WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Southeasterly shear seems to be abating as evidence by increased banding, convection, and overall improved organization...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAY 2015 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 3:28:08 N Lon : 160:26:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1007.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.9 3.3

Center Temp : -68.9C Cloud Region Temp : -74.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.5 degrees

[euro6208]

7 out of 7...Upgraded to the 7th TS of the season...

07W SEVEN 150507 1200 3.4N 160.6E WPAC 35 996

EDIT:

Looks like it won't get upgraded as winds were decreased to 30 knots...

[euro6208]

JMA passes Dolphin south of Guam



CMC goes south over Guam



EURO most southerly and calling for a monster typhoon in the P.I sea




GFS also more southerly misses Guam and weaker

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 071039Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND A PARTIAL 071039Z ASCAT PASS. TD 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A ZONE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AND
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXERT A
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE AND EVENTUALLY REDIRECT THE SYSTEM
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN, UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER, SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE TO TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM SPEED THROUGH AND AFTER THE TURN. THE
CURRENT NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON NOTED MODEL SPREAD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TD 07W WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK SPEED
CARRIES FORWARD INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has Dolphin threatening bigtime Luzon but from there it turns north.

[Yellow Evan]

I would have gone 35 though since ADT kinda sucks for these systems, it is debatable.

[cycloneye]

Still TD 07W and still moving to the unusual SE direction but soon the ridge will establish for the system to start moving NW.



WDPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1155
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION ON A
071559Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 07W IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AND
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO ASSUME STEERING
AND EVENTUALLY REDIRECT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 36. AS
THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH
PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE TO TYPHOON
INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF FORECAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM MOTION DURING THE INTIAL PHASE, THERE IS
OVERALL A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 072105
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 AM CHST FRI MAY 8 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP...MOKIL AND
SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI STATE...AND FOR KOSRAE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE...AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD CAREFULLY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...2.9N 161.6E

ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 355 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHEAST...125 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 2.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.6 EAST. 07W
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEAST
TODAY...THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD POHNPEI TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 072148
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
748 AM CHST FRI MAY 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW A LARGE CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE MARIANAS FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE TRADES. SEAS AT
THE IPAN BUOY ARE ABOUT 4 FEET. MEANWHILE TD 07W IS CENTERED OVER
1300 MILES ESE OF GUAM...STILL MOVING ESE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
APART FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. WITH TD 07 SO FAR AWAY...WEATHER HERE IN
THE MARIANAS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...THE
FORECAST HINGES ON HOW TD 07W DEVELOPS AND MOVES.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
LEFT MARINE GRIDS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEAS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RISE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PROVIDED TD
07W EVER GETS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION. HAZARDOUS SURF IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY BY MONDAY ALONG EAST FACING REEFS.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
AS OF 5 AM...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W APPEARS POORLY ORGANIZED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH CONVECTION FLARING RANDOMLY OVER
AND NORTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. TD 07W IS STILL MOVING ESE...AND
HAS MADE NO OBVIOUS TURN TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST YET. WARNING
NUMBER 5 JUST OUT FROM JTWC STILL HAS 07W MAKING A TIGHT LEFT TURN
TODAY AND TONIGHT SO THAT IT WOULD ALREADY BE MOVING NORTHWEST BY
4 AM SATURDAY. BUT THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN ALL THIS IS
HIGH...AND UNTIL 07W ACTUALLY MAKES THE TURN AND STARTS MOVING
NORTHWEST IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST ITS TRACK WITH
CONFIDENCE. EVERYONE FROM KOSRAE TO THE MARIANAS WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS ONE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE EASTERN END OF A MONSOON TROUGH PERSISTS NEAR 3N SOUTH OF
POHNPEI...KOSRAE AND MAJURO. EMBEDDED ALONG THIS MONSOON TROUGH ARE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE NEAR 3N161E...
AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR TARAWA ATOLL AT 2N173E. NO MAJOR
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON EITHER SYSTEM TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES CONVERGING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 07W WILL
TRIGGER SPORADIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BOTH
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU THIS EVENING. WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FARTHER SOUTH OF MAJURO...DRIER TRADES SHOULD PROVIDE
MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW INCLEMENT
WEATHER NEAR 07W AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 07W TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IF SO...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON KOSRAE LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...AND ON POHNPEI BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD WITH
07W...IT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MAJURO
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD CLOSER TO MAJURO TONIGHT. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE THERE AS WELL. BY SUNDAY EVENING...07W
SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWEST OF BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. HOWEVER...
CONVERGING MONSOONAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THESE TWO PLACES THRU MONDAY. FOR
MAJURO...TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION THRU THIS
WEEKEND. THEN A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM FARTHER UPSTREAM
COULD PROLONG SHOWERY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF 07W ARE ALREADY
GENERATING SWELL TOWARD KOSRAE. THIS SWELL WILL SUSTAIN HAZARDOUS
SURF AND SEAS THERE THRU THIS EVENING. IF 07W BECOMES A TROPICAL
STORM TONIGHT...SURF AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD FURTHER AS IT PASSES
KOSRAE. HAZARDOUS SURF AND SEAS WILL ALSO REACH POHNPEI BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS 07W APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE THE SYSTEM
HAS PASSED NORTH OF BOTH LOCATIONS SUNDAY EVENING...CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH DRY TRADE WINDS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE
CHUUK THRU SATURDAY. AS THE MONSOON TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO CHUUK ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE.
THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE STATUS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LINGERING NEAR 15N NORTH OF CHUUK AND
POHNPEI. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR
07W IN THE SHORT TERM. AS 07W DRIFTS FARTHER NORTH OF 5N AFTER
SATURDAY...IT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF
THIS SAME FEATURE. FOR NOW...MODELS CONSENSUS BRINGS 07W JUST EAST
OF CHUUK ON SUNDAY. IF THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AS PREDICTED BY
THE MODELS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CHUUK TO EXPERIENCE TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SOMETIME DURING TUESDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH BUT MONSOONAL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INSTABILITY THERE.

THE WEAKER PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
TYPHOON NOUL OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA NEAR 17N131E WILL KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KOROR THRU THIS
EVENING. FOR YAP...THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF NOUL WILL SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER THRU TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY...A NEUTRAL AREA ALONG THE
WEAK MONSOON TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE NICE WEATHER NEAR KOROR. DRY
NORTHEAST TRADES WILL ALSO EXTEND PLEASANT CONDITIONS NEAR YAP THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS NEXT WEEK...THE STRONGER
EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL START TO TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW
07W WILL AFFECT YAP AND KOROR AT THIS POINT.

RESIDUAL WEST SWELL FROM TYPHOON NOUL WILL SUBSIDE FURTHER TODAY AND
ALLOW SURF ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE TO DROP BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN

[euro6208]

12Z GFS bottoming this out at 882 mb!

[euro6208]

Next name on the list...

Dolphin...

It's going to be very interesting to see how close this swims towards the islands...

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1178
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AS IT
APPEARED TO HAVE BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 072222Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 07W IS WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO ASSUME STEERING
AND EVENTUALLY REDIRECT THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO OPEN. THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER, SHOULD SUPPORT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 90 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STORM MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 080910
TCSWNP

A. 07W (NONAME)

B. 08/0832Z

C. 3.9N

D. 161.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .3 WH BAND. PT=2.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

seems to be tracking to the north now...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 080915
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 PM CHST FRI MAY 8 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W SOUTH OF KOSRAE...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN POHNPEI STATE
AND KOSRAE ARE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH OR MORE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE...AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.0N 162.2E

ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1355 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST...070 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.2 EAST.
07W IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
PINGELAP AND MOKIL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED IN AN ATYPICAL
EASTWARD DIRECTION BY ENHANCED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL, NEAR-EQUATORIAL
WESTERLY FLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 080532Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND A 080305Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TD 07W LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DEEP
CONVECTION OBSERVED IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND SETTLE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 36. NUMERIC MODELS ARE
IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPCOMING TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND ASSOCIATED TRACK SPEEDS. THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND
NOTED MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD, IN
TERMS OF TRACK DIRECTION AND SPEED, REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NO APPARENT PRIMARY GROUPING. THE CURRENT
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 081024
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST FRI MAY 8 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W NOW SOUTH OF KOSRAE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON KOSRAE...AND ON PINGELAP...MOKIL...SAPWUAFIK
(NGATIK)...PAKIN AND POHNPEI IN POHNPEI STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR KOSRAE WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PINGELAP AND MOKIL IN POHNPEI STATE WAS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POHNPEI AND PAKIN. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN
POHNPEI STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS
OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.0N 162.2E

ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAKIN
ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 1355 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST...070 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO TURN IN A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE ON IN A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS
TURN TO THE NORTH AND SO ISLANDS IN THE PATH OF TD07W NEED TO KEEP
ALERT TO ANY CHANGES TO THIS ONGOING SITUATION.

...KOSRAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AND PLENTY OF GASOLINE FOR
VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-
ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AFTER PASSAGE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W WILL LIKELY BRING
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF KOSRAE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK LATE SATURDAY MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED...
TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY VARY DEPENDING ON FORWARD MOTION OF THE
STORM...AND COULD BEGIN IN AS LITTLE AS 12 HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FEET TONIGHT...WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 14 FEET. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1
FOOT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

...PINGELAP AND MOKIL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. STAY IN A STURDY SHELTER AWAY
FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE...POSSIBLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DO
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED
AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...

AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD
LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TO PEAK OVER NIGHT SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS THE
CENTER OF TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER BOTH PINGELAP AND MOKIL.
WIND SPEED...TIMING AND DIRECTION MAY VARY DEPENDING ON FORWARD
MOTION OF THE STORM...AND COULD BEGIN IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SEAS MAY PEAK AT 15 FEET OR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 18 FEET.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

...POHNPEI AND PAKIN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD
AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AND PLENTY OF GASOLINE FOR VEHICLES AND
GENERATORS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. BE ALERT TO ANY CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED
AS THE EFFECTS OF TD07W MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED IF THE FORWARD
SPEED OF 07W MOVES FASTER THAN EXPECTED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD LAST INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF THE TRACK DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FEET OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEAS MAY PEAK AT 15 FEET OR MORE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF UP TO 18 FEET.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

...SAPWUAFIK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR STORM PREPAREDNESS PLAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS TD07W
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND...HOWEVER ANY SUDDEN
CHANGE IN THE PATH SOUTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK COULD PUT SAPWUAFIK
INTO THE EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL STORM. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD
AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS
FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
A SOUTHERLY DRIFT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 07W COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY ON
WEST AND NORTH FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF UP TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE/EDSON

[euro6208]

CMC takes this to Kosrae and passes north of Pohnpei...

Direct hit for Guam



EURO still passes Dolphin south of us and peak intensity...




GFS barely misses Kosrae recurving west of them then misses Pohnpei as it turns more northwesterly. Latest has Dolphin coming closer to Guam as it passes to the south but weaker likely a TS in the 990's mb range...Peak is 900 mb...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression 07W looks like is getting rid of the mess type system it was for the past 48 hours as a more rounded aspect is now present and also the movement to the east has stopped.It may be Tropical Storm Dolphin in a few hours if this organizing trend keeps up.The questions about the future track and intensity are three:

1-Is it going to slam the Marianas or go south of Guam?

2-How strong it may get at peak?

3-Is the cold wake left from Typhoon NOUL affects the intensity?