ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

It's clearly a subtropical storm, just as expected. The only question is when the NHC will call it "Ana".

[Jam151]

It would require a very loose subtropical definition by the NHC to see this get classified. SSTS are marginal and I won't even begin to mention how baroclinic water vapor looks. But NHC seems to love these setups over recent years.

[tolakram]

I don't follow you on how barclonic the WV looks, can you explain?

Live WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=wv&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

latest

[TheStormExpert]

TFCA issued JTWC

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/3324/07dgIr.gif

http://imageshack.com/a/img538/4305/8oyUcT.jpg

That box looks too far south.

[tolakram]

GOES is faster scan mode so here si a 30 frame loop. Speed up for full effect. Dare I say the center, such that it is, is being pulled closer to the convection?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

[wxman57]

NHC just tweeted that they are not upgrading 90L this morning.

[cycloneye]

Here is the tweet.

Retweeted Natl Hurricane Ctr (@NHC_Atlantic):

NHC is not issuing advisories on the low off the southeastern U.S. coast at 11 am. ‪#‎AL90

[tropicwatch]

Why is there not a floater for it?

[USTropics]

Why is there not a floater for it?

While there's no floater designated by SSD on NOAA's server for 90L, there is one on RAMDIS:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

CIMSS also:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

[weatherwindow]

TFCA issued JTWC

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/3324/07dgIr.gif

http://imageshack.com/a/img538/4305/8oyUcT.jpg

That box looks too far south.

Was issued 05/06 1800Z or 1400EDT....TFCAs are reevaluated(ie updated or dropped) every 24hrs....at the above time, moving north at 5kts...expect it to be reissued further north around 1400hrs today.....Rich

[CrazyC83]

Recon went through the pressure center about 20 minutes ago. No circulation at all there.

[jaguarjace]

Why is there not a floater for it?

NOAA is doing some testing so a temporary floater was set up here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[RL3AO]

It probably gets upgraded in the next 24 hours. Theres very little temp gradient across the system and it never had any fronts to shed. It also has some convection near the center. I agree with wxman57 that this is subtropical. Haven't checked recon to see how the circulation looks. Once it has a well defined circulation it should be upgraded.

[NDG]

Recon went through the pressure center about 20 minutes ago. No circulation at all there.

It does have a closed circulation but it is broad at this time.

[MGC]

GOES is faster scan mode so here si a 30 frame loop. Speed up for full effect. Dare I say the center, such that it is, is being pulled closer to the convection?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

Looks to me that an eddy is rotating about a larger gyre. Give 90L a day longer to get better organized......MGC

[NDG]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071741
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 210
miles south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border
is now producing 40-45 mph winds mainly to the north and west of the
center. Environmental conditions are favorable for some additional
development, and any increase in the organization of the associated
thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a subtropical
cyclone. The low is expected to drift to the north or north-
northwest over the next couple of days, and interests along the
southeastern coast of the United States should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain
is expected over portions of the coastal southeastern United States
for the next few days. For additional information, see products
from your local National Weather Service forecast office and High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system is scheduled for 8
PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2015050718, , BEST, 0, 312N, 775W, 40, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 140, 80, 80, 140, 1016, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[chaser1]

What a difference a few days makes? Days ago, the 200mb flow looked like a roller-coaster over Florida and the S.E. U.s., and now we have an area off the S.E. Conus with very light 10kt winds. Per the 12Z GFS, the flow overhead remains light, albeit "forecast" to remain essentially cyclonic (as opposed to evidence of an upper anticyclone...yet). Of course an increase in convection might expand the difluent outflow, both of which being contributing characteristics toward NHC's potential classification of 90L becoming tropical. Still going to take a little time for the core to warm a bit more and wouldn't think all that much is going to transition this afternoon or evening. Even an increase in center co-located convection may be very transient and subject to diurnal fluctuation. I wouldn't guess NHC would classify the system "Ana" before tomm. a.m. (famous last words.... LOL!)

[JonathanBelles]

@NHC_Atlantic 30 seconds ago
NHC will not be initiating advisories for the low off the southeast U.S. coast at 5 PM. Advisories could begin at 11 PM.

[Dean_175]

Ascat shows closed broad circulation. IR sat. imagery shows some sustained convection- but not quite fully organized around the center.