelled, although the system does look better than I thought it would this morning.

[galaxy401]

Yeah it looks more organized this morning.

I just realized too that the NHC changed the color codes for percent.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Invest 90L is gradually organizing.

[jaguarjace]

90L INVEST 150506 1200 26.8N 79.4W ATL 25 1015

[RL3AO]

In my far from expert opinion, 60% is a bit too low. I'm thinking 80%+ chance we get Ana out of this system. Low should intensify today and then slowly gain subtropical characteristics by Friday.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[LarryWx]

^The 12Z position of 26.8N, 79.4W is well west of the model consensus (by about 100-125 miles or nearly 2 degrees longitude) as of 12Z and is NW of the 6Z position of 26.5N, 79.0W suggesting NW movement as of that time.
Implications? If this were a strong system, this discrepancy would likely have major implications related to its likely future track as compared to model forecasts. However, it is still weak and not tropical as of yet though organizing somewhat.
Opinions?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not seeing a lot of buoy evidence of a defined LLC, can't find any west winds.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

Speed it up, then follow the GA FL border straight out to what looks like it may be a developing LLC, or possibly a mid level circulation. Pretty far out and more in line with what the models were predicting.

If you look at the latest MIMIC loop this also hints at formation further east.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[tolakram]

Visible of where I think a center might be trying to form.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xironman]

Visible of where I think a center might be trying to form.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

These subtropical systems are usually pretty wide, put that mark 50 miles to the WSW and I think you have a hit.

[AJC3]

Visible of where I think a center might be trying to form.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think we have something like this going on...



...where the center will consolidate along that axis, perhaps near the midpoint...

[OuterBanker]

Yes, I agree. Looked as is center has been trying to form there since before lunch. Now seems to be forming the traditional comma shape with heavy convection bands feeding from the east and south. Also looks like llc feeder bands are starting near the center of the mlc. Good call on cancelling the recon this am. Does look like they will need it tomorrow.

[tolakram]

Makes sense, thanks AJC3.

[MGC]

Looks like the gulf stream is working its magic. 90L looks to be getting its act together.....MGC

[HurricaneTracker2031]

90L is weak but better organized today. This system has a small window of opportunity to do something and it approaching that cut-off date, Friday. Remember, conditions are expected to be more favorable tomorrow and Friday for this. Let's see then.



Synospsis for 90L and other systems: http://goo.gl/uuMJQs


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.