Texas Spring-2015

[gboudx]

I don't like how the MCS continues to put down nados as it moves towards the Metroplex.

[Texas Snowman]

Severe thunderstorm warning here in Grayson County for half-dollar sized hail and winds up to 60-mph.

Pounding rain right now.

[Annie Oakley]

I don't like when this type of weather happens at night. Hope everyone stays safe.

[Ntxw]

MCS

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hopefully the mine stays together and dont separate into individual cells. Heres the rain you guys wanted!!!

Be safe out there fellas. Update us as the line goes through

[Texas Snowman]

Just a relentless night of severe storms, pounding rains, some hail, incredible lightning and thunder and a little bit of high wind. Thankfully, the tornado threat was over by the time the storms moved into Grayson County.

Rainfall rates of up to two-inches per hour have fallen at times according to KXII-TV met Steve LaNore. Roads are flooding in many places around Sherman and Denison.

The Austin College Weather Station west of town has recorded 3.40-inches of rain so far tonight. For May, that site is sitting at 4.08 inches already. And since early-April, more than 12-inches of rain has fallen at that site.

Lake Texoma is more than a foot above normal and I'll bet it's going to shoot up very quickly given last night's flooding rains in the Washita River watershed up towards Oklahoma City and Chickasha; last night and today's rains out in the Red River watershed near Childress and Wichita Falls; and of course, all of the local stuff.

And it would seem that there is plenty more to come over the next few days.

If there was ever ANY doubt in Grayson County, the drought is OVER.

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS has tweeted that all lanes of I-35 are closed at MM 492 south of Gainesville due to major flooding.

Ray Roberts just hit the full mark in the last 24-hours, bet it's going to shoot up rapidly. One Tweet says radar estimates of up to seven-inches of rain in southern Cooke County.

[Texas Snowman]

Flooding on Hwy. 82 west of Sherman and on Hwy. 377 near Whitesboro.

[Ntxw]

Just a relentless night of severe storms, pounding rains, some hail, incredible lightning and thunder and a little bit of high wind. Thankfully, the tornado threat was over by the time the storms moved into Grayson County.

Rainfall rates of up to two-inches per hour have fallen at times according to KXII-TV met Steve LaNore. Roads are flooding in many places around Sherman and Denison.

The Austin College Weather Station west of town has recorded 3.40-inches of rain so far tonight. For May, that site is sitting at 4.08 inches already. And since early-April, more than 12-inches of rain has fallen at that site.

Lake Texoma is more than a foot above normal and I'll bet it's going to shoot up very quickly given last night's flooding rains in the Washita River watershed up towards Oklahoma City and Chickasha; last night and today's rains out in the Red River watershed near Childress and Wichita Falls; and of course, all of the local stuff.

And it would seem that there is plenty more to come over the next few days.

If there was ever ANY doubt in Grayson County, the drought is OVER.

NW Texas has taken a beating the past few days, where it's needed most as well as the Red River areas. Far from over, heaviest is still yet to come. From desertification talk (without understanding these cycles and climates) to now forestation of Texas. Amazing how ENSO controls the cycles. String together back to back Ninas and cold neutrals..drought. String together back to back Nino's..deluge.



Feb


Come Monday's update most of it will be confined to the eastern Panhandle while NW Texas improves significantly. For the rest of us, it's going to clear out. And now we put focus into flooding as the lakes and rivers are full, and seasonal guidance points towards more rain. Got to start thinking about shifting soils as well in time.

[Ntxw]

Yet to come

[JayDT]

How much rain could we potentially get from now thru Sunday?

[Brent]

How much rain could we potentially get from now thru Sunday?

I've seen a lot of predictions of 4-6"... but that'll likely be an average and some areas will get more(looking at radar estimates I see areas up around Gainesville already have 4-6").

a couple of these MCS's and we easily get that.

[Texas Snowman]

One thing that I've noticed in the last hour is that the radar is awfully quiet in the western half of North Texas, Oklahoma and the Panhandle. If that trend continues overnight and into tomorrow, I'd expect that the severe weather threat will be much more robust tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Tomorrow and Saturday could be big tornado days.

[JayDT]

How much rain could we potentially get from now thru Sunday?

I've seen a lot of predictions of 4-6"... but that'll likely be an average and some areas will get more(looking at radar estimates I see areas up around Gainesville already have 4-6").

a couple of these MCS's and we easily get that.

Whoa... So apart from severe weather, we also have to watch out for flooding if it does rain that much, or more than that?

[gboudx]

Update from jeff, with Subtropical Ana discussion removed:

Significant Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak:

Factors are coming together for a major severe weather and tornado outbreak across the southern and central plains on Saturday. Main threat region will extend from NC TX to KS. Intense supercell thunderstorms are forecasted to develop Saturday afternoon along a dry line over W OK into NC TX and move ENE Saturday evening. Wind profiles strongly support tornadic supercells with the potential for large long tracked life threatening tornadoes. This will likely be a significant tornado outbreak for OK, KS, and possibly N TX.

Next Week:
Active weather to our west and north has largely missed SE TX over the last several days, but this will change late in the weekend into much of next week. The large upper level storm system currently over CA will slide into the SW US and then into the southern plains early next week. This will push a slow moving frontal boundary into SE TX while at the same time copious moisture surges into the region from the Caribbean Sea. Numerous disturbances will begin to cross the area as early as late Sunday and mid level capping gradually erodes with cooling of the middle levels. A very wet and stormy period appears likely Monday-Wednesday of next week and possibly the entire week. Flooding rainfall appears the primary threat given PWS of 1.8 inches although the severe threat is also present. Possibly a return of our late April active weather pattern by early next week.

[Ntxw]

Another severe outbreak day for the southern plains centered along the Red River into Oklahoma that will probably bring another MCS towards NW and N Texas this afternoon and evening.

[Annie Oakley]

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrepindex.htm

with FEMA Region VI briefing

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082015.pdf

[TexasStorm]

If there was ever ANY doubt in Grayson County, the drought is OVER.

As most of the lakes in the north Texas watershed reach normal pool levels you would expect that water restrictions would be lifted. However I bet they never get lifted again. Maybe lowered to level 1 but not completely removed.

[Ntxw]

If there was ever ANY doubt in Grayson County, the drought is OVER.

As most of the lakes in the north Texas watershed reach normal pool levels you would expect that water restrictions would be lifted. However I bet they never get lifted again. Maybe lowered to level 1 but not completely removed.

Personally I think they should keep them at level 2 at least permanently. With the frequent rain expected folks shouldn't need to water that often anyhow and waste. Texas cities are growing fast we need to all better manage this resource like locations in the southwest.

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado watch up in parts of West Texas.