Texas Spring-2015

[Texas Snowman]

Pretty good area of thunderstorms building out in southern Panhandle near Lubbock. Not sure what that is going to mean for tornadic supercell development later this afternoon in the moderate risk area in western Oklahoma. I've seen opinions that if it continues to expand, it might cause SPC to reduce or eliminate moderate risk later on today.

At any rate, just noticed this tweet however for North Texas:

Cory Mottice ‏@EverythingWX · 16m16 minutes ago
HRRR starting to show run-to-run consistency with multiple rotating storms across N. TX this afternoon. #txwx

[Texas Snowman]

Lubbock NWS reports golfball sized hail and broken windshields in Plainview.

[TheProfessor]

Sun's out here, it shouldn't be too hard to push to 80 here soon. Today could definitely be interesting if storms fire up.

[Ntxw]

Mod risk being pulled further south and southwest into TX by SPC for today

[TheProfessor]

Hmm..m I wonder why they didn't include Collin County in the Tornado watch? Or even Tarrant. The actual watch box includes about 75% of Collin County about 50% of Tarrant and even includes Dallas. I guess they are going to wait and see if they needed to be added in later.

[TarrantWx]

Hmm..m I wonder why they didn't include Collin County in the Tornado watch? Or even Tarrant. The actual watch box includes about 75% of Collin County about 50% of Tarrant and even includes Dallas. I guess they are going to wait and see if they needed to be added in later.

Interesting that you mention that. First of all, we saw how well that worked out yesterday. But I was also thinking yesterday that it seems to happen quite often that the immediate metro gets left out of watches or winter wx warnings. And the media LOVES to say this does NOT include the metroplex. I understand that false alarms are costly but so is a false sense of security.

[TheProfessor]

You don't usually see flood warnings issued for entire counties here.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

TXC085-121-082145-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FA.W.0014.150508T1854Z-150508T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DENTON TX-COLLIN TX-
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 144 PM CDT...DENTON COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT
NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY WERE STILL CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODWATERS. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF COLLIN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR INDIAN CREEK WERE STILL EXPERIENCING FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY
RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY EVENING.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PLANO...MCKINNEY...CARROLLTON...FRISCO...DENTON...RICHARDSON...
LEWISVILLE...ALLEN...FLOWER MOUND...WYLIE...COPPELL...THE COLONY...
SOUTHLAKE...SACHSE...CORINTH...HIGHLAND VILLAGE...ADDISON...TROPHY
CLUB...LAKE DALLAS AND SANGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9639 3334 9638 3335 9629 3298 9630
3299 9740 3343 9738

$$

15-BAIN

[Texas Snowman]

@CBS11Larry: Lake Ray Roberts went up 34" in the past 24-hours. It is above pool stage by 3 feet now. http://t.co/MBUpLwjzke

[Texas Snowman]

@CBS11Larry: Lake Texoma wne tup 16" in the past 24 hours. It is 100% full and above pool level by 2.5 feet. http://t.co/ec7F5oJy4Q

[TheProfessor]

Dr. Greg Forbes is giving North Texas a 6 on his Tor-Con for tomorrow.

[TheProfessor]

The 18z soundings had Fort Worth approaching 4000 CAPE.

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado warnings beginning to pop up. Big cell up near Quannah has a big hook on it. Others out near Lubbock.

[Texas Snowman]

The 18z soundings had Fort Worth approaching 4000 CAPE.

Very warm, very humid outside. Not a lot of wind here at my house, but a totally different feel to the day than yesterday.

Atmosphere in North Texas has been untouched by convection today.

If/when supercells start to pop up this afternoon, I'd imagine things will get very interesting very quickly.

[JayDT]

I've seen a few TV mets on twitter saying that the storms might stay NW of the metro area?..

[TheProfessor]

Storm Northwest of Aspemont has turned to the east southeast and is moving towards the metroplex if it continues in this direction. It has a hook and know storm to disrupt inflow as of right now, we should probably keep an eye on it.

[Texas Snowman]

Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
OKC033-141-TXC485-487-082245-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0049.150508T2205Z-150508T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 505 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OKLAUNION...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN WICHITA FALLS...BURKBURNETT...IOWA PARK...ELECTRA...
GRANDFIELD...DAVIDSON...DEVOL...HARROLD...OKLAUNION...PLEASANT
VALLEY AND HAYNESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
STORM SHELTER... SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 9916 3425 9917 3432 9859 3411 9853
3392 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 272DEG 33KT 3412 9909

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

KURTZ

[Shoshana]

Hmm..m I wonder why they didn't include Collin County in the Tornado watch? Or even Tarrant. The actual watch box includes about 75% of Collin County about 50% of Tarrant and even includes Dallas. I guess they are going to wait and see if they needed to be added in later.

Latest watch

Tornado Watch
Statement as of 7:43 PM CDT on May 08, 2015

Tornado Watch 146 remains in effect until 300 am CDT for the
following locations

TX
. Texas counties included are

Collin Cooke Dallas
Delta Denton Fannin
Franklin Grayson Hopkins
Hunt Jack Lamar
Montague Palo Pinto Parker
Red River Rockwall Stephens
Tarrant Titus wise

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Potentially prolonged excessive rainfall event for a large part of TX next week.

Factors will be coming together over the weekend to produce several days of excessive rainfall across a large part of TX starting on Sunday and lasting through almost all of next week. Potential for river flooding and flash flooding is increasingly possible.

A slow moving and strong upper level storm system will settle into the SW US over the weekend while a strong fetch of southeasterly winds begins to bring deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea NW across the Gulf of Mexico and into TX by late Sunday. Upper level flow aloft will become increasingly SW over time allowing jet stream disturbances to ride across the region starting on Sunday and lasting all next week. Most important a slow moving/stalling front boundary will enter into the picture Monday and linger across the region much of next week interacting with the copious moisture in place and the disturbances aloft.

Expect numerous rounds of excessive rainfall starting as early as late Sunday, but most likely on Monday and lasting through all next week. Will not attempt at this point to indicate any time period for better rainfall production over another at this range. I am concerned with some of the model guidance attempting to develop a 850mb circulation over SC/C TX around Wednesday which would likely be somewhat warm core and behave like a tropical system in such a tropical air mass. Such systems in the past have produced “incredible” rainfall amounts and some of the most devastating floods in the past.

Total rainfall amounts from Sunday-next Friday will likely average 4-5 inches over much of SE/SC/C TX with isolated totals of 10-15 inches possible.

Hydro:
Grounds are already soggy over much of the state east of I-35 and several river systems are elevated from recent rainfall…especially the Brazos and Trinity. Forecasted rainfall next week along with the widespread nature on top of saturated grounds and elevated rivers is cause for concern. Such forecasted rainfall amounts on near normal flow conditions would likely result in rises to flood stage, so a very close watch on area rivers and watersheds will be needed next week.

Rainfall rates will be potentially excessive in the short term with PWS surging to 1.8 inches or greater early next week. Could easily see 2-4 inches per hour or even greater in slow moving/training convection leading to rapid flash flooding across C TX and in urban areas.

Of all the forecasted rainfall events this spring (and there have been several) this one has me the most concerned due to the stalling frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture suggesting repeat rounds of excessive rainfall.


7-Day Forecasted Rainfall Totals (QPF):

[Ntxw]

MCS

[weatherdude1108]

From jeff:

Potentially prolonged excessive rainfall event for a large part of TX next week.

Factors will be coming together over the weekend to produce several days of excessive rainfall across a large part of TX starting on Sunday and lasting through almost all of next week. Potential for river flooding and flash flooding is increasingly possible.

A slow moving and strong upper level storm system will settle into the SW US over the weekend while a strong fetch of southeasterly winds begins to bring deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea NW across the Gulf of Mexico and into TX by late Sunday. Upper level flow aloft will become increasingly SW over time allowing jet stream disturbances to ride across the region starting on Sunday and lasting all next week. Most important a slow moving/stalling front boundary will enter into the picture Monday and linger across the region much of next week interacting with the copious moisture in place and the disturbances aloft.

Expect numerous rounds of excessive rainfall starting as early as late Sunday, but most likely on Monday and lasting through all next week. Will not attempt at this point to indicate any time period for better rainfall production over another at this range. I am concerned with some of the model guidance attempting to develop a 850mb circulation over SC/C TX around Wednesday which would likely be somewhat warm core and behave like a tropical system in such a tropical air mass. Such systems in the past have produced “incredible” rainfall amounts and some of the most devastating floods in the past.

Total rainfall amounts from Sunday-next Friday will likely average 4-5 inches over much of SE/SC/C TX with isolated totals of 10-15 inches possible.

Hydro:
Grounds are already soggy over much of the state east of I-35 and several river systems are elevated from recent rainfall…especially the Brazos and Trinity. Forecasted rainfall next week along with the widespread nature on top of saturated grounds and elevated rivers is cause for concern. Such forecasted rainfall amounts on near normal flow conditions would likely result in rises to flood stage, so a very close watch on area rivers and watersheds will be needed next week.

Rainfall rates will be potentially excessive in the short term with PWS surging to 1.8 inches or greater early next week. Could easily see 2-4 inches per hour or even greater in slow moving/training convection leading to rapid flash flooding across C TX and in urban areas.

Of all the forecasted rainfall events this spring (and there have been several) this one has me the most concerned due to the stalling frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture suggesting repeat rounds of excessive rainfall.


7-Day Forecasted Rainfall Totals (QPF):

It sounds like the Highland Lakes watershed may see a rise. Lake Travis can hold 50 more feet of floodwaters until it reaches its conservation pool of 681 feet. It is at around 630 feet right now.

http://www.lcra.org/water/floods/pages/ ... loods.aspx