ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
Still, 10 second winds of 40 kts at the surface (SFMR) supports only about 35 kts 1-minute winds.
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
Vortex:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 11:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 11:13:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°27'N 77°29'W (31.45N 77.4833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,426m (4,678ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 34kts (From the NE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) which was observed 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:40:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 1kts (From the ENE at 1mph)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 11:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 11:13:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°27'N 77°29'W (31.45N 77.4833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,426m (4,678ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 34kts (From the NE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) which was observed 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:40:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 1kts (From the ENE at 1mph)
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
Winds appear to be in the 35-40kt range (1-min) based on the first recon pass. 10-sec winds were a little over 40 kts.


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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray
So what is making Ana sub-tropical? Looks like a poorly organized tropical storm to me, with most of the convection very close to the center.
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So what is making Ana sub-tropical? Looks like a poorly organized tropical storm to me, with most of the convection very close to the center.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
tolakram wrote:Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray
So what is making Ana sub-tropical? Looks like a poorly organized tropical storm to me, with most of the convection very close to the center.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am sure it is going to change soon, especially since it is going to be over the warm loop current at least over the next 36 hrs.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
The only TS-strength winds appear to be in the SE quadrant. About 30kts in the NW quadrant, 25-30 kts NE and 20-25kts SW. It's over a very narrow band of 26C water, which is barely warm enough to support tropical development. It remains to be seen if Ana's winds can intensify. So far, its peak was yesterday afternoon.
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
Weird because we have been abnormally cool and dry down here the past few days. Interesting way-early feature.
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
As I mentioned pressure is now down to 1001 mb, center moved closer to the convection.
URNT12 KNHC 081401
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012015
A. 08/13:18:00Z
B. 31 deg 28 min N
077 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. 34 kt
E. 359 deg 27 nm
F. 144 deg 37 kt
G. 010 deg 33 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 13 C / 1523 m
J. 16 C / 1523 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0301A ANA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 56 KT 147 / 70 NM 11:40:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KT 227 / 82 NM 13:48:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200/10 KT
;
URNT12 KNHC 081401
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012015
A. 08/13:18:00Z
B. 31 deg 28 min N
077 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. 34 kt
E. 359 deg 27 nm
F. 144 deg 37 kt
G. 010 deg 33 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 13 C / 1523 m
J. 16 C / 1523 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0301A ANA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 56 KT 147 / 70 NM 11:40:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KT 227 / 82 NM 13:48:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200/10 KT
;
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
Strange spike well above FL winds in the SW quadrant. Probably not representative of the true surface wind. No TS winds in the NE or NW quadrants this morning.


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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
wxman57 wrote:Strange spike well above FL winds in the SW quadrant. Probably not representative of the true surface wind. No TS winds in the NE or NW quadrants this morning.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Ana2.gif
I am sure it was rain contaminated.
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
Sanibel wrote:Weird because we have been abnormally cool and dry down here the past few days. Interesting way-early feature.
That's because the flow around the backside of Ana is bringing down dry air out of the NW. Still expected to warm into the mid/upper 80's with low 70's as lows here in Eastern Palm Beach County, which some inland pop up showers/storms each afternoon and evening.
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Re: ATL: ANA - Subtropical Storm
At the speed that Ana is moving it's going to be the start of the season before it reaches land anyway.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:These early tropical storms out of non-tropical lows do not provide hints to the hurricane season at all. 1992 had an April storm - and only 6 more (one of which, of course, was Andrew).
I will chime in on 1992 to say that there were probably at least a few storms that will be added if the reanalysis goes that far.
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