Texas Spring-2015

Shoshana · #1041 Postby **Shoshana** » Tue May 05, 2015 6:51 pm

Drizzle and thunder here. Prefer rain and no thunder thank you

#1042 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue May 05, 2015 9:38 pm

Portastorm...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC453-060515-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0009.150506T0221Z-150506T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 918 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AUSTIN
METRO AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY. A
RAINFALL OBSERVER LOCATED 3.9 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN
AUSTIN HAS REPORTED 2.66 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 2 TO 3 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AUSTIN METRO AREA THROUGH 10 PM CDT.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...PFLUGERVILLE...WINDEMERE...MANOR AND WELLS BRANCH.

weatherdude1108 · #1043 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Tue May 05, 2015 9:47 pm

Drove back from dinner around 7pm. Heavy rain and lots of lightning/thunder. Been raining moderately to heavy ever since, with periodic lighter rain. Rain gauge at 9:40pm showed 2.1 inches of liquid gold, and still raining. Backyard full of puddles. But very nice!

Edit: 3.44 inches in the gauge at 7am this morning. I am saturated. :wink:

Peanut432 · #1044 Postby **Peanut432** » Wed May 06, 2015 8:14 am

Spc says a substantial severe weather threat may evolve for Saturday across parts of Texas and Oklahoma.

weatherdude1108 · #1045 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Wed May 06, 2015 8:34 am

As usual.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ewx/ ... _full5.png

Peanut432 · #1046 Postby **Peanut432** » Wed May 06, 2015 8:39 am

^^^^Thats just crazy

Shoshana · #1047 Postby **Shoshana** » Wed May 06, 2015 9:13 am

weatherdude1108 wrote:As usual.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ewx/ ... _full5.png

We had 4.5" overnight. Obviously we're in the pink area.

#1048 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed May 06, 2015 10:43 am

The PWC didn't do as well in last night's rain derby as others mentioned here but I feel like we still "won" by getting about 2.7" of liquid gold. I love El Nino!

Shoshana · #1049 Postby **Shoshana** » Wed May 06, 2015 11:47 am

Portastorm wrote:The PWC didn't do as well in last night's rain derby as others mentioned here but I feel like we still "won" by getting about 2.7" of liquid gold. I love El Nino!

Long time no see! Glad y'all got some of that rain!

I was surprised when I went out and checked - I heard it rain but didn't realize how hard it was raining

#1050 Postby **TheProfessor** » Wed May 06, 2015 5:54 pm

Crazy stuff going on in Oklahoma and Kansas right now, Saturday might be interesting, the Greensburg Kansas Tornado showed up on Saturday's analogs for the southern plains.

Shoshana · #1051 Postby **Shoshana** » Wed May 06, 2015 6:03 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Crazy stuff going on in Oklahoma and Kansas right now, Saturday might be interesting, the Greensburg Kansas Tornado showed up on Saturday's analogs for the southern plains.

Yeah, there's a live feed from a helicopter of the tornado in Norman.

weatherdude1108 · #1052 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Wed May 06, 2015 9:02 pm

Bob Rose:

"We are in the in the midst of a wet pattern that shows no signs of letting up anytime soon."

El Nino.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Website · #1053 Postby **Brent** » Wed May 06, 2015 9:38 pm

Still aggressive... I suspect the weekend is gonna be real fun:

#1054 Postby **TheProfessor** » Wed May 06, 2015 11:57 pm

A lot of rain falling on the Red river counties. I saw some radar indicated 10 inches in a spot.

#1055 Postby **gboudx** » Thu May 07, 2015 9:16 am

Here's an update from jeff for you SETX folks. He also gave an update on Invest 90L, but that won't impact TX so I left it off.

Active overnight into morning period from a single slow moving thunderstorm. Band of excessive rainfall occurred from central Lee County to northern Waller County with a maximum of over 8.0 inches recorded just NW of Hempstead which matches well with the radar reading in that area. Very moist air mass continues to stream into the region and is certainly responsible for excessive rainfall rates as seen this morning.

Very little change in the overall pattern as the upper level flow is blocked resulting in slow progression of storm systems. Main severe and heavy rainfall threats will remain N and W of SE TX, but cannot rule out a rouge slow moving cell dropping several inches of rainfall in a short period of time over the next 2-3 days. Best chances would be NW of a Columbus to Lake Livingston line where Gulf ridging influences are least.

By late this weekend into early next week the upper pattern begins to change allowing better lift to move into SE TX along with the potential for the arrival of a slow moving cool front. A surface trigger is one of the main key components keeping widespread thunderstorms from developing over the next few days and this factor looks to come into place by early next week. Certainly looks stormy late Sunday-Tuesday of next week with severe weather and heavy rainfall possible.

#1056 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu May 07, 2015 9:51 am

Boundary is sagging along I-20. Guidance is clustering storms later today and training them. Like the past several days any place that they move over will experience flooding and some big rainfall totals, last night was around the Wichita Falls area. This will be the theme through the weekend, though the rain then will likely be more widespread.

Pretty crazy how 5+ inch rainfall totals have been so common this year in Texas and the southern plains.

#1057 Postby **gboudx** » Thu May 07, 2015 10:00 am

Ntxw wrote:Boundary is sagging along I-20. Guidance is clustering storms later today and training them. Like the past several days any place that they move over will experience flooding and some big rainfall totals. This will be the theme through the weekend, though the rain then will likely be more widespread.

Do you know if there is a hi-res model(s) that can forecast to Sunday yet? I checked the HRRR and I don't see it extending beyond later today. But later today it's putting out some good rain north of I-20.

#1058 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu May 07, 2015 10:03 am

gboudx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Boundary is sagging along I-20. Guidance is clustering storms later today and training them. Like the past several days any place that they move over will experience flooding and some big rainfall totals. This will be the theme through the weekend, though the rain then will likely be more widespread.

Do you know if there is a hi-res model(s) that can forecast to Sunday yet? I checked the HRRR and I don't see it extending beyond later today. But later today it's putting out some good rain north of I-20.

Not that I know of most only go out to 48 hours.

#1059 Postby **TheProfessor** » Thu May 07, 2015 11:25 am

Larry Cosgrove thinks DFW could see some high impacts on Saturday whether it's severe weather or flooding.

Website · #1060 Postby **Brent** » Thu May 07, 2015 11:34 am

We haven't seen a day 3(or even a day 1! like this) this year:

Let's not write off today though... it just went enhanced to our NW:

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